First, the downward pressure on China’s economy remains, and the steady growth policy is on the way
1. In January, the manufacturing PMI fell year-on-year, and the pace of expansion slowed down
On January 30, the National Bureau of statistics released China’s PMI data for January. Data show that China’s official manufacturing PMI in January was 50.1, down 0.2 percentage points month on month, higher than the critical point, and the pace of manufacturing expansion slowed down. The official non manufacturing PMI in January was 51.1, compared with the previous value of 52.7.1. The comprehensive PMI output index in January was 51, down 1.2 percentage points month on month. The National Bureau of Statistics said that in January, some manufacturing industries entered the traditional off-season of production, and the recent slowdown in market demand weakened the expansion of manufacturing industry. The non manufacturing sector as a whole continued to expand, but the pace slowed down. In addition, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI in January was 49.1, 1.8 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, the lowest since March 2020.
2. Real estate financing has gradually returned to normal, and the financing environment has improved
According to China Securities News, recently, real estate financing has gradually returned to normal, and banks have also made frequent actions in supporting real estate financing mergers and acquisitions and risk resolution. Not only is the smooth landing of debt financing instruments for M & A of real estate companies, some banks are also issuing M & a theme bonds for real estate projects, or issuing M & A loans to high-quality real estate enterprises. Since the issuance of the notice on doing a good job in M & a financial services for key real estate enterprise risk disposal projects, many banks such as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, China Merchants Bank and Guangdong Development Bank have stated that they will provide financing support for real estate M & A, including M & a theme bonds, M & A loans, M & a funds and asset securitization. It is expected to provide a total of more than 30 billion yuan of M & A financing support.
3. A number of government officials again proposed to stabilize growth and stressed the need to strengthen the coordination and linkage of fiscal policy and monetary policy
Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of statistics and Secretary of the Party group, wrote in seeking truth that we should actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability. In view of the downward pressure on the economy, we should take practical actions to implement the party’s line, principles and policies, implement sound and effective macro policies, carefully introduce policies with contraction effect, and keep the policy force ahead appropriately. We will strengthen the coordination and linkage between fiscal and monetary policies and organically combine cross cyclical and counter cyclical regulation. At the same time, Premier Li Keqiang said during his inspection in Gansu Province: “many market players are now in great difficulties. We should stabilize them. The state is studying policies such as increasing tax and fee reduction support, and all localities should also think more about other fee reductions”.
Further implement the work of coal supply and Reform Commission to stabilize the price of iron ore in the near future
Recently, the market price of iron ore has risen sharply, and there have been many abnormal fluctuations during the period. The analysis of relevant parties believes that there is speculation. At the same time, the spot and futures prices of coal have risen too fast. The national development and Reform Commission attaches great importance to the price changes of coal and iron ore, and will further strengthen market price regulation and supervision with relevant departments, severely crack down on illegal price behaviors in the spot and futures markets, and ensure that the prices of coal and iron ore operate within a reasonable range. At the same time, the national development and Reform Commission held a symposium on major coal producing provinces and key enterprises, which required to maintain the normal production and supply of coal on the premise of ensuring safety, give full play to the leading role of large enterprises, stabilize the coal price, strictly honor the performance of medium and long-term coal contracts, strengthen the scheduling of railway capacity and port operations, and effectively ensure the stability of coal production, supply and price during the Spring Festival.
quick comment: at present, the downward pressure on China’s economy still exists. The manufacturing PMI sub item in January showed that the production expansion slowed down, the demand contracted, and the employment of enterprises was still below the boom and bust line. On the one hand, the sluggish performance of economic data stems from the limited effect of monetary policy transmitted to the real economy in a short time, on the other hand, it is due to the repeated suppression of the epidemic on the demand side. Under the downward pressure of the economy, a series of steady growth policies are on the way, and the follow-up policies are expected to be further strengthened.
