New energy vehicles are an industry that we have always attached great importance to and are tracking. This report was written in November last year, in which the judgment on the correction of middle and downstream manufacturers and the change of valuation logic of the automotive industry is still right. I hope this research report can help you invest in 2022.
This article was first published on December 14, 2021. Some contents are still of reference significance, so it is reissued.
part I: duplicate
1. Capital market performance: rising valuation, profit recovery and performance α And β Resonance
(1) overall trend: α And β Qifei, 2021 is the capital year of the automobile industry
in the selection of observation objects, we combed the whole new energy industry chain from upstream, midstream to downstream, and included hot tracks such as hydrogen fuel cells for analysis. in terms of industrial chain division, we divide the new energy industrial chain into four parts: downstream, namely, new energy vehicles (EV, PHEV) and related charging equipment; Midstream, that is, the power lithium-ion battery and motor used by new energy electric vehicles; Upstream, that is, the positive material, negative material, diaphragm and electrolyte of power lithium battery. In addition, we include the combing of two hot sectors: hydrogen fuel cell and skateboard chassis.
the performance of the main targets of the new energy vehicle industry chain in 2021 is eye-catching, and the market is unparalleled in all sectors. benefiting from the fact that the overall sales volume of the automobile market is still stable and the market share of new energy vehicles is eye-catching, it drives the valuation and profit of the new energy vehicle industry chain to rise, and drives the sector market to rise all the way. From the market trend, during the year (from January 1, 2021 to December 1, 2021), the weighted average increase of the total market value of CSI 300, Shenwan automobile sector and new energy automobile industry chain was - 10.96%, 19.92% and 41.72% respectively; Horizontally, the growth of new energy vehicle industry chain can rank the third place in the Shenwan classification, second only to electrical equipment (highly coincident with the new energy vehicle industry chain) and non-ferrous metals (driven by the commodity market during the year); The top five sectors were electrical equipment (50.1%), non-ferrous metals (48.2%), new energy (41.72%), mining (31.3%) and public utilities (30.0%).
investment opportunities for some tracks narrowed, and the allocation share of "secondary leader" increased. the overall institutional position concentration of the new energy vehicle sector has increased, and the target at the head of the subdivided track is favored by the organization. However, from the wind direction, the main force of institutional additional allocation has transitioned from the first leader to the "second leader", which indicates that the investment opportunities of some tracks have narrowed to a certain extent. From the perspective of institutional positions (including legal person shares), 2021q3 has been supplemented with Zhejiang Wanma Co.Ltd(002276) (+ 10.84%), Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (+ 6.61%), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (+ 15.84%), Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (+ 19.75%), Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) (+ 8.41%) and other charging piles, anode and cathode materials and electrolyte "secondary taps" compared with 2020q3.
(2) profitability: the overall profitability is repaired, and the upstream profit increases rapidly due to price factors
after the epidemic, the overall profit of the industrial chain was repaired well, and the net profit of the sector reached 42.4% in two years. according to the target pool data of the new energy vehicle industry chain constructed by us, in 2020, the overall net profit of Q3 new energy vehicle sector increased by 63.8% year-on-year (the low base effect of the epidemic last year), the overall net profit of the sector reached 42.4% in two years, and the main targets were Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (two-year gagr + 315.4%), Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) (two-year gagr + 210.5%), Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (two-year gagr + 95.3%), Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) (two-year gagr + 90.4%) Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (two-year gagr + 85.7%), Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (two-year gagr + 82.0%), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (two-year gagr + 66.5%), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (two-year gagr + 63.9%) and beiteri (two-year gagr + 58.8%) all have more than 50% of the two-year gagr.
the upstream sector benefited from the superposition of downstream growth and price factors, and the profit increased rapidly. in terms of industrial chain links, the corresponding Q3 year-on-year growth rates of downstream (vehicle and charging pile), midstream (battery and motor) and upstream (electrode, diaphragm and electrolyte) are 22.1%, 34.9% and 265.5% respectively, and the corresponding two-year gagr are 25.7%, 30.4% and 97.9% respectively. The profits of upstream battery positive pole and electrolyte manufacturers have increased rapidly due to price factors, This view can also be basically confirmed from the spot price of lithium hydroxide (lithium iron phosphate, raw material for ternary Li cathode preparation), lithium carbonate (raw material for lithium iron phosphate cathode preparation) and lithium hexafluorophosphate (electrolyte raw material).
(3) valuation: the dual logic main line confirms that the valuation of large sales and high-tech companies has increased significantly
the valuation of new energy vehicles is still strong, the valuation of downstream vehicles is rising, and the valuation of upstream lithium battery industry chain is slightly digested. according to wind data, the year-on-year (January 1, 2021 to December 1, 2021) rolling P / E ratio (overall method) of CSI 300, shenwanyi automobile classification and self built new energy industry chain increased or decreased by - 21.27%, - 0.59% and - 0.82% respectively, corresponding to 12 times, 44 times and 107 times of PE (TTM) at the end of the year. Under the condition of recovery of fundamentals, the valuation of new energy automobile industry is still strong. From the perspective of industrial chain, the rolling P / E ratio (overall method) of downstream (vehicle only), midstream (battery, motor) and upstream (positive and negative electrodes, diaphragm and electrolyte) corresponding to the year (January 1, 2021 - December 1, 2021) is 18.72%, - 16.65% and - 26.01% respectively, and the corresponding PE (TTM, overall method) at the end of the year is 115 times, 170 times and 73 times respectively. The valuation of downstream vehicle enterprises has increased significantly, The profit in the middle and upper reaches drives the digestion trend of valuation.
downstream vehicle valuation dual logic mainline confirmation. first, the traditional "manufacturing" valuation logic of automobile enterprises has changed to "consumption" logic, and the valuation center has a positive correlation with automobile sales. High market share brings high profit growth expectation; Second, the valuation of some auto upstarts and new forces of car making companies presents the logic of "science and technology". Auto enterprises with high technical barriers and good product experience can get higher valuation.
