core view
Since the beginning of 2022, the performance of A-Shares has been gloomy. Under the interweaving of internal and external bad news, the broad-based index suffered a sharp decline in the week before the Spring Festival, the agitation did not come, and the market doubts were further deepened. During the Lunar New Year holiday, overseas market sentiment generally warmed up. What will A-Shares do after the festival?
during the Spring Festival, the peripheral risk appetite generally warmed up
Before the festival, peripheral bad news occurred frequently, the market wait-and-see mood was strong, and the A-share index continued to decline. During the long holiday, when the stock markets of major developed countries stabilized and rebounded and the rise of US bond yields slowed down, the risk appetite of peripheral markets rebounded as a whole, and technology stocks regained their rise. The performance of S & P 500 and Nasdaq outperformed the Dow Jones index, both rebounded by more than 4%, while the European stock market, which had previously become a global safe haven, fell slightly. Asia Pacific stock markets generally rose, with A50 futures up more than 2% and Hang Seng Index up more than 3%, while Japan and South Korea stock markets rose 4.9% and 5.2% respectively.
Market characteristics of lunar year: resumption of historical market
From the historical experience, the period from the Spring Festival to the eve of the two sessions is one of the best long window periods in the whole year. Since 2010, the rise probability of the all a index between the Spring Festival and the two sessions has reached more than 70%, and the average and median rise and fall have exceeded 2.5%; At the same time, A-Shares rose one month before the Spring Festival in 2013, 2019 and 2020. If compared with the decline in January 2022, excluding relevant years, the probability of rise of the broad-based index will reach 100%.
Further observe the restless market of the lunar year over the years and summarize several characteristics: 1) from the perspective of yield, all kinds of indexes have a high probability of positive return during the market of the lunar year; 2) From the perspective of style, overvalued value undervalued value, small cap Market and growth value are relatively dominant, that is, the market is more inclined to offensive sectors; 3) Taking the time point of the Spring Festival as the axis, the relatively dominant time points of overvalued value, small cap and growth stocks are mainly concentrated in 6-8 trading days before and after the Spring Festival, which is also the main period in which the offensive style is dominant; 4) From the perspective of risk return ratio, during the market period of the lunar new year, the science and technology and raw materials sectors are dominant, while the transportation, resources and energy sectors perform relatively poorly.
there is no agitation, but there is no need to be pessimistic. The market of the Lunar New Year may open
First, recent fluctuations in US bond interest rates have converged, overseas risk appetite has stabilized and warmed up, and peripheral shocks have been basically released; Secondly, with the successive landing of interest rate and reserve requirement cuts in recent years, macro liquidity has been further abundant; The amount of public offering has stabilized and rebounded since mid January, and the lack of incremental funds in the short term is expected to be alleviated; Moreover, with the recent decline in the interest rates of the stock market and treasury bonds, the equity risk premium of the broad-based index has risen to + 1 times the standard deviation area, and the cost performance of stock bond allocation has gradually emerged; Finally, historical experience shows that the market risk appetite has improved significantly from the Spring Festival to the two sessions, and the overall performance of A-Shares is not poor. The market is expected to fall at the end of the lunar year, and the market is expected to start in February.
the short-term style may enter the balance period, and the high and undervalued values are expected to usher in a resonant rebound. In the medium term, steady growth is still the main line of the quarterly level. the repressive force of early growth stocks has been released in the near future. In the short term, growth stocks are expected to usher in a weekly oversold rebound, and the market style has entered a balance period. In the medium-term dimension, with the stabilization of the credit environment, the upward repair of the m1-ppi scissors gap, and the expected warming of policy sustainability at the time of increasing growth pressure in the first half of the year, under the fundamental pricing logic, steady growth will still be the largest beta main line in Q1, and value stocks are expected to continue to lead.
strategy suggestions and industry recommendations
(I) credit conditions have been stabilized in a real sense, m1-ppi continues to be repaired upward, and there is room for further easing policies. Steady growth is still the largest beta main line in Q1. High quality banks, state-owned enterprise developers and buildings / building materials are recommended; （2） After the festival, the market risk appetite is expected to improve, and the short-term dimension recommends the communication and computer driven by the concept of digital economy in the direction of new infrastructure development; （3） Home appliances with reversed upstream costs and airports benefiting from the opening-up policy.
risk tips : 1. The epidemic is out of control; 2. A sharp recession; 3. The policy has changed more than expected.
monthly strategy report
I. strategic point of view: the market of the lunar new year opens
Since the beginning of 2022, the performance of A-Shares has been gloomy. The Shanghai index closed down 7.6% in the whole January. The monthly decline of small and medium-sized indexes represented by China Securities 500 and China Securities 1000 exceeded 10%. The large market value stocks were relatively resistant to decline, but the monthly decline also reached more than 5 points. Intertwined with internal and external bad news, the broad-based index suffered a sharp decline in the week before the Spring Festival, and the market doubts were further deepened. During the Lunar New Year holiday, overseas market sentiment generally warmed up. What will A-Shares do after the festival?