Second, consumer demand is gradually released, but the repeated epidemic still restricts the recovery
1. The demand for tourism during the Spring Festival holiday is gradually released, but there is still room for recovery from the same period before the epidemic
In terms of tourism travel, according to the statistics of the data center of the Ministry of culture and tourism, three days before the Spring Festival holiday, the demand for short-range travel, rural travel, ice and snow travel, urban leisure and visiting relatives and friends has been gradually released, and the passenger flow in historical and cultural blocks, tourism and leisure blocks and major urban cultural places has increased. China’s total number of tourist trips was 137 million, which was restored to 71.5% in the same period of the Spring Festival holiday in 2019 according to comparable standards; China’s tourism revenue reached 167.849 billion yuan.
2. The box office of the Spring Festival has exceeded 4.4 billion, but the number of film viewers is still significantly lower than that before the epidemic
According to the latest data of cat’s eye professional edition, as of 19:00 on February 4, the total box office of 2022 Spring Festival new films (including point screening) exceeded 4.4 billion, of which the cumulative box office of the film “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake” was about 1.9 billion yuan in four days. According to the lighthouse professional edition, on the first day of the new year, the national film box office exceeded 1.5 billion yuan, ranking second in the single day box office of Chinese film history, with a total of 535600 shows, setting a single day record in Chinese film history. Due to the repeated epidemic and the sharp rise in ticket prices, the number of film viewers fell by 27.45% year-on-year on the first day of the Spring Festival (February 1) and 42% year-on-year on the second day (February 2). Compared with the same period before the epidemic, there is still room for recovery. In addition to the reasons for the sharp rise in ticket prices, consumers’ repeated concerns about the epidemic and the restrictions on epidemic prevention policies in some areas are still important reasons restricting the recovery of viewing data.
3. The number of Spring Festival passengers increased year-on-year, but it still only recovered to about 35% before the epidemic
According to the data of the Ministry of transport, the passenger flow before the festival increased significantly compared with last year, but it is still far lower than that before the epidemic. As of January 29, 351 million passengers had been sent across the country, an increase of 47.4% over the same period in 2021, a decrease of 65.1% over the same period in 2020 and 65.8% over the same period in 2019. With 29.45 million passengers expected to be sent on January 30, 380 million passengers had been sent nationwide as of the day before New Year’s Eve.
4. Ice and snow consumption surged during the Spring Festival holiday, and the order volume increased nearly fivefold
The 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games “encounter” the Lunar New Year holiday of the tiger. Before and after the holiday, the consumption of ice and snow sports and ice and snow surged. According to the latest data of public comment, in the first ten days of January 2022, the online orders related to ice and snow sports increased by nearly five times compared with the same period last year; Since January, the search volume of “ice and snow sports online experience course” has increased by more than twice month on month. Novices in Beijing, Chengdu, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Tianjin have the highest enthusiasm for learning ice and snow sports, and the order volume ranks among the top five in China.
quick comment: affected by the repeated epidemic situation, the current epidemic prevention situation in many places in China is still severe. The stricter epidemic prevention policy has formed an obvious restriction on cultural and tourism consumption during the Spring Festival transportation.
Although the year-on-year growth rate of the number of Spring Festival passengers and tourists is high, there is still a large gap compared with the same period before the epidemic. With the normalization of the epidemic prevention and control more accurate and effective, it is expected that the subsequent cultural and tourism consumption will gradually recover, but the repeated epidemic may increase the uncertainty of recovery. It is still necessary to be vigilant about the impact of the dot like outbreak of covid-19 on the regional economy.
Third, the economic momentum of Europe and the United States is slowing down, and the overseas monetary policy is tightening
1. The United States: inflationary pressure continues to rise, but the employment data is much higher than expected, and the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates continues to increase
price index: the PCE price index of the United States increased by 5.8% year-on-year in December 2021, the largest increase since 1982, and the core PCE price index increased by 4.9% year-on-year, a new high in recent 40 years.
consumption data: while U.S. income rose 0.3% month on month in December last year, personal consumption expenditure fell 0.6% month on month. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 67.2 in January from 70.6 a month ago, the lowest since November 2011. It was not only lower than expected, but also lower than the initial value of 68.8.
