1. Performance of major assets during the Spring Festival
equity: generally rising market, led by relevant Chinese stock indexes and poor performance of European stock indexes. in the stock market, most of the main stock indexes rose. Affected by the significant rise in bond yields of European countries, the stock indexes of European countries fell to varying degrees, with the German DAX index falling by 2.74%. China’s related stock indexes performed better, with NASDAQ Jinlong China index rising 8.3%, Hang Seng index rising 4.3%, and FTSE A50 futures rising nearly 2% during the holiday. All three major US stock indexes rose, with the NASDAQ index rising 5.6% and the S & P 500 index rising 4%.
Performance of Hong Kong stocks and US stocks: optional consumption and information technology led the rise. Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks are generally rising. From the leading industries, optional consumption and information technology led the rise. The optional consumption of the Hang Seng Index and the optional consumption index of the S & P 500 rose by more than 6%, followed by the Hang Seng technology index and the information technology index of the S & P 500, both rising by more than 5%.
commodities: energy performance is outstanding, and industrial metals also have a good performance. among them, soybeans and American oil rose nearly 6%, leading the rise of all commodities, while cloth oil and American oil both stood at $90 / barrel. Industrial metals also performed well, with copper prices rising by nearly 4% and precious metals rising by about 1%.
bond and foreign exchange markets: US bond yields rose above 1.9%, eurozone bond yields also rose sharply, and the US dollar index fell sharply. among them, the yield of US bonds rose to 1.93% from 1.78% before the holiday, with a rise of 15bp, all contributed by the rise of real interest rate. Bond yields in the eurozone, such as Germany and the UK, also rose sharply, and bond yields in the eurozone and Germany turned positive one after another. The US dollar index fell sharply by 1.8%, and the RMB exchange rate appreciated slightly.
2. Major events outside China during the Spring Festival
during the Spring Festival, the torch relay ceremony of the Winter Olympic Games was completed and officially opened, more ice and snow industry planning projects were issued at the same time, and the central bank arranged the pilot of digital RMB Winter Olympic scene in advance. After this week’s Winter Olympic torch relay ceremony, the opening ceremony of the 24th Winter Olympic Games was held at the National Stadium on the evening of February 4. At the same time, this week, the State Administration of Market Supervision issued 11 national standard plan projects for ice and snow sports, involving alpine skiing, speed skating, ice hockey, curling and other sports, covering the organization of ice and snow sports events, venue operation management, public ice and snow sports level evaluation, etc., which is of great significance for systematically standardizing the development of ice and snow industry. Previously, the construction plan of relying on sports culture in the Winter Olympic region was also officially issued. On January 30, the Ministry of culture and tourism, the national development and Reform Commission and the State Administration of sports jointly issued the construction plan of Beijing Zhangjiakou sports culture tourism belt. The planning covers a total area of 24800 square kilometers, covering the whole area of Beijing and Zhangjiakou. It includes eight parts: planning background, overall requirements, spatial layout, strengthening the post competition utilization of Olympic venues, jointly building a highland for cultural development, promoting high-quality development of tourism, deepening regional cooperative development and ensuring the implementation of the planning, Comprehensively connect major national strategies such as the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and promote the comprehensive utilization and low-carbon operation of Olympic venues. In addition, the people’s Bank of China has effectively promoted the financial service guarantee of the Winter Olympics. All the digital RMB scenes in the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee Park and within the red line have been implemented, the seven scenes outside the red line have been fully covered, and the construction of digital RMB acceptance environment for contracted hotels and designated hospitals has been completed.
On the occasion of the Winter Olympics, Chinese and Russian leaders met offline to deepen cooperation in economy and trade, energy, science and technology, finance, transportation and other fields. On the afternoon of February 4, Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing. This was also the first offline meeting between the two heads of state in more than two years. Russia expressed its willingness to continue to deepen cooperation with China in economy and trade, energy, science and technology, finance, transportation and other fields. After the event, the two sides issued the joint statement of the people’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation on international relations and global sustainable development in the new era, focusing on the common positions of China and Russia on the concept of democracy, development, security and order. The relevant departments of the two countries also signed a series of cooperation documents in key areas, mainly focusing on the fields of antitrust, aerospace, energy and digital economy, including the agreement on cooperation between the government of the people’s Republic of China and the government of the Russian Federation in the fields of antitrust law enforcement and competition policy Cooperation agreement between China Spacesat Co.Ltd(600118) Navigation System Committee (people’s Republic of China) and Russian State Aerospace Group (Russian Federation) on time interoperability of Beidou and GLONASS global satellite navigation systems, purchase and sales agreement of Far East natural gas between Petrochina Company Limited(601857) Natural Gas Group Co., Ltd. and Gazprom Memorandum of understanding on cooperation between Petrochina Company Limited(601857) Natural Gas Group Co., Ltd. and Rosneft in the field of low carbon development, and cooperation agreement in the field of informatization and digitization.