2. Total volume of automobile industry: the total volume is capped, the margin is warmed up, and new energy vehicles begin to increase in volume
(1) total: China's total automobile consumption has peaked in the short term, and the industry is in the active destocking cycle
China is the world's largest auto consumer, with sales of more than 25 million cars in the whole category. China has become the world's largest auto market for 12 consecutive years since its total auto sales exceeded the United States in 2009. According to the statistics of the International Automobile Manufacturing Association (oica), in 2020, China's automobile sales exceeded 25 million, ranking first in the world. The top five auto sales countries in 2020 are China (25.31 million), the United States (20.24 million), Japan (4.59 million), Germany (3.26 million) and India (2.93 million). China's annual auto sales have exceeded the sum of the United States and Japan. At the same time, on the one hand, in the main automobile markets (China, the United States, Japan and Germany), only the markets of China and the United States are still expanding. On the other hand, according to the data of the International Automobile Manufacturing Association (oica), since 2011, the sales volume of China, the United States, Japan and Germany has increased by 36.78%, 55.25%, 9.22% and - 6.85% respectively. Especially after the outbreak of the epidemic, all major automobile markets have been hit. In 2020, the annual sales volume of China, the United States, Japan and Germany decreased by 1.9%, 18.5%, 11.5% and 18.6% respectively compared with the previous year. Due to the strong overall resilience of the market and good epidemic control, China's automobile sales are less affected than other countries.
from the perspective of medium and short term, the sales volume of passenger cars in 2018 basically capped; Car sales showed signs of marginal recovery during the year. according to the data of generalized passenger cars, the sales volume of generalized passenger cars in 2018-2020 totaled 22.739 million, 21.015 million and 19.59 million. After the sales volume of passenger cars was capped in 2018, the market shrank significantly. From the high-frequency data, the cumulative sales of generalized passenger vehicles from January to October 2021 were 16.411 million, which had exceeded the total sales of 2020 (15.16 million) after the outbreak of the epidemic, and was slightly lower than that of 2019 (16.877 million) before the epidemic. There were signs of marginal recovery in automobile sales.
based on seasonal fluctuations, the sales volume of generalized passenger cars in 2021 may reach more than 20 million. generally, the annual automobile sales fluctuate seasonally. From the first quarter to the fourth quarter, the sales usually show "high low low high". During the autumn auto show in the third quarter, the automobile sales began to increase in volume. At the end of the year, the dealer sales impact performance superimposes the consumer's demand for car purchase for the new year, and the fourth quarter or the first quarter is usually the sales peak of the year. Due to the seasonal fluctuation of annual automobile sales, we selected the three years before the outbreak of the epidemic as the sample, set January each year as the benchmark, and observed three complete annual samples from January to December 2017, January to December 2018 and January to December 2019. According to the results, it can be seen that the sales volume of generalized passenger cars in each month of the whole year does have obvious periodic fluctuation relative to the multiple of January every year. We can get the seasonal factor of vehicle consumption by averaging the samples in three years, and calculate the sales volume of passenger cars in November and December through the seasonal factor. According to the calculation, the sales volume of generalized passenger cars in 2021 is expected to reach more than 20 million.
the passenger car market has entered the active destocking cycle. Compared with other consumer goods, cars have two obvious characteristics, so they have the conditions to produce inventory cycle. First, the automobile production process has obvious characteristics of "heavy industry". Automobile manufacturers have large production lines, large capital investment and long cycle span of capacity increase and decrease; Second, the sales model is relatively special. Most automobile sales in China adopt 4S mode. Dealers and manufacturers pay more attention to the overall inventory, and it takes a long time period to increase or decrease the inventory. Under the influence of these two characteristics, the gap between supply and demand in the automobile market will be repaired for a long time, which will produce obvious fluctuations, resulting in periodic changes in inventory. According to our division of automobile inventory cycle, China's automobile industry has been in the active destocking cycle by the end of 2021 (i.e. the total demand is reduced, and dealers and manufacturers take the initiative to clear up the backlog). With the confirmation of the bottom of demand, the automobile industry will reopen a new cycle of demand recovery, The industry will experience a cycle of passive destocking (the total demand will pick up, and the squeezed inventory will be digested by the market). The overall demand will pick up, or it will show a higher outlook, which is good for the traditional automobile enterprises under the "consumption" logic.
the opportunity to start a new cycle is the recovery of automobile demand, but the economic warming needs time, waiting for the arrival of a new business cycle. the delay of the epidemic, car consumption and chip shortage have exacerbated the volatility of the inventory cycle. On the one hand, the backlog of demand for the epidemic was basically released in the second half of 2020 and early 2021. Therefore, car sales fell in the third quarter compared with the same period in previous years. On the other hand, due to the shortage of chips, the inventory underpins the insufficient output, resulting in the continuous low inventory. Sluggish domestic demand and inventory clearing have exacerbated the fluctuation of the active destocking cycle. Both demand and inventory are down, and it is difficult to rise in the new cycle. Now it still takes time for sales to pick up, and the new cycle must wait for the economy to pick up first. Under optimistic expectations, the bottom of demand may be confirmed in the fourth quarter of this year.
