The week-long Spring Festival holiday is coming to an end, and February 7 will usher in the first trading day after the Spring Festival.
Before the festival, affected by multiple adverse factors, the A-share market continued to adjust, the transaction volume gradually shrunk, and the overall sentiment of the market was weak. What kind of market will it be after the beginning of the year? The opening of the market is imminent, and more and more mainstream institutions speak for A-Shares after the festival.
The mainstream view is that although there is still uncertainty about the global epidemic, China’s policy attitude is clear and stable. Under the tone of stability, the central bank may further open the monetary policy toolbox and a relatively loose monetary policy environment is conducive to the rise of the price of risky assets.
Wang Hongyuan, honorary chairman of Qianhai open source fund, said at the outset that it is inevitable that the global stock market will enter a risk release period in 2022 under the background of unsustainable water release, rising inflation and the Federal Reserve’s tightening monetary policy. In this context, China, which has adhered to a prudent fiscal and monetary policy in previous years and has a large reserve of policy tools, is the only country in the world that has the ability, willingness, tools and execution to support the economy. In the year of the tiger, China’s stock market will become one of the most beautiful markets in the global stock market. The long-term strategic inflection point of global capital actively chasing China’s high-quality stocks and high-quality bonds has emerged. Excellent local institutional investors should take action, seize rare strategic opportunities and meet a better tomorrow of China’s capital market with global investors.
This is also the strategic inflection point of Wang Hongyuan’s judgment on China’s stock market after the strategic bullish in 2018.
Qianhai Kaiyuan Wang Hongyuan: China’s stock market is optimistic in the year of the tiger
Recently, Wang Hongyuan, CO chairman of Qianhai open source fund company, analyzed the stock market situation outside China in the special column of “New Year’s dedication to the fund industry” launched by the financial Associated Press, and made the latest research judgment that “the Chinese stock market in the year of the tiger will become one of the most beautiful markets in the global stock market”.
At the same time, Wang Hongyuan proposed that at this stage, the long-term strategic inflection point of global capital actively chasing China’s high-quality stocks and high-quality bonds has emerged. Excellent local institutional investors should take action and seize rare strategic opportunities.
As a benchmark figure in China’s capital market, Wang Hongyuan’s judgment on the macro market is relatively accurate, and his repeated calls in the open market have finally been fulfilled.
In 2018, affected by the Sino US trade friction, China’s stock market experienced a difficult time. At that time, Wang Hongyuan issued several public documents, “the strategic opportunity of China’s stock market has emerged, and investors need to increase their positions, increase their positions and then increase their positions in China’s stock assets!” In hindsight, since the National Day in 2018, the CSI 300 index has increased by more than 50% and the “double base” of public funds has exceeded 1200. China’s economy has also withstood the dual impact of Sino US trade friction and covid-19 epidemic.
Wang Hongyuan believes that since 2021, China has made use of the rare strong rebound period of the global economy after the epidemic to decisively solve some structural problems that have been shelved since the global covid-19 epidemic, which are not conducive to the long-term and healthy development of China’s economy, give full play to China’s institutional advantages, and fully protect the entrepreneurial spirit and legitimate rights and interests of private entrepreneurs, It has launched a series of lines and policies on common prosperity, which has laid a solid institutional foundation for China to finally cross the middle-income trap and become a moderately developed country.
“In this process, there are short-term shocks and pains in the stock market, and a few investors also have some negative emotions. However, at the time of market sensitivity and turning point, rational institutional investors should look at the quantity and essence through the phenomenon.” Wang Hongyuan said that at present, it is another historic strategic buying opportunity to share China’s growth.
On the last trading day of the year of the ox, Qianhai open source fund made a decision to purchase its partial equity funds with its own funds of no less than 50 million yuan, promised to hold them for no less than three years, and practiced the concept of long-term optimism about China’s stock market with practical actions.
Looking forward to 2022, Wang Hongyuan also believes that it is inevitable for the global stock market to enter the risk release period under the background of unsustainable water release, rising inflation and the Federal Reserve’s tightening monetary policy. In this context, China, which has always adhered to a prudent monetary policy and has a large reserve of policy tools, is a country with the ability, willingness, tools and executive power to support the economy among the world’s major powers.
mainstream institutions are optimistic about the performance of A-Shares after the festival
Coincidentally, Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin securities, also pointed out today that in the face of the downward pressure of the short-term economy, there is a possibility of downward revision of the market’s profit expectation. However, based on these discussions, taking the historical level as the reference and combined with the gradual development of the steady growth policy, even considering the risk of downward revision of profits, It can still be considered that the market is currently in a reasonable range, perhaps even in a reasonably low position. If we take into account the current interest rate level, policy orientation and economic prospects, the exaggerated concerns of the market about credit expansion and the uncertainty of the policy environment, and the fact that these uncertainties can be gradually eliminated or reduced in the long term, it seems that we can further confirm that the current market is in a low position.
In fact, after the early market adjustment, the attraction of high-quality A-share assets has increased, and many institutions have also aimed at a new round of investment opportunities.
Zhang Hui, general manager of huitianfu fund, said that looking back on 2021, the turbulence of the world economic and trade pattern intensified and the great changes in the past century accelerated the evolution. It is encouraging that the huge industrial opportunity period superimposes the innovation cycle of Chinese enterprises, and the global competitiveness of a number of excellent enterprises begins to emerge. At the same time, in the context of the explosion of demand for wealth management, public funds actively tap enterprise value and help enterprises grow. They are more responsible for helping investors grasp investment opportunities and share the achievements of enterprise development. We are at an exciting historical moment. Huitianfu will continue to adhere to the customer first, everything from a long-term perspective, adhere to our investment philosophy and principles, and continuously and stably create value for investors.
It is generally believed in the industry that although there is still uncertainty about the global epidemic, China’s policy underpinning attitude is clear. Under the tone of stability, the central bank may further open the monetary policy toolbox. The relatively loose monetary policy environment is conducive to the rise of the price of risky assets.
Previously, Xingshi investment also pointed out that since 2010, there has been a phenomenon of “spring agitation” in the stock market. Among them, the average annual performance of 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016 is “decline first and then agitation”. The adjustment of the stock market at the beginning of the year does not mean that there will be no “spring agitation” in that year. From the data, most spring agitation covers February, and the probability of rising in February since 2010 is 67%. Therefore, despite the poor performance of the stock market at the beginning of this year, there are no major negative factors in the macro fundamentals, and the market is beginning to stabilize. The agitation in spring may be late but will not be absent.
For the future, from the perspective of allocation, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said in its research report that the year of the tiger of A-Shares is about to start, and the negative factors before the festival have been gradually weakened. The market will gradually recover with the upward repair of positive factors and actively increase positions in the beginning of the year.
In terms of industry allocation, according to the order of steady growth and the marginal improvement degree of profitability, it is recommended that:
1) consumption: accelerate the expected bottom, recommend the direction of pig, household appliances, furniture, social service / tourism, Baijiu and so on with supporting and negative expectations.
2) infrastructure: improve infrastructure investment, help “revitalize infrastructure” exceed expectations in the future, and recommend building materials, construction, power operation and other directions;
3) Finance: securities companies and banks;
4) consumer electronics.