the UK and the European Central Bank continued to show hawkish positions this week by raising interest rates and stopping bond buying respectively. on February 3, the Bank of England raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50% in view of the current tight labor market and the continued signs of cost and price pressure in China, which is the first time that it has discussed interest rates twice in a row since 2004. At the same time, the committee unanimously voted for the Bank of England to stop reinvesting maturing assets, so as to start to reduce the stock of British government bonds, and unanimously agreed that the Bank of England began to reduce the stock of sterling non-financial investment grade corporate bonds by issuing central bank reserves, stopping reinvesting maturing assets and financing corporate bond plans. And reduce the stock of all corporate bond purchases no earlier than the end of 2023. In Europe, the European Central Bank announced on the same day that it would maintain the key interest rate unchanged and stop the PEPP (epidemic emergency purchase plan) project in March. Although fully in line with market expectations, at the subsequent press conference, ECB president Lagarde also sent a tightening signal, saying that compared with previous expectations, eurozone inflation may continue to rise for a longer time, but it will still decline during the year. Compared with the policy expectation in December last year, the risk of inflation outlook mainly focuses on further rising, especially in the short term. The current situation has indeed changed. The European money market bet that the rate hike of the ECB during the year also increased to 40 basis points from 25 basis points before the policy decision was announced.
the US January non farm data far exceeded market expectations, and the expectation of raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March increased significantly. According to the data released by the U.S. Department of labor on February 4, the non-agricultural employment population increased by 467000 in January, the largest increase since October last year, significantly higher than the 150000 expected by the market. In December, the number of non-agricultural workers also increased from the original 199000 to 510000, compared with 709000 in the previous two months.
In terms of other sub indicators, the US unemployment rate recorded 4% in January, up from 3.9%. The unemployment rate rebounded for the first time since June 2021. The employment participation rate in January rose slightly to 62.2% from 61.9% in the previous month. Although it is still lower than the level before the epidemic, it has improved significantly from the low point of 60.2% during the epidemic. The employment report also showed that the average hourly salary in the United States in January increased significantly by 5.7% year-on-year, far exceeding the market expectation of 5.2% and significantly higher than the previous value of 4.7%. The increase in wages may lead to the FOMC’s tendency to accelerate the end of monetary easing, for fear of a situation similar to the wage price spiral in the 1970s. In addition, jobs in the U.S. leisure and hotel industry, professional and service industries, retail trade, transportation and storage industries all recorded increases. After the release of non farm data, the US federal funds rate futures showed that the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March was as high as 35%, up from 18%.
the US House of Representatives voted to pass the US competition act of 2022, focusing on the development of high-tech manufacturing industries such as semiconductors. At the same time, the White House announced the extension of photovoltaic tariff policy, but the conditions were relaxed. On February 4, the US competition act of 2022 of the house of representatives will approve nearly US $300 billion for R & D, mainly including US $52 billion in the next five years to subsidize semiconductor manufacturing and the research, design and manufacturing of key components used in automobiles and computers; US $45 billion will be allocated in the next six years to alleviate the supply chain problems that exacerbate the shortage of important commodities; Change US trade rules to compete with China’s trade behavior, such as strengthening anti-dumping rules. The bill will authorize the United States to donate $8 billion to the Green Climate Fund established by the Paris agreement to help developing countries cope with climate change. On February 5, the official website of the White House issued a statement on Friday, confirming to extend the expiring photovoltaic import tariff policy for four years, but the scope of tariff collection has been reduced. Biden has made two major adjustments to the photovoltaic import tariff policy. The first is to exclude the double-sided Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery from the scope of taxation. In addition, the White House also announced to increase the threshold of protective tariff from 2.5gw to 5GW, and joined the duty-free supply channels of neighboring Canada and Mexico.
3. Summary of China’s consumption information during the Spring Festival
3.1, the “volume reduction and price increase” feature of this year’s Spring Festival is remarkable, and the proportion of box office of each film is relatively balanced
the box office of films in the Spring Festival this year is expected to be the same as that in 2019, slightly lower than that in the same period in 2021. The overall characteristics of “volume reduction and price rise” are significant. according to the real-time data of cat’s eye film, as of 12:00 on February 5, the box office revenue of the spring festival film in 2022 has reached 4.74 billion yuan. According to the prediction of the pre-sale box office, the cumulative total box office revenue of the spring festival film in 2022 is expected to reach 5.87 billion yuan, which is basically equal to 5.9 billion yuan in 2019, lower than 7.84 billion yuan in the same period in 2021. In terms of days, the first to third days of the lunar new year are the main concentration days of box office revenue of the Spring Festival. The one-day box office revenue of the first day of this year is 1.45 billion yuan, which is basically the same as that in 2019. The one-day box office revenue of the second and third days of the lunar new year are 1.05 billion yuan and 1.01 billion yuan respectively, both higher than that in the same period of 2019. From the perspective of volume price relationship, the characteristics of “volume reduction and price increase” of this year’s Spring Festival are significant. On the one hand, subject to the negative disturbance of local epidemic, the number of film viewers has decreased significantly compared with previous years. As of 12:00 on February 5, the total number of tickets issued for this year’s Spring Festival is only 88 million, which is a big gap compared with 160 million in 2021 and 130 million in 2019. On the other hand, the average ticket price of this year’s Spring Festival films has increased significantly compared with previous years. The average ticket price of 54.2 yuan has increased by nearly 10% compared with last year. On the whole, despite the negative disturbance of the local epidemic, the box office revenue of films in the Spring Festival this year has been basically the same as that in 2019 before the epidemic, but there is a certain gap with that in the same period in 2021, mainly due to the large decline in the number of film viewers and the significant characteristics of “volume reduction and price rise” as a whole.