(2) new energy: from policy driven to market driven, the penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles is close to 20%
the new energy vehicle market is basically mature and gradually enters the policy exit period. The industry has officially changed from policy driven to market driven. reviewing the development history of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China, the gradual popularization of electric vehicles in China has experienced many different development periods. First, during the introduction period, the new energy vehicle business was launched by the Ministry of science and technology, the Ministry of finance, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of industry and information technology in 2009, which is to complete the policy popularization of electric vehicles at the government (g) end and large enterprises (b) end through financial subsidies, The purpose is to strive to make the operation scale of the whole Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile account for 10% of the automobile market share by 2012. The second is the growth period, that is, the subsidy driven stage, which promotes the gradual penetration and popularization of new energy vehicles from b-end and g-end to C-end of individual users through financial subsidies for individual users and loose purchase restriction policies. The third is the mature period, that is, the backyard development of subsidies has officially shifted from policy driven to market driven. In early 2019, the four departments jointly issued the notice on further improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. The new energy subsidies have declined by 50%, the "cheating subsidy" no longer exists, and the new energy vehicle enterprises have undergone a major reshuffle. Now, with the completion of the transition from the passive subsidy and the withdrawal of 2.8 million vehicles from the emerging market to the formal subsidy driven market, it is expected to complete the overall development of the new energy driven industry in 2021, The monthly penetration rate is approaching 20%, which will also be the first year of policy support and market driven differentiation.
although the total automobile consumption is capped in the short term, the new energy vehicle market is hot. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in a single month is close to 20%, and the annual sales volume is expected to exceed 2.8 million. according to the data of China Automobile Association, the market penetration of new energy vehicles in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 (January October) were 2.31%, 4.45%, 4.95%, 5.96% and 14.23% respectively; The market penetration of new energy vehicles in August, September and October 2021 were 19.78%, 19.47% and 18.24% respectively, and the penetration of new energy vehicles in a single month was close to 20%; According to the calculation, taking the 2019 data before the outbreak as the seasonal fluctuation benchmark, we expect that the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2021 is expected to exceed 2.8 million.
(3) structure: the rise of independent brands promotes the high prospect of the new energy vehicle market
from the perspective of new energy vehicles, electric vehicles are still the absolute main force; The policy end of hydrogen energy vehicles began to work. from the perspective of technology path, according to the data of China industrial information network, the market share of various technology paths at present (2020) is pure electric (Bev) > ordinary hybrid (HEV) > plug-in hybrid (PHEV) > > fuel cell; Among them, the annual sales of ordinary hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric and fuel cell powered passenger vehicles in 2020 were 244261, 245157, 955541 and 0 respectively, with corresponding market shares of 1.23%, 1.23%, 4.81% and 0.00% respectively. Electric vehicles are still the absolute main force. Due to the high cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, insufficient popularity of hydrogen refueling stations, insufficient product power of independent brand hydrogen vehicles and other factors, the sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicles has been almost zero since 2015, and the hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicle market has not been officially launched so far. According to the roadmap of hydrogen saving and new fuel cell technology, the number of commercial vehicles is expected to reach about 1 million by 2035. According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, the actual ownership of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China from 2015 to 2020 was 0, 10, 639, 1911, 3438, 6175 and 7352 respectively. If the number of fuel cell vehicles reaches 1 million in 2035, the corresponding number of hydrogen energy vehicles in 2020-2035 will reach 38.8%.
entry level and mid-range new energy vehicles dominate the market. in terms of market share of new energy vehicles at all levels, class A (compact vehicles) > class B (medium-sized vehicles) > class A00 (mini vehicles) > class A0 (small vehicles) > class C (medium and large vehicles). From the perspective of trend, the growth momentum of A00 (mini car) and B (medium-sized car) in the past two years is rapid, which is contrary to the "two poles" of high-end and low-end car sales of fuel vehicles. The polarization of fuel vehicle market demand mainly comes from the upgrading of automobile consumption in the first and second tier cities, which drives the rise of sales of medium and high-end automobiles and luxury brands. The popularization of automobile consumption in rural areas drives the sharp increase of market share of low-end and functional passenger vehicles. The consumers of new energy vehicles are mostly concentrated in the first and second tier cities with complete charging infrastructure and restrictions on the purchase of fuel vehicles. Therefore, the demand for functionalization has become the main consideration when purchasing vehicles, driving the sales volume of A00 low-cost new energy vehicles to rise; At the same time, as the leading models of major manufacturers in the market are concentrated in class A (compact car) and class B (medium-sized car), the high-end market of electric vehicles has not been favored and recognized by high-end consumers on a large scale, and medium-end cars dominate the market.
the strong rise of independent brands and the fierce competition among waist manufacturers. in terms of car enterprises, according to the data of the passenger Federation, the top five car enterprises in the sales of new energy vehicles (including Bev and PHEV models in statistical caliber) from January to October 2021 were Byd Company Limited(002594) (410801), Tesla Motors (349397), SAIC GM Wuling (341757), SAIC passenger vehicles (133911) and Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (97966), respectively. The performance of independent brands was eye-catching. From the perspective of market concentration, the car sales Cr5 of new energy vehicle enterprises in 2019, 2020 and January October 2021 were 59.5%, 49.1% and 56.6% respectively, showing a fluctuating downward trend, and the competition among manufacturers tends to be fierce.