1.1. During the long Spring Festival holiday, the peripheral risk appetite generally warmed up
before the festival, there were frequent negative outliers, strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and the A-share index continued to decline. under the continuous disturbance of the periphery one week before the spring holiday, the risk appetite of A-Shares fell significantly: the tension between Russia and Ukraine continued to escalate; The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January once again strengthened the expectation of raising interest rates and reducing bonds; The overseas equity market fluctuated violently due to the impact of the above events, and the US dollar index and US bond interest rate strengthened simultaneously. Under the continuous impact of external risks, out of the concern that the long time window of the Spring Festival holiday may bring greater uncertainty, the market has a strong wait-and-see mood before the festival, the market has accelerated the decline, the transaction volume of the two cities has shrunk to less than trillion, and the funds going north have also been transferred out, with an outflow of more than 10 billion for two consecutive days.
during the Spring Festival, global market sentiment generally warmed up and peripheral risk appetite continued to repair. during the holiday, when the A-share market was closed, the stock markets of major developed countries stabilized and rebounded, and the rising pace of U.S. bond yields slowed down, the risk appetite of peripheral markets rebounded as a whole, and technology stocks regained gains. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq outperformed the Dow Jones index, both rebounding by more than 4%, while the European stock market, which had previously become a global safe haven, fell slightly. Asia Pacific stock markets generally rose, with A50 futures up more than 2% and Hang Seng Index up more than 3%, while Japan and South Korea stock markets rose 4.9% and 5.2% respectively.
1.2 market characteristics of the lunar new year -- resumption of historical market from the Spring Festival to the two sessions
from the Spring Festival to the two sessions is one of the best long window periods of the year. according to historical experience, February is the period with the highest yield and winning rate of A-Shares in a year, and this period often corresponds to the Spring Festival to the eve of the two sessions - on the one hand, there is a demand for funds to return to the market after the long Spring Festival holiday, on the other hand, it comes from the expectation of policy warming brought by the two sessions. Since 2010, the rise probability of the all a index between the Spring Festival and the two sessions has reached more than 70%, and the average and median of the rise and fall have exceeded 2.5%; At the same time, A-Shares rose one month before the Spring Festival in 2013, 2019 and 2020. If compared with the decline in January 2022, excluding relevant years, the probability of rise of the broad-based index will reach 100%.
In conclusion, the period from the Spring Festival to the two sessions is a long window period with excellent risk return ratio.
further, observing the restless market of the lunar year over the years (taking the market window of the lunar year from after the Spring Festival to before the two sessions as the market window of the lunar year), we summarize the following characteristics: 1) from the perspective of yield, all kinds of indexes have a high probability of positive return during the market of the lunar year; 2) From the perspective of style, overvalued value undervalued value, small cap Market and growth value are relatively dominant, that is, the market is more inclined to offensive sectors; 3) Taking the time point of the Spring Festival as the axis, the relatively dominant time points of overvalued value, small cap and growth stocks are mainly concentrated in 6-8 trading days before and after the Spring Festival, which is also the main period in which the offensive style is dominant; 4) From the perspective of risk return ratio, during the market period of the lunar new year, the science and technology and raw materials sectors are dominant, while the transportation, resources and energy sectors perform relatively poorly.
1.3. There is no agitation, but there is no need to be pessimistic. The market of the Lunar New Year may open
in conclusion, the correction of the stock market since the beginning of 2022 is due to the impact of internal and external resonance. for China, with the lack of incremental funds, the market has doubts about the landing effect of steady growth, which eventually led to the resonant fall of growth track stocks and steady growth sectors before the festival; Overseas, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates has been continuously strengthened, and the US bond yield has risen sharply. At the same time, the global risk aversion has heated up, which has significantly disturbed the Chinese market, especially the growth sector with high valuation.
