The A-share market had a poor performance at the beginning of 2022 and continued to fluctuate and fall, while some funds were looking for the layout direction. As a capital wind vane, the stock exchange open-end Index Fund (ETF) showed a net share growth as a whole. Based on the average transaction price of the range, more than 56 billion yuan net flowed into the stock ETF within one month.
From the perspective of capital flow, small and medium-sized ETFs such as CSI 500 and "mass entrepreneurship and Innovation Board" ETF funds tracking relevant indexes of science and innovation board and gem obviously preferred to obtain funds at the beginning of the year. In terms of industry themed ETF, the share of ETF in brokerage, wine, new energy, medical and other industries increased significantly, while ETF in military industry, animation games, rare earth and other industries with large recent decline also experienced capital inflow.
56.2 billion funds poured into A-share ETFs against the trend
small and medium-sized style ETF is popular
In the first month of 2022, the volatility of A-share market dropped, and the volume can shrink significantly. As of the closing on January 28, the gem index fell 12.45% in January, the Shanghai index fell 7.65% and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 10.29% in January. Dragged down by this, the performance of equity ETFs is naturally not satisfactory. According to the data, in the first month of 2022, only 32 of the 548 A-share ETFs (excluding the funds established in January) in the whole market achieved positive returns, and the defense ETF with the largest decline recorded a cumulative decline of 20.4%.
At the same time, ETF shares increased against the trend, showing a trend of falling and buying. As of January 28, the overall share of A-share ETFs in the whole market has increased by 44.161 billion this year. Among the 548 funds, up to 307 products achieved net share growth and net capital inflow in January this year, accounting for 56.02%.
There are not a few ETFs with contrarian capital layout. Specifically, 89 ETFs received a net inflow of more than 100 million yuan, of which 16 equity ETFs had a net inflow of more than 1 billion yuan, of which 8 were broad-based ETFs.
Among broad-based ETFs, the scale of blue chip ETFs and small and medium-sized ETFs has expanded, among which small and medium-sized ETFs are more favored. Huatai Bairui CSI 300etf share increased by 1.26 billion in the first month of this year, and obtained more than 6 billion yuan of funds. In the same period, CSSC 500etf received a net capital inflow of 4.406 billion, second only to Huatai Bairui Hushen 300etf.
In January this year, ETF funds in the "mass entrepreneurship and Innovation Board" category, which track the science and innovation 50 index, the gem index and the mass entrepreneurship and innovation index, also became the target of fund-raising. Funds such as e-fund growth enterprise market ETF, Hua'an growth enterprise market 50ETF, Huaxia Shanghai Securities science and Innovation Board 50ETF, e-fund Shanghai Securities science and Innovation Board 50ETF and e-fund China Securities science and innovation entrepreneurship 50ETF all received net subscription of more than 1 billion yuan.
While small and medium-sized ETFs and technology growth style ETFs have encountered a large number of net subscriptions as a whole, some large blue chip style wide-based ETF products have encountered a large number of net sales.
As of January 28, among the top 10 stock ETFs with the largest capital outflow in the first month of this year, 6 were wide-based ETFs and 4 were large market blue chip style wide-based ETFs.
Specifically, as of January 28, since January, the share of Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF has declined by 1.28 billion, shrinking by 16.52%, and the net capital outflow is about 4.059 billion yuan; Huaxia CSI 300etf followed, with a net redemption of 255 million shares and a net outflow of 1.326 billion yuan. These two funds alone have a total net outflow of about 5.4 billion yuan. In addition, Huaan Hushen 300etf and Ping An Hushen 300etf funds had net outflows of 704 million yuan and 244 million yuan respectively.
In view of the recent application and redemption dynamics of the broad-based Index ETF, a person from the investment department of a public offering index in Shenzhen said that the application and redemption of the ETF is usually regarded as an investment weathervane, and the overall flow of funds into the stock ETF represents that the funds are optimistic about the future market, or judge that there will be an upward trend after the release of market risks. The broad-based ETF is mainly held by institutional investors, and its application and redemption trend can better reflect the attitude of institutions.