employment data: US non farm employment increased by 467000 in January, much higher than the expected increase of 125000, compared with the previous increase of 190000, a new high since October last year.
government debt: the scale of U.S. federal government debt exceeded $30 trillion for the first time. This milestone highlights the fragility of the long-term economic health of the United States, which is still struggling to cope with soaring prices and the prospect of raising interest rates. The United States has invested trillions of dollars in federal spending to deal with the epidemic, which has advanced the arrival time of the $30 trillion debt threshold by several years.
economic forecast: Goldman Sachs again lowered its GDP forecast for the first quarter and the whole year of the United States, reducing its GDP forecast for the first quarter by 1.5 percentage points to 0.5%, and its GDP forecast for the whole year of 2022 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2%. Goldman Sachs expects us growth to be particularly weak in the first quarter, as fiscal drag will be accompanied by a blow from Omicron. High frequency data show that since the beginning of December, the expenditure on services sensitive to the epidemic has decreased significantly, and the overall actual service expenditure decreased by 0.6% in January.
2. Euro zone: CPI in January significantly exceeded expectations year-on-year, PMI met expectations, and the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged
economic data: PPI in the euro area increased by 2.9% month on month in December 2021, with an expected increase of 2.8% and a previous increase of 1.8%; The year-on-year growth was 26.2%, the expected growth was 26.1%, and the previous value increased by 23.7%. In January, the CPI of the euro zone increased by 0.3% month on month, and is expected to decline by 0.4%, with the previous value increasing by 0.4%; In January, the CPI of the eurozone increased by 5.1% year-on-year, expected to increase by 4.4% and the previous value increased by 5%. The final value of PMI of service industry in the eurozone in January was 51.1, and the previous value and expectation were 51.2. The final value of the euro zone’s comprehensive PMI in January was 52.3, and the previous value and expectation were 52.4.
monetary policy: the European Central Bank kept the three key interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations. The European Central Bank said it would implement an asset purchase plan at a rate of 40 billion euros a month in the second quarter. In the third quarter, the asset purchase plan will be implemented at the rate of 30 billion euros per month. From October 2022, the asset purchase plan will be implemented at the rate of 20 billion euros per month. ECB president Lagarde said there were signs that supply bottlenecks might begin to ease. The global economic recovery has contributed to an optimistic outlook. Most potential inflation indicators have risen.
3. UK: the Bank of England continues to raise interest rates, saying that China’s cost pressure may last longer
The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50%, in line with market expectations. The Bank of England said that raising interest rates is necessary because of the current tight labor market and signs that China’s cost pressure will last longer; In the short term, the UK’s annual growth rate will slow to 1% and the unemployment rate will rise to 5%. Bank of England governor Bailey said that the rise in global energy and import prices will inevitably push up inflation and put pressure on income; CPI will fall close to the target within two years and below the target within three years.
quick comment: the momentum of economic growth in Europe and the United States is slowing down, but under the condition that inflation continues to exceed expectations, the overseas monetary environment is still tightening. In Europe, although the ECB still decided to keep the intensity of monetary easing unchanged, the fine-tuning of the wording released the “Hawk” signal. In the context of sustained high inflation and the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates, the pressure for the European Central Bank to withdraw from loose monetary policy is increasing day by day, and the Bank of England has raised interest rates for the first time in 18 years. In the United States, the shortage of products and raw materials and transportation bottlenecks continue to drag down the growth of the real economy, and the inflation level continues to rise. The non-agricultural data in January exceeded expectations, which also greatly increased the probability that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 50bp in March. However, in the long run, the Fed will be in a state of “easy loosening but difficult tightening and difficult recovery”. If the subsequent economic recovery is unsustainable, it does not rule out that monetary policy will be loosened again, so it is difficult to pose a systematic risk to the US stock market and economy.
