As of 12:00 p.m. on January 29, more than 2600 A-share listed companies disclosed the performance forecast of 2021 annual report, with a disclosure rate of 56.57%. At present, the growth rate of all a forecast performance in 2021 has reached 61.93%, and the compound annualized growth rate in 2019 has reached 21.21% year-on-year; The total a (non-financial) is 76.51% and 25.50% respectively, and the absolute level is not low. (it should be reminded that the data may be adjusted with subsequent disclosure.) However, when we take 1193 listed companies with wind’s consensus expectation as a sample, only 39% of the predicted performance of 2021 (the average value of the upper and lower limits) exceeded wind’s consensus expectation. We expect that the annual growth rate of A-share earnings in 2021 will be about 23%, and Q4 will fall further month on month compared with Q3, which is in the downward cycle of earnings. The fundamentals of A-share will face considerable downward pressure in 2022.
The previous special report “downward A-share Fundamentals: how to solve problems under cost impact?” From the second half of 2021, we put forward that the fundamentals of A-Shares are facing obvious downward pressure. From Q4 in 2021 to the first half of 2022, the fundamental concerns of A-Shares come from three aspects: 1. PPI may decline significantly; 2. The overall economic growth slowed down; 3. The asset impairment loss increases, and the asset impairment loss around the real estate chain is particularly noteworthy. The negative impact of PPI on the fundamentals of A-Shares should be most obvious in the second half of 2022; The overall economic growth slowed down and converged under the hedge of steady growth policy; However, in the performance forecast of the annual report, the asset impairment loss of the real estate industry has been exposed in Q4. According to the statistical observation in recent years, the total profits of the upstream and downstream chains of real estate account for more than 20% of the total A-share non-financial profits. We should be vigilant against the negative impact on the fundamentals of a shares. At present, the impairment loss of upstream and downstream assets of Q4 real estate chain is not obvious, but it needs to be further confirmed in the formal annual report. If the real estate (chain) does not form a negative drag in the follow-up, we expect the A-share profit to bottom out as soon as 2022q3.
From the performance forecast of the annual report to observe the internal differentiation of the high boom track, it has begun to appear. Here, we emphasize once again that we are optimistic about the medium-term industrial trend of the high boom and high valuation track in 2021, but the fundamental differentiation of the high boom track in 2021 in 2022 is a high probability event, and the investment opportunities will shift from most companies in most links of the industrial chain in 2021 to a few companies in a few links.
Further, from the perspective of performance exceeding expectations, based on the difference between the actually published median value of performance forecast minus the average value of wind’s consistent net profit as of December 31, 2021, we find that: first, the profit exceeding expectations is mainly distributed in the fields of banks and securities dealers. Second, in terms of secondary industry segments, the industries with better performance than expected are mainly concentrated in banking, biological products, securities, infrastructure, rare metals and other directions; Real estate, petrochemical industry, livestock and poultry breeding, electric power, shipping and other sub industries are lower than expected on average.
After attribution analysis, it was found that the main reason for the benefit was the continuous recovery of the boom after the epidemic and the weakening of the price rise factor; The damage is mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials, and the epidemic factors are weaker than before, indicating that if the follow-up of the epidemic can continue to improve, it will form a good support for the fundamentals of a shares. At the same time, the negative impact of the rise in the price of upstream raw materials is expected to be alleviated in the first half of this year. Specifically: 1. Relevant sub industries with both volume and price rise include: power battery related chemicals (electrolyte, lithium salt, phosphorus chemical industry, diaphragm, ternary precursor, negative electrode material, etc.), lithium battery equipment, photovoltaic wind power equipment ( Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery, wind power bearing, silicon wafer silicon material, etc.), chemicals (potassium fertilizer, lithium salt, polyurethane, fluorine chemical industry, etc.). 2. The industries with increased downstream demand driving the increase of sales volume include: panel (flexible screen, display device, etc.), semiconductor industry chain (semiconductor materials, equipment, design, sealing and testing, etc.), auto parts (intelligent automotive electronics, etc.), military industry chain (special steel, aerospace equipment, etc.), it services, software development, medical devices, medical services (CXO, etc.). 3. The industries whose performance growth is mainly driven by the increase of product prices include coal, petrochemical industry, aluminum, copper, zinc, steel, soda ash, chemical fertilizer and other links dominated by bulk commodities.
From the annual report performance forecast that has been disclosed, on the whole, the cycle performance growth > high-end manufacturing > medicine and securities companies > consumption, banking, technology > Insurance > real estate. Based on the annual performance forecast and combined with the meso data of the industry, we believe that the high boom segments that still deserve attention in the future are mainly concentrated in the following directions: the first echelon: high boom main track, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, semiconductor equipment and semiconductor materials; Intelligent related industrial chains: intelligent IT services, consumer electronics (VR / AR), software development, intelligent vehicles (auto parts), industrial Internet, etc. The second tier: Bank, securities, Baijiu, urea, aluminum, petrochemical, panel, military industry chain (special steel, aerospace / aviation equipment). The third echelon: some upstream cyclical products (coal, lithium, cobalt, rare earth permanent magnet, special steel, pesticide and chemical fertilizer), beer, medical services, medical devices, optional consumption for epidemic repair expected to reverse the dilemma, such as express, hotels, artificial scenic spots, logistics, etc.
Risk tip: economic growth is lower than expected, and the global epidemic is higher than expected