Behind the preference of funds for small and medium-sized ETFs, the industry is expected to grow and dominate the small market in 2022. Under the guidance of gem, science and innovation board and Beijing stock exchange, the theme of innovation and creation may continue to maintain relative popularity, and the overall style of equity is expected to continue to favor growth.
the more the industry theme ETF falls, the more it buys
securities companies, new energy, medical treatment and other strong gold absorption
In terms of industry themed ETFs, the overall trend of falling and buying in the first month of this year. Among the 16 equity ETFs with a net inflow of more than 1 billion yuan, half are broad-based ETFs. Many industry sectors fell deeply, but the net inflow of funds ranked first, including ETFs in securities companies, wine, new energy, medical and other industries.
Statistics show that Cathay Pacific China Securities all refers to securities company ETF and Huabao China Securities all refers to securities ETF increased by 3.622 billion and 2.895 billion respectively in the first month of this year, with net inflows of 4.082 billion yuan and 3.129 billion yuan respectively, becoming the two industry theme ETFs with the most "gold absorption" in January.
In addition, huitianfu MSCI China A50 interconnection ETF, Cathay Pacific CSI new energy vehicle ETF, Huabao CSI medical ETF, Huatai Bairui CSI photovoltaic industry ETF, GF CSI infrastructure project ETF, Penghua CSI liquor ETF and other industries have won more capital favor.
It is worth mentioning that the stock ETFs with large decline since 2022 are concentrated in military industry, animation and game, medical treatment, rare earth and other industries, but all of these ETFs have received funds to copy the bottom. Statistics show that since 2022, the share of all stock ETFs with the top 20 declines has increased, including Penghua Zhongzheng national defense ETF, Ping An Zhongzheng medicine and medical device innovation ETF, Cathay Zhongzheng animation game ETF, e fund Zhongzheng military ETF, Huabao Zhongzheng military ETF, Cathay Zhongzheng film and television theme ETF, Huatai birui Zhongzheng rare earth industry ETF and other funds.
At the same time, ETFs in some industries were sold off. Specifically, Tianhong China Securities bank ETF1 increased by 3% in January, but encountered a net redemption of 1.322 billion yuan, becoming the industry ETF with the largest net outflow of funds in the first month of this year. Another bank ETF, huitianfu China Securities bank ETF, also rose and sold more and more, encountering net redemption.
In the same period, Cathay Pacific CSI coal ETF, huitianfu CSI main consumption ETF and Huaxia CSI Hong Kong stock connect 50ETF also suffered more net sales.
The head of a large public offering market department in Beijing said that with the acceleration of sector rotation, the characteristics of "high selling and low absorption" of industry themed ETF market funds are becoming more and more obvious. In areas where the industry index is undervalued, investors will generally buy more and more by buying or fixed investment to accumulate chips; With the rebound and rise of the index, it will gradually cash in the income in the process of rise, and it is safe to fall into the bag.
He said that due to the catalytic effect of the annual report performance, the banking sector as a whole walked out of the independent market, had a strong mentality of profit taking, and investors withdrew while fighting, so they encountered a net outflow of funds.
"Superimposed on the macro policy level, wide liquidity and good credit, the securities sector ushered in the double boom of policy and industry.
Under the background of continuous good performance, it coincides with the current market is in the stage of style switching, and the sale of Xinji is cold in the short term. As a sector with relatively high performance and undervalued value in non bank, securities companies are suitable to start layout. The long-term investment logic of new energy has not changed, so after the share price falls, it may usher in the opportunity of layout. Medicine belongs to the long bull track. Many people in the industry suggest that investors focus on configuration, especially when there is low price and low absorption. " The above person in charge further introduced.
well known brokerage strategy team:
four conditions for A-Shares to make a good start have been met
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) strategy Zhang Qiyao's team released the latest view today that the four conditions for A-Shares to "make a good start" have been met
The team believes that the steady growth direction represented by state-owned enterprise real estate will be the first promotion from November 2021. It is judged in the top ten forecasts of 2022 that "there is expected to be a wave of index market similar to 'mini version 2014' in 2022". After the adjustment at the beginning of the year, we judged that the market adjustment was coming to an end according to the four indicators.
