Who is consuming new energy vehicles at present? Increased family purchases of people born from 1985 to 1995.
Before 2020, consumption was mainly driven by the factors of b-end operation and limited city license. In 2020, Tesla Model3 / Hongguang Mini / Euler black cat / ideal one and 2021 modely / Byd Company Limited(002594) DM-I and other star models appeared successively, focusing on different market segments and increasing family purchase and partial replacement consumption of people born from 1985 to 1995, By distinguishing the needs of different gender / age and use scenarios based on product space + appearance + endurance and other concerns, the consumption of new energy vehicles has changed from policy driven to market driven, and the penetration rate has soared to about 15% by 2021.
Rhythm: will the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continue to increase from 2022 to 2025? The probability will replicate the high growth path of SUV.
1) demand side: population size + 25-30-year-old family and business + 6-8-year car change cycle. The core determines that 2022-2025 will be the concentration period of new energy vehicle consumption. History of repeat Car + SUV: the first purchase of cars is mainly after 60 / 70, and the first purchase of SUV is after 80. The 400 million people born in 1980-2000 + the first purchase of the post-90s + the demand for increased replacement of car buyers in 2012-2017 will drive the penetration rate of this round of new energy vehicles to increase [the first purchase of the post-85s and the first purchase of the post-90s will take over].
2) supply side: for the same car / SUV, leading brands launch iconic products of various price bands in each round, and following the brand will promote the enrichment of supply. With Tesla as the leading brand of new energy vehicles, new forces, traditional car companies, mobile phones and other tripartite car manufacturers have entered the market one after another. 2022-2025 will usher in the most concentrated period of new product listing.
Peak: will the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceed 50% in 2025? Probably! The development process of smart phones has greater reference significance.
1) the change of product experience quality is the core reason. Compared with fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles have undergone essential changes in technology (independent operating system + third-party software access + independent development) and product experience (smooth software and hardware + multimedia entertainment function + accelerated driving control).
2) the energy strategy forced fuel vehicles to withdraw from the historical stage. The tightening of double credit policy + carbon neutralization target measures continue to fall to the ground. It is a general trend for new energy vehicles to completely replace fuel vehicles to achieve the national energy strategic goal. We believe that the peak penetration rate of new energy vehicles will probably exceed 50% of SUV, and it may be achieved in 2025 (the core depends on the rhythm of technological progress).
Total: will China’s passenger car sales exceed the historical peak in 2025? Probably! The pent up demand for cars is expected to be released centrally.
1) relationship between GDP and peak value. Based on the history of passenger cars in Japan and the United States, the birth rate + consumer concept is the bottom driving force of automobile consumption. The peak of automobile consumption in a country is often accompanied by the zero growth stage of GDP, and China’s economic growth toughness still exists.
2) each round of peak value is the concentrated release of phased depressed demand. China’s passenger cars have entered a downward period since 2017 and bottomed out in 2020q3. However, due to the economic slowdown caused by the outbreak of the global epidemic and the supply side (especially the shortage of chips), the recovery rhythm of passenger car demand in this round has been delayed and the demand has been suppressed. We expect that 2023-2025 may usher in a concentrated release of demand.
Investment suggestion: 2022 is a critical moment connecting the preceding and the following. The impact of price increase on demand can not be ignored in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to the explosive power of the opening of the positive cycle of supply and demand. Vehicle and supply chain sectors have more opportunities to blossom, and there will be good buying points. In 2022, 8 major gold stocks: complete vehicle [Great Wall – Byd Company Limited(002594) – ideal – Xiaopeng], supply chain [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) – Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) – Foryou Corporation(002906) – Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ].
Risk warning: the global epidemic control is lower than expected, and the progress of electric / intelligent technology is lower than expected.