the box office share of all films in the Spring Festival this year is relatively balanced, and the main theme films represented by “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake” are still the mainstream. from the perspective of single film, “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake” and “the killer is not too calm” led the box office of this year’s Spring Festival films. As of 12:00 on February 5, the cumulative box office was 2.04 billion and 1.02 billion respectively, accounting for 42.8% and 21.3% respectively. Among them, “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake” ranked 24th in Chinese film history. From the perspective of box office share, the box office share of all films in the Spring Festival this year is relatively balanced, and the total box office share of the top two is only 64.1%, which is a great improvement compared with the previous situation that the box office of Spring Festival and national day was concentrated in 1-2 films. On the whole, there has been a new trend in film consumption in recent years. On the one hand, the theme film is winning the love of more and more young audiences and becoming a “new mainstream” blockbuster in the market; On the other hand, the situation of “letting a hundred flowers bloom” in the main film schedule reappears, and the box office revenue is no longer too concentrated in 1-2 films.
3.2, passenger transmission is higher than that in 2021, but it is still significantly lower than the pre epidemic level
during the Spring Festival transportation this year, the total number of passengers sent across the country was higher than that in 2021, but it was still significantly lower than the level before the epidemic, and the local epidemic still had a certain negative inhibition on the repair of the transportation industry. this year’s spring transportation starts on January 17. According to the prediction of the Ministry of transport, it is expected to send 1.18 billion passengers during this year’s spring transportation. As of February 4, the cumulative number of Spring Festival passengers sent in 2022 was 460 million, an increase of more than 40% compared with 360 million in the same period in 2021, but it is still significantly lower than the level before the epidemic in 2019. The cumulative number of passengers sent is only equivalent to about 35% in the same period in 2019. In terms of the number of passengers sent five days before the Spring Festival holiday, roads and railways are still the main transportation options for passengers. The number of passengers sent on a single day from the first day to the fourth day of this year has increased by more than 30% compared with last year. Baidu migration scale index can also confirm the above judgment. The migration situation of this year’s Spring Festival transportation is also better than that of the same period last year. With the slow-release of the epidemic in China, the situation of residents returning home and traveling during the Spring Festival has improved. On the whole, the number of passengers sent during the Spring Festival transportation this year has been significantly repaired compared with last year, but it is still significantly lower than the level before the epidemic. The local Chinese new year brought by the local epidemic still has a certain negative inhibition on the repair of China’s transportation industry.
3.3, the tourism revenue and the number of tourists in key scenic spots have increased double
during the Spring Festival this year, the tourism revenue and the number of tourists in key scenic spots such as Sichuan have increased. The tourism situation in Beijing is not far from that in 2021, and it is difficult to change the local epidemic situation to a good repair trend. as some provinces and cities in the East are still negatively affected by the point epidemic, the central and western regions have become the main direction of inter provincial tourism during the Spring Festival this year. In Sichuan, the tourism revenue of key scenic spots in Sichuan Province and the number of tourists have increased both in volume and price this year, and the tourism situation has significantly warmed up compared with the past two years. As of February 4 (the fourth day of the first month), among the 695 A-level scenic spots included in the statistics of Sichuan Province, 15.2545 million tourists were received in five days during the holiday, realizing a ticket revenue of 140 million yuan. Compared with 2021, the cumulative number of visitors received in five days increased by 15.17% and the cumulative ticket revenue increased by 17.21%.
In Beijing, despite the negative disturbance of the epidemic during the holidays, combined with the positive role of the arrival of the Winter Olympic Games, the number of tourists and ticket revenue in Beijing during the Spring Festival this year are not far from those in 2021. Specifically, on the first four days of the holiday, 147 key tourist attractions in Beijing received a total of 3.941 million tourists (excluding the number of global Resorts), a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% compared with 2021 and an increase of 150% compared with 2020; The ticket revenue of the scenic spot is 302 million yuan (excluding the revenue of global resort), a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% compared with 2021 and an increase of 200% compared with 2020.
tourism in Hainan remains hot. From January 31 to February 3, the three airports in Hainan Island transported more than 400000 passengers. during the Spring Festival holiday this year, Hainan tourism remains hot, and the off Island duty-free market ushers in a shopping boom, which is expected to exceed the sales level of the same period last year. From the new year’s Eve on January 31 to the third day of the new year on February 3, the three airports under Hainan airport company, Haikou Meilan, Sanya Phoenix and Qionghai Boao, transported more than 400000 passengers in four days, ensuring more than 3000 flights. Among them, on February 3, the passenger throughput of Meilan Airport and Phoenix Airport reached 130000 person times. The subsequent passenger flow will show an upward trend, and the return passenger flow peak will be ushered in on the fifth and sixth day of the lunar new year.