Since the beginning of the year, the market has continued to decline, and the growth track of high prosperity and hard technology has been greatly adjusted. on the one hand, the Fed's concern about raising interest rates or even shrinking the table has heated up, US bond interest rates have risen sharply, and US stocks, especially technology stocks, have fallen sharply, which has continued to drag down China's risk appetite. On the other hand, the slowdown in the inflow of incremental funds in the venue at the beginning of the year and the high congestion of public offering also led to the boom growth of heavy positions of institutions, especially the adjustment of the track.
but at present, the four conditions for a good start have been met:
condition 1: the release of overseas risks is coming to an end, and the global resonance of the holiday is upward. the market of A-Shares before the festival has been significantly corrected, the trading volume has shrunk significantly, the risk aversion has been fully released, and the strong performance of peripheral markets is expected to boost the risk appetite of Chinese investors after the festival.
2. China's policies remain relaxed. recently, the national development and Reform Commission said that it "firmly implements the strategy of expanding domestic demand" and requires "focusing on releasing consumer demand" and "promoting rational growth of investment". Under the downward pressure of the economy, since the beginning of the year, measures to stabilize growth, including RRR reduction and policy interest rate reduction, have been accelerated, and subsequent policy easing is expected to continue to increase.
condition 3: fund issuance has warmed up, institutions have fully started self purchase, and the pattern of stock game has improved. although historically, the large-scale self purchase of public funds is not equal to the bottom reading model, the large-scale self purchase of funds is often one of the important bottom signals after the sharp decline of the market.
condition 4. The congestion of popular tracks has dropped to a low level.
therefore, we judge that after the festival, with the gradual mitigation of risks at home and abroad, the continuous implementation of loose policies, the gradual improvement of the stock game pattern, and the congestion of popular tracks falling below the low level, the market will usher in a "good start".
structurally, focus on the "small high-tech" with deep adjustment, sufficient pressure release of congestion and still good prosperity. At the same time, the direction of China's policy relaxation is determined, and the "mini version 2014" is on the way. The layout on the left benefits from the "big finance" of "stable growth" and "wide credit" at the margin.
investment strategy: on the one hand, grasp the undervalued repair market of financial real estate, on the other hand, lay out "small high-tech" with long-term fighting short and bargain hunting. For a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedical drugs (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
risk tip: focus on the return of global capital to the United States, and the game between China and the United States.
Gao Shanwen issued a document today
A shares are in a reasonable or even low position
After the A, the market opened soon. In February 6th, Gao Shanwen released the official account of "Gao Shanwen economic observation", entitled "several views on the current economic and market situation", and made the latest judgement on the current economy and A share market.
US inflation rose higher than expected, the Fed accelerated its exit from monetary easing, the significant adjustment of the US stock market and the strengthening of the US dollar are generally considered to be the external reasons for the adjustment of the Chinese market. However, according to Gao Shanwen, the change of the Fed's monetary policy position may not be the main reason for the adjustment of China's stock market so far, judging from the strong RMB exchange rate, the downward interest rate of China's bond market, the capital flow of Shanghai Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect and the previously accumulated dollar debt.
Gao Shanwen believes that the stabilization and rebound of the US S & P index in the past two weeks shows that the drag of external factors, even if it did have an impact, has been eliminated at least temporarily.
Gao Shanwen believes that taking the historical level as a reference and combined with the gradual development of the steady growth policy, even considering the risk of profit downward revision, it can still be considered that the market is currently in a reasonable range, perhaps even in a reasonably low position.
How to view the future policy system? Gao Shanwen expressed optimism. "In the specific policy practice, from deleveraging to dual control of energy consumption, from breaking the exchange rate to controlling the invisible debt of local governments, the government can adjust and correct errors pragmatically and flexibly on the whole, and can have a more optimistic expectation for the formation process of the future policy system."