Fourth, the external market rebounded as a whole, and Hong Kong stocks made a good start in the year of the tiger
1. During the first half of the Spring Festival holiday, European and American stock markets rebounded as a whole, led by the NASDAQ index
During the Spring Festival holiday, the overall performance of European and American stock markets was good. From January 31 to February 2 (Monday to Wednesday), European and American stock markets rebounded significantly as a whole. In the United States, the NASDAQ index, the S & P 500 index and the Dow Jones industrial average rose 4.70%, 3.55% and 2.60% respectively. In Europe, France’s CAC40, Germany’s DAX and FTSE 100 index rose 2.14%, 1.92% and 1.57% respectively. On February 3 (Thursday), affected by factors such as the interest rate meeting of the European Central Bank and the lower than expected performance guidance of meta (formerly Facebook) in the United States, the global stock market corrected, and the NASDAQ index plunged – 3.74%, the largest decline since September 2020. But on the whole, the European and American markets generally warmed up this week.
2. Hong Kong stocks made a good start in the year of the tiger, and the Hang Seng Index rose 4.34%
The Hong Kong stock market opened for only one and a half days this week (the morning of January 31 and the whole day of February 4), and the Hang Seng Index rose 4.34% during the week. By sector, Hang Seng technology and Hang Seng financial index rose 5.48% and 3.39% respectively. Among them, on February 4, Hong Kong stocks ushered in the first trading day of the year of the tiger. The Hang Seng index opened sharply higher by 2.22%, and then fell down. However, it soon rose again and showed a short rising trend. The intraday highest rose by 3.39%, and the closing price of the whole day still soared by 3.24%.
3. International oil prices rose for seven consecutive weeks, reaching a new high in recent seven years
As of 17:00 on February 4, 2022, the futures price of light crude oil for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was US $91.66 per barrel, up 1.54%; London Brent crude oil futures for April delivery closed at US $92.41 per barrel, up 1.47%, a new high since September 2014, which will also be the seventh consecutive week of rise in international oil prices.
At a time when international oil prices are rising, OPEC still refuses to increase production significantly. On February 2, the OPEC + alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia held a monthly oil production policy meeting. The video conference only took 16 minutes to reach a consensus and insisted on the original plan to increase production by 400000 barrels / day in March. This breaks the expectation that OPEC + is likely to accelerate production in view of the recent sharp rebound in oil prices.
4. Euro zone 10Y treasury bonds rose sharply, while the rise of us 10Y treasury bonds slowed down
As of February 3, 2022, the yields of 10-year Treasury bonds of France, Britain, Germany and the United States rose by 22.2bp, 11.62bp, 8bp and 4bp respectively. Among them, European countries have been affected by the UK’s continuous interest rate hikes and the hawkish remarks of the European Central Bank, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has increased significantly. With the market gradually digesting the expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike in March, the rise in the yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds slowed down this week.
quick review: during the Spring Festival holiday, the overall performance of the overseas market is good. The market gradually digested the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates, and the overall risk appetite rebounded. The NASDAQ led the market rebound. The Internet sector rose by nearly 10% on Tuesday. Hong Kong stocks also made a good start in the year of the tiger and strengthened significantly under the leadership of the science and technology sector. For a shares, the pre holiday market has been significantly corrected, and the risk sentiment has been basically fully released. Superimposed on the strong performance of peripheral markets, it is expected to boost the risk appetite of Chinese investors after the holiday, and A-Shares are also expected to have a good start.
V. institutions fully launched self purchase, and foreign capital continued to overweight China
1. The tide of fund self purchase continues, and many buyers join the self purchase army
The tide of self purchase of funds continued, and more private placement and asset management of securities companies joined the army of self purchase. Boshi fund, Haifutong and other seven public offerings and Dongzheng asset management announced self purchase, with a total scale of 380 million yuan. In terms of private placement, eight private placement companies including Jiukun investment and magic square quantification also announced that they would purchase their own products for a total of no less than 790 million yuan. Among them, magic square, a quantitative private placement giant, announced that the self purchase scale is no less than 350 million yuan, which is the largest self purchase amount in the market at present.