Part II: combing
1. Downstream - complete vehicle and charging pile: the rise of total demand has driven the double increase of valuation performance
(1) complete vehicle: high-quality models are on the stage, and the sales of new energy vehicles are strengthened at the micro level
Tesla's position remains unchanged and Byd Company Limited(002594) has an eye-catching performance. They occupy the main market share. according to the data of the passenger Association, the top five sales of pure electric vehicles (Bev) from January to October 2021 were Wuling Hongguang Mini ev (325166 vehicles), Tesla Model 3 (216583 vehicles), Tesla Model y (132814 vehicles), Byd Company Limited(002594) Han ev (66867 vehicles), and the top five sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) were Byd Company Limited(002594) Qin plus DM (78316 vehicles), Byd Company Limited(002594) song DM (49291 vehicles), Byd Company Limited(002594) Tang DM (31439 vehicles) Byd Company Limited(002594) Han DM (24256 vehicles), mingjue mg EHS (20344 vehicles).
2021 is the new year of new energy vehicle products, with frequent low total price and high-performance products. high quality models are on the stage, which explains the high penetration of new energy vehicles in 2021 from the micro level. In 2021, the market leading products Wuling Hongguang Mini EV, Tesla Model 3, Byd Company Limited(002594) Qin plus Bev and other models have longer range, higher configuration and more cost-effective under the condition of relatively low price from the perspective of calibrated range
the profitability of major manufacturers is in good repair, and the growth rate of gagr has become positive in the two years. take Byd Company Limited(002594) (main products Han EV and Qin plus Bev) and Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (main products Euler cat) as examples, Byd Company Limited(002594) q1-3 performance from 2019 to 2021 was 1.895 billion yuan (two-year gagr-26.0%), 4.902 billion yuan (two-year gagr 51.1%), 3.297 billion yuan (two-year gagr 31.9%), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) performance was 2.951 billion yuan (two-year gagr 1.0%) 2.587 billion yuan (two-year gagr-19.2%), 4.945 billion yuan (two-year gagr 29.4%). The new energy vehicle market turned to demand driven. In the post epidemic period, it benefited from the rebound in consumer demand for passenger vehicles. The two major domestic manufacturers eliminated the low base and high reading effect of the epidemic, and their net profit became positive in two years. The growth rate is expected to drive the valuation of relevant main engine manufacturers to rise significantly, realizing the double increase of valuation performance.
(2) charging pile: "new infrastructure" boosts the increase of new energy vehicle penetration, and the growth of the track is confirmed
"new infrastructure" enables charging pile track, and long-term growth is confirmed. relevant ministries and commissions have paid continuous attention to strengthening the charging infrastructure of new energy vehicles in recent years. In 2020, the central government also included it in the hypothetical planning of "new infrastructure" (5g base station construction, UHV, high-speed railway and urban rail transit, artificial intelligence, big data center, industrial Internet and charging pile of new energy vehicles). With the support of the new infrastructure policy, the heat of the charging pile market has increased sharply. As a supporting facility for the promotion of new energy vehicles, the charging pile market is expected to usher in a golden development period.
the mode of private piles dominated by vehicle enterprises runs with the mode of power stations dominated by operators, and the market share of private piles is dominant. from the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream, middle and downstream links of the charging pile industrial chain and their corresponding modes are as follows: upstream - Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) , Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) and other charging equipment and module suppliers; Midstream - special call ( Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) subsidiary), State Grid, star charging and other charging station operators purchase charging equipment from upstream manufacturers and charge downstream new energy vehicle charging fees; Downstream - for major new energy vehicle enterprises, vehicle users can charge from the operators of midstream charging stations, and vehicle enterprises can also provide charging equipment to vehicle users by purchasing charging equipment from upstream equipment suppliers.
From the perspective of specific business models, the business models involving charging piles can be divided into two categories. One is the dominant model of operators, such as State Grid and special call companies, which earn fees by purchasing charging equipment to provide charging services to automobile users; The second is the leading mode of automobile enterprises. For example, Tesla and Weilai provide charging pile setting services to car buyers. This mode does not directly generate income for automobile enterprises, but can help automobile enterprises complete the integration of ecological chain and improve the overall service quality and user experience.
the total construction of charging piles in China is highly related to the ownership of new energy vehicles, and there has been a large-scale trend. The total number of charging piles in China has exceeded 2.47 million}. According to the statistical data of China charging Union, the total construction amount of charging piles in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 (October) were 204000, 446000, 777000, 1223000, 1672000 and 2253000 respectively. The total construction amount of charging piles increased significantly with the increase of new energy vehicles in 2021. Structurally, the share of private charging piles has increased significantly. Charging piles can be divided into public charging piles (charging piles set up and operated by charging station operators, shopping malls, office buildings and other entities) and private charging piles (charging piles set up in personal parking spaces by electric vehicle enterprises or owners themselves and only used by owners). According to the data of charging alliance, the share of private charging piles (the number of private charging piles / the total number of public and private charging piles) increased from 33.0% in 2016 to 61.1% in 2020, and the share of private charging piles increased significantly. From the perspective of specific market pattern, taking public charging piles as an example, the top three market scale of current charging station operators are star charging (238597 units), special calls (232121 units) and State Grid (196484 units), with obvious head effect.
according to the market space calculated from the "pile vehicle" ratio, it is conservatively estimated that the charging pile market will have more than five times the space in the next five years. in 2015, the guidelines for the development of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (2015-2020) issued by the general office of the State Council planned that the "pile vehicle" ratio would reach 1:1 by the end of 2020, but this value has not yet been realized (only about 34%). According to conservative estimation, assuming that the number of new energy vehicles will be 20 million by 2025 and the "pile vehicle" ratio will be 50% in 2025, it is estimated that the total number of charging piles will reach more than 10 million by 2025, with a corresponding gagr of 43.01%.