From the perspective of the market valuation level, the benchmark CSI 300 index is currently at a slightly higher level than the median in the past decade, and the dynamic P / E ratio is at a lower level of 20% after considering the market's consistent expectation of profit in 2022.
Since 2016, while the economic trend continues to slow down, the roe of CSI 300 has fluctuated and increased on the whole. At present, the market expects that its level in 2022 will exceed that in 2019 before the epidemic, which is due to the improvement of market competition pattern brought by continuous structural adjustment and provides key support for the steady rise of market trend in the past few years.
In the face of short-term economic downward pressure, the market's profit expectation may be revised downward. However, based on these discussions, taking the historical level as the reference and combined with the gradual development of the steady growth policy, Gao Shanwen believes that even considering the risk of profit downward revision, the market can still be considered to be in a reasonable range, perhaps even in a reasonably low position.
If we take into account the current interest rate level, policy orientation and economic prospects, the exaggerated concerns of the market about credit expansion and the uncertainty of the policy environment, and the fact that these uncertainties can be gradually eliminated or reduced in the long term, it seems that we can further confirm that the current market is in a low position. "At present, how to balance risks and benefits undoubtedly requires more in-depth and calm thinking." Gao Shanwen suggested.
The following is the full text of Gao Shanwen's views on the current economic and market situation:
some views on the current economic and market situation
Gao Shanwen
February 6, 2022
Since the middle of December 2021, under the background of obvious relaxation of monetary conditions and gradual force of steady growth policy, China's stock market has continued to decline by a large margin, which has stunned many market participants.
US inflation rose higher than expected, the Fed accelerated its exit from monetary easing, the significant adjustment of the US stock market and the strengthening of the US dollar are generally considered to be the external reasons for the adjustment of the Chinese market. However, it can be inferred from the data such as the strong RMB exchange rate, the downward interest rate of the Chinese bond market, the capital flow of the Shanghai Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect and the accumulated US dollar debt, So far, the change of the Fed's monetary policy position may not be the main reason for the adjustment of China's stock market.
In any case, in the past two weeks, the S & P index has stabilized and rebounded, indicating that the drag of external factors, even if it did have an impact, has been eliminated at least temporarily.
Since the second half of 2021, due to the in-depth promotion of the deleveraging policy, the internal vulnerability of many real estate business models has been exposed, and there has been a certain range of liquidity pressure in the industry.
Although the pressure of the real estate market seems to have formed an obvious negative, since mid December, while the market has fallen significantly, the real estate sector has risen slightly, and the adjustment of the banking sector is also very slight, which undoubtedly implies that although the internal differentiation of the real estate industry is obvious, the stock market is not too worried about the risks in this field on the whole. In fact, the pressure of the real estate market is mainly concentrated in the shadow banking system such as overseas Chinese dollar bonds, trust and financial management.
Undoubtedly, we need to wait for the further disclosure of progress data to assess the impact of steady growth policies and identify the short-term direction of the economy. However, many important structural changes taking place in China's economic operation and policy-making, as well as their impact on the long-term growth prospects of enterprises, may be worth more systematic observation and thinking.
Since the global financial crisis, the government has almost always relied on infrastructure and real estate policies to stabilize economic growth. At present, this policy is undoubtedly the end of a powerful crossbow: on the one hand, these policies have caused high macro leverage, accumulated debt risk and high house prices in some cities, on the other hand, they have also brought excessive overdraft of infrastructure and real estate demand, As a result, it is difficult for infrastructure to find a sufficient number of projects that meet the income requirements, and the demand for real estate is also weak. As the government puts controlling macro levers and preventing and resolving risks in an increasingly prominent position, the room for maneuver of traditional demand stimulating policies is becoming increasingly narrow.
It is worth noting that for a long time before the financial crisis, the important basis of China's credit expansion was the investment of foreign exchange; After that, real estate and infrastructure have formed the main carrier of credit expansion in the past decade, supporting the expansion of the balance sheet of banks (and their shadow system). As the expansion of infrastructure and real estate comes to an end, how to effectively support monetary expansion and credit delivery undoubtedly requires new tools or channels, as well as time to gradually explore and try and error.