looking back, there is no need to be pessimistic in the equity market. The market of the lunar year of the tiger may open. first, the recent fluctuations in US bond interest rates have converged, overseas risk appetite has stabilized and warmed up, and peripheral shocks have been basically released; Secondly, with the recent interest rate and reserve requirement cuts by the central bank, macro liquidity has been further abundant; The amount of public offering has stabilized and rebounded since mid January, and the lack of incremental funds in the short term is expected to be alleviated; Moreover, with the recent decline in the interest rates of the stock market and treasury bonds, the equity risk premium of the broad-based index has risen to + 1 times the standard deviation area, and the cost performance of stock bond allocation has gradually emerged; Finally, historical experience shows that the market risk appetite has improved significantly from the Spring Festival to the two sessions, and the overall performance of A-Shares is not poor. Judging from various factors, it is expected that the market decline in the short term has entered the final stage, and the market will open in February.
the short-term style may enter the balance period, and the high and undervalued values are expected to usher in a resonant rebound. In the medium term, steady growth is still the main line of the quarterly level. the repressive force of growth stocks in the early stage has slowed down in the near future. The positive factors of the growth sector include the convergence of US bond interest rate fluctuations in the periphery, the re favor of US stock growth sector, the admission of China's incremental funds, the effect of steady growth policy has not yet appeared, and the phased dominance of performance factors in the annual report period. In the short term, growth stocks are expected to usher in a weekly oversold rebound, The market style has entered a balance period. In the medium-term dimension, with the stabilization of the credit environment, the upward repair of the m1-ppi scissors gap, and the expected warming of policy sustainability at the time of increasing growth pressure in the first half of the year, under the fundamental pricing logic, steady growth will still be the largest beta main line in Q1.
strategy suggestions and industry recommendations: (I) credit conditions have been stabilized in a real sense, m1-ppi continues to repair upward, there is room for further easing policies, steady growth is still the largest beta main line in Q1, and high-quality banks, state-owned enterprise developers, buildings / building materials are recommended; （2） After the festival, the market risk appetite is expected to improve, and the short-term dimension recommends the communication and computer driven by the concept of digital economy in the direction of new infrastructure development; （3） Home appliances with reversed upstream costs and airports benefiting from the opening-up policy.
II. Industry comparison: industry allocation ideas and key industry recommendations in 2022
2.1. Banks & state-owned enterprise developers: banks may welcome the "small peak" of credit, and the bottom of real estate confirmation policy
the bottom-up and correction policies are constantly implemented, and social finance credit is expected to "stabilize first", and banks may be restless in the spring season. at present, the general direction of policy correction and stability maintenance is relatively clear, which is conducive to the mitigation of relevant risks. In addition, Q1 has always been the peak of credit supply. When banks increase credit reserves ahead of time in 2022, it is expected that 22q1 credit may usher in a "small peak", and the credit environment has the opportunity to improve, so as to promote the valuation repair of the banking sector.
real estate confirmed the end of the policy, accelerated the clearing and improved the industry pattern. the tone of "no speculation in housing and housing" has not been changed, but from the two "maintenance" of the central bank to the re mention of "implementing policies for cities" at the central economic work conference, the real estate policy has been gradually confirmed at the end of the year. Under the demand of stable growth, the policy has been followed up or further marginal loosening. At the same time, the financial difficulties of the industry have accelerated the market-oriented settlement, and the policy has continuously emphasized encouraging high-quality real estate enterprises to collect and acquire, which has also ushered in the improvement of the industry pattern.
2.2. Construction & Building Materials: capital construction force, expected temperature rise drives valuation repair
the necessity of infrastructure development has been improved, and the valuation of buildings has been improved. as an important tool of counter cyclical regulation, infrastructure afterburner has the necessity and objective conditions. The intensive issuance at the end of this year and the early approval of special bond funds next year are expected to form a joint force to promote the improvement of infrastructure investment in the first half of next year, and the construction sector is expected to continue to meet the momentum of valuation improvement. Under the tone of structural adjustment, the new infrastructure represented by new energy infrastructure will be an important direction, focusing on the construction of new power system and energy conservation and carbon reduction projects of central enterprises.
counter cyclical demand, the bottom of real estate policy and the relief of cost pressure jointly drive the profit restoration of building materials. steady growth strengthens the rising momentum of the infrastructure chain, and the counter cyclical demand represented by cement is expected to stabilize and rebound; Under the tone of maintaining stability, the real estate policy confirms the end of the policy, and the real estate may be repaired after the cycle; PPI tends to peak, and the decline in raw material prices will help improve profits from the cost side.