from the perspective of capital market performance, with the higher market demand for charging piles driven by new energy vehicles, the valuation and performance of main related subjects increased. from the perspective of profitability, the main targets involved in the charging pile industry chain are driven by the improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, and the net profit still maintains a certain growth rate. The corresponding net profit of Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) and Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) 2021q3 increased by 24.0% and 19.2% year-on-year respectively; Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) due to the special call market share of its charge pile operator, which was run by star charging and the State Grid, the cost of charging pile paving in the early stage increased, and the net profit in 2021q3 was - 65.3% year-on-year. However, with the early cost recovery of charge pile and the high industry prosperity of charging station, the profitability is expected to narrow and stop falling. From the perspective of capital market valuation, Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) , Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) PE (TTM) rose by 52%, 72% and 83% respectively by the end of November. The industry growth expectation increased, driving the trend rise of valuation.
2. Midstream - battery and motor: beware of the valuation digestion of head enterprises and the risk of run on waist and tail fundamentals
(1) power battery: the overall situation has been determined, the leader is always strong, and be alert to the risk of medium and short-term valuation correction
Cathode material is the core element to distinguish the performance of power battery products. Our common secondary lithium batteries mainly rely on the back and forth intercalation and de intercalation of lithium ions between the positive and negative electrodes to realize the storage and release of energy. From the perspective of composition and structure, lithium-ion battery is mainly composed of four parts: first, the positive electrode. The positive electrode material is the key to determine the performance of power battery products, accounting for 30% to 40% of the cost of lithium-ion battery (GGII data), which directly affects the energy density and performance of lithium battery pack. Common positive electrode materials include lithium cobalt oxide, lithium manganate, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, etc; The second is the negative electrode, which plays the role of energy storage and release. At present, the negative electrode material is mainly graphite, which accounts for a relatively low proportion in the cost of lithium battery, and the technical barrier is slightly lower than that of the positive electrode; The third is the diaphragm. The main function of the diaphragm is to separate the positive and negative poles of the battery, which has electronic insulation while maintaining ionic conductivity, so as to realize the mechanical isolation of insulation between the positive and negative poles; The fourth is electrolyte, which plays the role of transporting charge between positive and negative electrodes. It affects the energy density, power density, wide temperature application, cycle life, safety performance and other factors of lithium battery pack
structurally, lithium iron phosphate batteries are rising rapidly. It is expected that the total installed capacity of power batteries will increase by about 35% in 2022. from the total market volume, the total installed capacity of various power batteries from January to October 2021 was 107.45gwh, an increase of 168.1% compared with 40.07gwh in the same period of 2020. From the perspective of demand structure, lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary material battery have two markets, accounting for almost all the market share. From January to October 2021, the installed capacity of ternary material and lithium iron phosphate is 54.05gwh and 53.21gwh respectively, and ternary material / lithium iron phosphate = 1.02 (the ratio is 2.11 from January to October 2020), benefiting from lower cost and technological upgrading ( Byd Company Limited(002594) blade battery), Lithium iron phosphate battery is rising rapidly. Through the calculation of the growth rate of electric vehicles, assuming that the total passenger vehicle market remains unchanged in 2022, and based on the 20% penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales in 2022 (the value in 2021 is about 14.8%), the total installed capacity of power batteries in 2022 will increase by 35.14% compared with that in 2021.
the competition pattern of manufacturers tends to be stable and the head effect is obvious. according to the data of China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, the top ten enterprises in China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery loading volume in the first three quarters of 2021 were Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , AVIC lithium battery, LG new energy, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , honeycomb energy, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Tafel NEW energy, Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) and Jiewei power. From the perspective of market concentration, the power lithium battery installation pattern is concentrated to head manufacturers such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and self supply core manufacturers such as Byd Company Limited(002594) . According to the data of China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, GGII and other institutions, the market concentration of power lithium battery manufacturers CR3, Cr5 and CR10 were 74%, 84% and 93% respectively in 2020. Among them, the power lithium battery manufacturer CR10 jumped to 93% from about 81% three years ago, and the CR10 from 2018 to 2020 were 83%, 88% and 93% respectively; In the first three quarters of 2021, a total of 54 power battery enterprises in Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market realized loading supporting, a decrease of 10 compared with the same period last year. The power battery loading volume of Cr3, Cr5 and CR10 power battery enterprises were 67.2gwh, 77.0gwh and 84.4gwh respectively, accounting for 73.0%, 83.6% and 91.7% of the total vehicle loading volume respectively; With the further advancement of the marketization process of the new energy vehicle industry, the concentration of power battery manufacturers has gradually increased, and the market concentration has gradually increased, and the trend is very obvious.