2. At the end of 2021, the net asset value of public funds hit another record high, and equity funds increased by for three consecutive years
China Foundation Association released the market data of public funds in December 2021. There were 137 fund management companies in China, with a total net asset value of 25.56 trillion yuan, another record high. Statistics show that by the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, the scale of equity funds reached a new high, reaching 8.73 trillion yuan. In addition to the slight decline in the scale in the fourth quarter of 2018, the scale of equity funds has shown a rapid growth trend for three consecutive years.
3. Qiaoshui fund further overweight RMB assets, highlighting the “oasis effect” of Chinese assets
According to the information disclosed by the world’s No. 1 hedge fund Jinqiao water fund, the total assets of its overseas issued Chinese funds have exceeded 34 billion yuan, and the company is further overweight its RMB assets. Under the trend of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, the signal of this move is obvious. The analysis shows that China’s economy and Chinese assets have “oasis effect” in a certain sense.
4. Before the Spring Festival, the central bank invested a net 200 billion yuan to maintain stable liquidity before the Spring Festival
The central bank announced that in order to maintain stable liquidity before the Spring Festival, two 14 day reverse repo operations of 100 billion yuan were carried out on January 29 and January 30 respectively, with a total net investment of 200 billion yuan. Wind data show that one week after the Spring Festival (February 7 to February 11), the central bank’s open market will have 900 billion yuan of reverse repo due, including 150 billion yuan due from Monday to Tuesday and 200 billion yuan due from Wednesday to Friday.
quick comment: the tide of self purchase of funds has continued recently. Although historically, the large-scale self purchase of public funds is not equal to the model of bottom reading, large-scale self purchase of funds is often one of the important bottom signals after the sharp decline of the market. The wave of fund self purchase shows the firm confidence of institutional investors in the medium and long-term improvement of the capital market, and the market pessimism is expected to be alleviated. At the same time, under the continuous warming of the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates, overseas funds represented by qiaoshui continue to overweight Chinese assets, indicating that the trend of foreign capital inflow remains unchanged and is also expected to support the Chinese market.
Vi. other highlights
1. The CSRC has accelerated the legislative work plan of the registration system, and the comprehensive registration system is gradually approaching
The CSRC recently formulated the legislative work plan for 2022 and made an overall deployment for the legislative work of the whole year. According to the work plan, in 2022, the CSRC will formulate regulations such as the administrative measures for the registration of initial public offerings and the administrative measures for the registration of securities issuance of listed companies, and will also cooperate with relevant departments of the State Council in the formulation of administrative regulations such as the regulations on the supervision and administration of listed companies, the regulations on the supervision and administration of corporate bonds and the regulations on the supervision and administration of securities companies Modification work, etc. Many insiders believe that the formulation of the administrative measures for the registration of initial public offerings means that the full implementation of the stock issuance registration system has been gradually approaching. Yi Huiman, chairman of the CSRC, also revealed in an interview a few days ago that the CSRC is speeding up the formulation of the reform plan of the whole market registration system and Solidly Promoting the relevant preparations. In addition, the CSRC has previously solicited public opinions on the implementation measures for ordering repurchase of fraudulent issuance of listed shares (Trial) (Draft for comments).
2 Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car sales continued to increase significantly in mid January
In January, the sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) new energy vehicles was 93200, a sharp increase of 361.7%; Xiaopeng sold 12900 cars, a year-on-year increase of 115%; Ideal cars delivered 12268 ideal one, a year-on-year increase of 128.1%; Weilai sold 9652 units, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%. In addition, the delivery volume of GAC ea’an, Nezha automobile and Zero run automobile in January all exceeded significantly.
3. The Ministry of industry and information technology will fully promote the development of new energy vehicles to a higher level this year
In 2022, the Ministry of industry and information technology will fully promote the development of new energy vehicles to a higher level. Luo Junjie, director of the operation monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said that the Ministry of industry and information technology will continue to strengthen the sorting of the industrial chain system, especially strengthen departmental coordination and provincial linkage, coordinate and solve the shortage of key parts such as chips, and promote the improvement of the supply capacity of the whole chip industry chain. Guo Shougang, deputy director of the first Department of equipment industry of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said that he would formulate policies and measures to support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles, maintain the effective connection of the policy system, comprehensively improve the guarantee capacity of key resources, strengthen communication with Qinghai, Sichuan, Jiangxi and other places, and coordinate and promote the acceleration of China’s lithium resource development.