In 2021, China's per capita income in US dollars has been very close to the threshold of high-income countries defined by the World Bank (in fact, the result calculated at the year-end exchange rate may exceed the standard set by the world bank in 2021, although the general practice is to use the average annual exchange rate). With the substantial improvement of living standards, while continuing to pursue the goal of economic growth, the government began to list common prosperity, preventing the disorderly expansion of capital and reaching the peak of carbon as important policy objectives. These changes will undoubtedly have a far-reaching impact on the operating environment of enterprises, and the capital market needs to carefully observe and evaluate the changes in the long-term growth prospects of enterprises.
In the process of anti-monopoly in industries such as education double reduction and Internet in 2021, the capital market experienced the great impact of changes in the policy environment, and began to focus on more industries to rethink the robustness, sustainability and long-term growth potential of many business models.
In the second half of 2021, in order to achieve the goal of dual control of energy consumption, some places actively promoted sports carbon reduction, which caused a lot of disturbance and noise in economic activities, and made many investors compete to buy the targets related to carbon removal, which greatly promoted the valuation of relevant stocks. Due to the economic impact of sports carbon reduction, it is reasonable to adjust the carbon removal policy at the end of 2021, and the prices of these underlying stocks immediately callback.
From these cases, the setting of new policy objectives undoubtedly requires new sophisticated and detailed policy tools and policy implementation to better deal with the relationship between the government and the market, achieve objectives more accurately and reduce its economic cost. This policy system may still be in the early stage of design, exploration and running in. Therefore, it is inevitable that there will continue to be some policy uncertainties in the future.
However, when we focus on the longer history and future, many uncertainties seem to disappear:
Although there may be obstruction in credit expansion in the short term, it is undoubtedly certain that the central bank can find a way to expand credit in the medium and long term; The central bank's focus on expanding credit and reducing interest rates is now certain. With the curtain call of infrastructure and real estate expansion, China's interest rate center will decline significantly, which is also relatively certain in my opinion.
With the continuous progress of technology and the continuous improvement of income level, China will continue to upgrade and transform to the field of high-end manufacturing and new services, especially in the field of major technological and business model changes, as well as in the key areas that need to achieve technological autonomy, China will be able to maintain rapid growth, which is undoubtedly more certain. For example, in electric vehicles, renewable energy, electronic manufacturing, medical and elderly care services and other fields.
From the past experience, in the specific policy practice, from deleveraging to dual control of energy consumption, from breaking the new exchange to controlling the invisible debt of local governments, the government can adjust and correct errors pragmatically and flexibly, which makes us have more optimistic expectations for the formation process of the future policy system.
Finally, from the perspective of the market valuation level, the benchmark CSI 300 index is currently at a slightly higher level than the median in the past decade, and the dynamic P / E ratio is at a lower level of 20% after considering the market's consistent expectation of profit in 2022.
Since 2016, while the economic trend continues to slow down, the roe of CSI 300 has fluctuated and increased on the whole. At present, the market expects that its level in 2022 will exceed that in 2019 before the epidemic, which is due to the improvement of market competition pattern brought by continuous structural adjustment and provides key support for the steady rise of market trend in the past few years.
In the face of short-term economic downward pressure, the market's profit expectation may be revised downward. However, based on these discussions, taking the historical level as the reference and combined with the gradual development of the steady growth policy, even considering the risk of profit downward revision, it can still be considered that the market is currently in a reasonable range, perhaps even in a reasonably low position.
If we take into account the current interest rate level, policy orientation and economic prospects, the exaggerated concerns of the market about credit expansion and the uncertainty of the policy environment, and the fact that these uncertainties can be gradually eliminated or reduced in the long term, it seems that we can further confirm that the current market is in a low position. How we should balance risks and benefits now undoubtedly requires more in-depth and calm thinking.