In the post subsidy stage, the advantages of technical barriers and bargaining power are gradually highlighted, and the headedness trend of power lithium battery manufacturers will be further established. First, technical barriers. From the perspective of technology, the dispute between iron lithium and ternary is becoming more and more intense. With the separation of lithium battery technology path and the stratification of manufacturing and technology level, which is conducive to the development of head enterprises, the Matthew effect of manufacturers will be further highlighted. Second, supplier control. Due to the obvious headedness of power lithium battery manufacturers, the head manufacturers have a high degree of market monopoly, and have stronger bargaining power with upstream positive and negative materials, diaphragms and even raw material suppliers. The profit space is much larger than that of small and medium-sized manufacturers, aggravating the headedness trend of market competition pattern.
the supply chain side pays attention to the demand of leading new energy vehicle enterprises. the upstream and downstream bargaining power of the head lithium battery manufacturers is strong, but the total demand for medium and short-term power lithium batteries of the secondary head manufacturers comes from the downstream main engine manufacturers, so the fundamentals of the upstream battery suppliers of the leading new energy vehicle enterprises are more supported. According to the company's annual reports, the first electric network, marklines and other data summary, according to the battery supplier information of Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Xiaopeng, Weilai, Toyota, BMW, Volkswagen, Geely and GAC, five listed companies Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (8), Byd Company Limited(002594) (2), Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) (1), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (2) and Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) (1) occupy a large market share.
The technology side focuses on Byd Company Limited(002594) blade battery technology and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) CTP (cell to pack) technology to drive the large-scale loading of enterprise batteries. generally, the endurance of ternary battery is strong, but the main raw material of ternary battery is cobalt, but the main origin of cobalt comes from Congo and the market is in a monopoly position. Due to the unstable supply of cobalt, its price is high, driving the high cost of ternary material; Lithium iron phosphate battery has relatively low cost and higher safety factor, but due to poor low temperature resistance, the energy density is damaged in winter. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) scheme - CTP (cell to pack) reduces the manufacturing cost of ternary battery. the battery pack carried on the general electric vehicle is assembled from the cell into the module, and then the module is assembled into the battery pack. CTP (cell to pack) is that the cell is directly integrated into the battery pack, thus eliminating the intermediate module link, increasing the energy density and reducing the manufacturing cost. According to the data disclosed by the information platform of car research society, the 21700 integrated large module used by Tesla Model 3 has reduced the battery cost by 35% compared with that before, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) CTP technology has the same effect. Byd Company Limited(002594) scheme - the Commission of blade battery increases the energy density of lithium iron phosphate battery. The research and development of blade battery of Byd Company Limited(002594) is based on lithium iron phosphate battery. The traditional battery mode is mostly cylindrical, and more voids will be formed after the single battery is stacked. In addition to the support cooling and support components, the space utilization rate can only reach more than 40%. The flat blade battery can reduce the invalid gap between single batteries, the space utilization is up to 60%, and the energy density can be improved. At the same time, the increase of surface area can also play a great role in heat dissipation.
the capital market side is vigilant against the risk of medium and short-term valuation correction. in the medium and short term, science and technology growth tracks, especially new energy vehicles, power batteries and other industries and tracks, have accumulated considerable growth. Although the company's external valuation is not too tight, once the historical water level is close to more than 80%, the company's internal valuation may not be very crowded. However, it is worth paying attention to. Once there is a slight increase in the previous text, the company's internal valuation is not very crowded.
(2) motor: the self-made motor of leading car enterprises will become the mainstream, focusing on new concept technologies such as hub motor
benefiting from China's rare earth resource reserves, permanent magnet synchronous motor has become the mainstream of the market with high output and low cost. in terms of technical scheme, common motors include DC motor, AC asynchronous motor and permanent magnet synchronous motor. Among them, DC motor is a direct drive motor with relatively simple structure and good electromagnetic torque control characteristics, but it is easy to produce electric sparks on the surface of commutator during high-speed and heavy load operation, which is easy to produce electromagnetic interference. It is relatively common in the early stage of electric vehicle development and has been basically eliminated at present; AC asynchronous motor is a motor that places the rotor in the rotating magnetic field to obtain the rotating torque to drive the rotor to rotate. AC asynchronous motor has small volume, light weight and low price. However, under the condition of high-speed operation, the rotor of the motor is seriously heated, and the motor cooling should be ensured during operation. At the same time, the driving and control system of asynchronous motor is very complex, and the cost of motor body is also high, Therefore, it is mainly used in high-power electric commercial vehicles; Permanent magnet synchronous motor is a synchronous motor that uses permanent magnet to establish excitation magnetic field. It has high (power / mass) ratio, smaller volume and lighter weight. However, rare earth materials are needed in the production of rare earth permanent magnet synchronous motor, and the manufacturing cost is not very stable. However, benefiting from the relatively rich rare earth resources, China prefers to use the electric vehicle drive scheme of permanent magnet synchronous motor, which has also become the motor scheme most used in electric vehicles today.
the total amount of motor loading will benefit with the increase of electric vehicle sales; The self-produced motor of leading car enterprises has become a trend, running against the market share of waist and tail motor manufacturers. from the perspective of the total market scale, the penetration dividend of new energy vehicles drives the recovery of motor demand. According to evtank's calculation data, it is estimated that the installed capacity of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile drive motors will reach 2.983 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 103.90%. By 2025, the shipment volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile drive motors will exceed 10 million. From the perspective of competition pattern, the domestic replacement of motors by mainstream automobile enterprises is just at that time, and the self-produced and self-used by leading automobile enterprises has become a trend. According to the data disclosed by evtank, the market share of Byd Company Limited(002594) motor in 2020 was 13.2%, ranking first; Tesla motor's market share is 9.9%, ranking second; The market share of Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) is 6.7%, ranking the top three; Weiran power, Ningbo Shuangxiu, Volkswagen, Nippon power, BorgWarner, Jinjing electric and Shanghai electric drive ranked among the top ten in China, with market shares of 6.0%, 5.9%, 5.2%, 5.1%, 4.0%, 3.4% and 3.0% respectively.