4, China United Network Communications Limited(600050) was revoked by the Federal Communications Commission
On February 3, China United Network Communications Limited(600050) issued a statement saying that China United Network Communications Limited(600050) (America) Operation Co., Ltd. received an order from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to revoke the 214 license on February 2 local time. In this regard, China United Network Communications Limited(600050) said that the US FCC made the decision to revoke the 214 license of China United Network Communications Limited(600050) Americas without listing specific facts and due process, which will actively safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of the company and customers.
5. OPEC + decided to maintain the oil production increase in March at 400000 barrels / day
On February 2, 23 countries in the “OPEC +” alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they would slightly increase production and agreed to increase production by 400000 barrels per day from March 1 this year.
The OPEC + decision may not be able to curb the rise in oil prices, as the organization faces difficulties in achieving the same increase in production before. OPEC’s production increased by only 250000 B / D in January, compared with its quota of 400000 B / d. Although this is seasonal to some extent, it also reflects the lack of growth in drilling activities and relatively limited short-term idle capacity. In view of the strong demand for oil, the forecast of oil price rise is reiterated.
6. With the joint efforts of the four departments, the use of funds of listed companies ushered in the strictest supervision
China Securities Regulatory Commission, Ministry of public security, SASAC and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly launched the most stringent supervision on the use of funds of listed companies. The guidelines for the supervision of listed companies No. 8 – regulatory requirements for capital transactions and external guarantees of listed companies were issued to strengthen the regulatory requirements for capital transactions and external guarantees of listed companies. The four departments jointly establish a regulatory cooperation mechanism to strictly investigate and deal with illegal acts such as fund occupation and illegal guarantee. Those suspected of committing a crime shall be investigated for criminal responsibility according to law.
7. The supervision of overseas loans will be tightened, and the overseas loan business of 27 banks will be subject to unified management
The central bank and the safe issued the notice on matters related to overseas loan business of banking financial institutions. In principle, overseas loans issued by domestic banks shall be used for relevant expenditures within the business scope of overseas enterprises, shall not be used for securities investment and repayment of overseas debts under domestic insurance and foreign loans, and shall not be used for fictitious trade background transactions or other forms of speculative arbitrage transactions, It is not allowed to transfer the funds back to China for use by means of financing funds or equity investment. The central bank and the State Administration of foreign exchange also announced the unified management of the overseas loan business of 27 banks, including CDB, export import bank, agricultural development bank and six major banks.
8. The two ministries and commissions issued documents to speed up the construction of a national unified power market system
The two ministries and commissions issued documents to speed up the construction of the national unified power market system, proposing that by 2025, the national unified power market system will be preliminarily completed, and the market transaction and price mechanism conducive to the development of new energy and energy storage will be initially formed. By 2030, the national unified power market system will be basically completed to meet the requirements of the new power system. The national market will operate jointly with the provincial (District, city) / regional market. New energy will fully participate in market transactions, and market subjects will compete equally and choose independently.
9 and nine departments jointly issued the development plan of pharmaceutical industry in the 14th five year plan
The Ministry of industry and information technology and other nine departments jointly issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of the pharmaceutical industry, which proposed that during the “14th five year plan” period, the average annual growth rate of the operating revenue and total profit of the pharmaceutical industry remained above 8%, and the proportion of added value in all industries increased to about 5%; The concentration of industry leading enterprises was further improved. The R & D investment of the whole industry has increased by more than 10% annually; By 2025, the proportion of new sales of innovative products in the increment of operating revenue of the whole industry will further increase.
risk tips
pay attention to the repeated outbreaks outside China, the sharp fluctuations in the overseas market, and the strength of the steady growth policy is less than expected.