2.3. Scenery & energy storage: scenery has maintained a high boom, and the demand for energy storage has increased rapidly
industrial chain factors may drive the upward demand for photovoltaic, and the wind power valuation center is still expected to improve. the price reduction expectation of silicon material is gradually released, and the superposition of the price reduction of silicon wafer in the early stage is expected to promote the upward demand for photovoltaic installation. In 2021, China's wind turbine bidding is obviously large, and the demand for wind power is expected to maintain a high growth. The problems of superimposed wind power consumption, abandonment and power limitation continue to improve, and the valuation of wind power is expected to rise further.
new energy penetration stimulates the demand for energy storage, and policies boost the growth of new energy storage. with the rapid increase of the proportion of fluctuating power sources such as photovoltaic and wind power, and the rapid growth of power demand, the energy storage demand with flexible regulation ability will usher in a centralized outbreak. Electrochemical energy storage, especially lithium energy storage, has a wide range of application scenarios and excellent comprehensive performance, which is an important direction of new energy storage. With the gradual implementation of China's new energy storage supporting policies, China's new energy storage will grow rapidly during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
2.4. Automobile & household appliances: the marginal supply of automobile chips is improved, and the pressure on the cost side of household appliances is relieved
the decline in raw material prices and the improvement in the marginal supply of automobile chips are expected to significantly benefit the automobile industry, especially the parts industry. from the perspective of industry, the newly listed models need to be developed and suppliers determined in advance. It is difficult for traditional car enterprises to quickly realize the transformation of intelligent electric vehicles, while auto parts can quickly enter the industrial chain of new energy vehicles, so as to give priority to benefits.
ease the pressure on the cost side of household appliances, and pay attention to domestic small household appliances and white electricity. the pressure of raw material cost in the early stage has seriously squeezed the profits of the household appliance industry, and the decline of commodity prices is expected to promote the reversal of white electricity fundamentals. Focus on domestic small household appliances: the bargaining power of small household appliances is weak, the impact will be more serious in 2021, and the subsequent profit elasticity will be stronger. Considering the peak consumption of overseas durable goods, domestic and foreign enterprises will usher in differentiation.
2.5. Media: the valuation is in the bottom range, and the meta universe catalytic repair market
the valuation is at the bottom of history, the performance is expected to return to steady growth, and the allocation cost performance is gradually highlighted. after experiencing the impact of intensive policies in 2021, the valuation of the media sector is at the bottom of history, but the impact of the policies on the income of some industries (such as games and long video Membership Business) is limited. After the subsequent normalization, the fundamentals are strong, the company is expected to return to stable growth, and the stocks with good fundamentals for a long time have reached a better price position from the perspective of medium-term allocation.
the concept of meta universe continues to catalyze the repair of media valuation. from the perspective of policy, the Secretary of Shanghai municipal Party Committee stressed the need to guide enterprises to step up the research on the important platform for the interaction between the future virtual world and the real society, and timely layout and cut in. In terms of industry, giants at home and abroad focus on the multi-dimensional ecological layout of software, hardware and content, short-term or partial theme investment, and catalyze the valuation repair of the media industry. In the long run, there are a lot of investment opportunities in VraR, blockchain, virtual reality content production and other links.
appendix: Trading sentiment and market resumption
(I) trading sentiment: the medical media has cooled significantly
For details, please refer to our weekly market sentiment series released every Wednesday.
(II) review of the market during the Spring Festival holiday: the global liquidity tightening accelerated, and the equity market generally closed up
1 overview of overseas holidays
(1) the global epidemic continues to spread, but the severe mortality rate has decreased significantly, and the epidemic constraints have gradually weakened.
(2) US employment was repaired more than expected, but the extremely cold weather added disturbance.
(3) inflation in the euro area hit another record high, and energy prices became the main driving factor.
(4) the European currency signal changed from dove to Eagle, and the expectation of global liquidity tightening strengthened.
(5) OPEC + will maintain the established production increase, and the tight energy balance will continue.
(6) meta's earnings fell short of expectations, which plunged the NASDAQ.
2 overview of China's holiday highlights
(1) PMI fell month on month in January, with high pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises.
(2) the enthusiasm of Spring Festival transportation has obviously warmed up, but there is still more room for repair than before the epidemic.
(3) cultural and tourism consumption has recovered, but the epidemic constraints remain.
(4) the Winter Olympics boosted ice and snow sports, and the digital RMB pilot appeared.
For a quick review of the highlights at home and abroad during the Spring Festival holiday, see the report "all the highlights of the Spring Festival holiday in the year of the tiger" released on February 5.
Performance overview of 3 holiday assets
risk tips
1. The epidemic situation is out of control; 2. A sharp recession; 3. The policy has changed more than expected.