the total growth rate of the track is still increasing, but under the trend of self-made motors made by head car enterprises, non head manufacturers are basically facing a downturn, and guard against the risk of crowding out market share. from the perspective of total market volume, the growth dividend of new energy vehicles superimposed on the "dual electric 4WD" released the demand for motors, boosting the improvement of the overall fundamentals of the industry. At present, the market share of new energy vehicles is class A (compact car) > class B (medium-sized car) > class A00 (mini car) > class A0 (small car) > class C (medium-sized car). Due to the rapid growth momentum of class B (medium-sized car), the "dual motor + 4WD" has become the mainstream configuration, and the doubling of motor demand is expected to boost the high prospect of the motor market. However, from the perspective of structure, although the total motor market has great expansion potential, the market share is mainly occupied by self-made motors of head enterprises such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla and velai. According to evtank's statistics and forecast data, the market scale of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile drive motor will be about 7.464 billion yuan in 2020. If calculated according to the market pattern in 2020, the upper limit of theoretical market share corresponding to Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) and Jing-Jin Electric Technologies Co.Ltd(688280) will be 500 million and 254 million respectively. There is little space for waist and tail motor enterprises, which are basically facing difficulties.
At the same time, benefiting from the high sentiment of the market for the new energy vehicle industry chain, the relevant targets have accumulated no small increase in 2021, and the market callback risk of waist and tail motor enterprises is worthy of attention.
hub motor - new concept technology deserves attention, and we should be vigilant against the risk of technology path. hub motor is a system that integrates the vehicle's power system, transmission system and braking system into the hub. On the one hand, the application of hub motor can simplify the structure of the vehicle to the greatest extent, save more space and weight, and reduce the repair and maintenance cost caused by complex mechanical structure. On the other hand, if each wheel of the vehicle is equipped with a hub motor, each tire can be driven separately, so as to realize a variety of complex driving modes. The differential lock and full-time four-wheel drive system of traditional fuel vehicles will no longer have any advantages. Therefore, the hub motor has strong application value for special vehicles. However, at the same time, the hub motor increases the unsprung mass and the moment of inertia of the hub, which affects the vehicle handling performance. The physical space occupied by the hub motor system is too small, resulting in limited acceleration and braking performance. In addition, the hub motor system also has high requirements for sealing and heat dissipation. Therefore, the risk of alert technology path is also worthy of vigilance, We should adhere to the early investment idea and implement the hub motor track investment. If the technical path is correct, we will win all, and if the path is wrong, we will lose all. As the hub motor technology is still not the mainstream path of technology in the world, there are few relevant manufacturers in China, but Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) , Zhejiang Vie Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002590) , Tate electromechanical and other enterprises have rapidly promoted the development of hub drive motor and its application in new energy vehicles through joint ventures and cooperation with international manufacturers. Among them, Zhejiang Vie Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002590) and Tate electromechanical have withdrawn or been acquired one after another.
3. Upstream - electrode, diaphragm and electrolyte: focus on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) double tap supply chain
(1) cathode: the core of lithium battery performance. Ternary and lithium iron phosphate Market realize differentiated competition
cathode material is one of the key materials to determine the performance of lithium-ion battery. cathode material has always been the core of lithium-ion battery. The choice of cathode material directly determines the performance of the battery. Common cathode materials are mainly oxides. They have higher electrode potential than lithium, which can ensure that the battery has higher open circuit voltage. In terms of cost, power battery is one of the integrated components with the highest cost of the whole vehicle, and the cathode material accounts for about 40% of the cost of lithium battery. Whether from the perspective of cost or technology, the cathode material is the core of lithium battery. As cathode materials have a great impact on battery performance, major manufacturers have long been committed to developing cathode materials with higher performance based on different technical solutions. Common cathode materials for lithium batteries mainly include lithium ternary (NCM), lithium iron phosphate (LFP), lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) and lithium manganate (LMO). After years of technical path iteration, LFP and NCM now occupy almost all the market share of new energy vehicle power batteries.
ternary materials - "high nickel" is the development trend of ternary cathode materials. At present, "medium nickel ternary" is still the mainstream of the market. ternary material is the common name of lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide with very similar structure to lithium cobalt oxide. Among them, nickel, cobalt and manganese can be balanced and regulated in terms of specific energy, recyclability, safety and cost. The different configuration of nickel, cobalt and manganese will bring different properties to the material: the increase of nickel content will increase the capacity of the material, but will worsen the cycle performance; The existence of cobalt can make the material structure more stable, but too high content will reduce the capacity. At the same time, the main origin of cobalt comes from Congo and the market is in a monopoly position. Due to the unstable supply of cobalt, the cost increases; The existence of manganese can reduce the cost and improve the safety performance, but too high content will destroy the layered structure of the material. Therefore, finding the proportional relationship of the three materials to achieve the optimization of comprehensive performance is the focus of ternary material research and development.
According to the proportion of nickel, cobalt and manganese, the common ternary positive electrodes in the current market can be divided into ncm523, ncm622 and ncm811 (the last three digits represent the proportion of nickel (n), cobalt (c) and manganese (m), for example, the proportion of nickel, cobalt and manganese in ncm523 is 5:3:2). The nickel content of ncm523 accounts for 30.8%. Gu calls it "medium nickel ternary". Similarly, the nickel contents of ncm622 and ncm811 are 37.3% and 50.7% respectively, which can become "medium high nickel ternary" and "high nickel ternary". Because the mass proportions of nickel, cobalt and manganese are different, the properties of the above types of ternary cathode materials also have their own advantages and disadvantages. For example, ncm523 has low energy density but high overall cost performance; Ncm811 has obvious advantages in energy density, but the process threshold is higher and the manufacturing is more difficult. Therefore, in terms of market share, ncm523 with higher comprehensive cost performance accounts for a larger market share. According to xinlune information data, in 2020, the market share of ternary cathode corresponding to ncm523, ncm622 and ncm811 was 53%, 20% and 22% respectively
lithium iron phosphate - low cost + low performance = high cost performance. The way for lithium iron phosphate to break the game lies in technological breakthrough. lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) is one of the most commonly used lithium ion cathode materials in addition to ternary materials. Compared with ternary cathode, it has better safety and lower production cost, but the corresponding battery energy density is lower and the battery attenuation is more serious in winter. The theoretical specific capacity of lithium iron phosphate is 170ma / g and the voltage platform is 3.7V. It has good thermal stability, small moisture absorption, excellent charge discharge cycle performance and low production cost. It has become the focus of research, production and development in the field of power lithium-ion battery in addition to ternary materials. However, due to the limitation of its own structure, the lithium-ion battery with LiFePO4 as the cathode material has poor conductivity, slow lithium ion diffusion rate, poor discharge performance at low temperature and low energy density. As a representative of "low cost + low performance", lithium iron phosphate batteries have been mostly used in low-end and cost-effective models for a long time. Now Byd Company Limited(002594) blade batteries have been installed on Han EV and other models. The length of blade battery cells is greater than 0.6m, which are arranged together in an array and inserted into the battery pack like a "blade". On the one hand, it can improve the space utilization of the power battery pack and increase the energy density, on the other hand, it can ensure that the cells have a large enough heat dissipation area, It can transfer the internal heat to the outside, so as to match the higher energy density. Through the integration without module, the blade battery realizes relatively higher energy density and relatively medium manufacturing cost, while taking into account other performance such as heat dissipation.
A00 cars drive lithium iron phosphate, and medium and high-end cars drive ternary materials. The two achieve differentiated competition, and the market share game will continue. in terms of the total market share, ternary material positive battery and lithium iron phosphate positive battery occupy almost all the market share. According to the data of China automotive power battery industry alliance, the installed vehicles of ternary material positive battery and lithium iron phosphate positive battery reached 54.05gwh and 53.21gwh respectively from January to October 2021, an increase of 100.1% and 316.4% respectively compared with the same period last year (the first October), The growth rate is very rapid. At the same time, lithium iron phosphate performed better and its market share increased rapidly. The installed capacity ratio of ternary material positive battery / lithium iron phosphate positive battery decreased from 2.11 in the same period last year to 1.02 this year.
Our explanation for this phenomenon is that medium nickel ternary is commonly used in class a vehicles, high nickel ternary is commonly used in class B and class C vehicles, while lithium iron phosphate is mainly used in class A00 and other micro vehicles. This can also be confirmed by comparing the proportion of ternary market with that of class C new energy vehicle market, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate Market with that of class A00 vehicle market. The proportion of ternary market is highly related to that of class C market, The market share of lithium iron phosphate is highly correlated with that of A00 car. Therefore, the lithium iron phosphate battery benefited from the fact that the mini car became the main force in the electric vehicle market, superimposed the large amount of Byd Company Limited(002594) blade battery, the overall prosperity increased significantly, and quickly seized the market share. However, in essence, the overlap of target users of ternary material positive battery and lithium iron phosphate positive battery is still not high, and their markets have achieved dislocation development. Therefore, the installed capacity of both will continue to be high in the future.
the positive head continues to gather and pay attention to the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) supply chain. from the perspective of competition pattern, the market share of ternary cathode and lithium iron phosphate cathode continues to move closer to the head. According to the data summary of GGII, xinlune information, true lithium research and other parties, the top ten manufacturers of cathode material market share in 2020 are Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (lithium iron phosphate, 9%), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (ternary material, 8%), beiteri (lithium iron phosphate, 8%), Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) (lithium iron phosphate, 6%), Tianjin BAMO (ternary material, 6%), Hunan Yuneng (lithium iron phosphate, 6%), Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) (ternary material, 6%) Hubei Wanrun (lithium iron phosphate, 5%), Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (ternary material, 5%), Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) (ternary material, 5%), CR10 up to 64%. Due to the obvious head effect of power battery, according to the data collected and sorted out by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, GGII and other institutions, the market concentration of power lithium battery manufacturers CR3, Cr5 and CR10 were 74%, 84% and 93% respectively in 2020, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (the global market share reached 29.9% in 2021h), Byd Company Limited(002594) and other head manufacturers' supply chain enterprises deserve attention.
(2) negative pole: pay attention to the rise in profits caused by capacity gap in the short term and the leader of non carbon materials in the long term
Artificial graphite is the main material used as the negative electrode of power lithium battery. the negative electrode is the carrier of lithium ions and electrons in the charging process of the battery, which plays the role of energy storage and release. Therefore, the following factors must be considered when selecting the negative electrode material: first, the material selected as the negative electrode must meet the insertion redox potential of lithium ions in the negative electrode matrix as low as possible; second, the inserted compound should have good electronic conductivity and ionic conductivity, and the inserted compound has good chemical stability in the whole voltage range, In order to ensure the normal operation of the battery while maintaining higher energy density and stability. In terms of element classification, the existing negative electrode materials can be divided into carbon materials and non carbon materials. Among them, carbon materials include graphite materials (natural graphite, artificial graphite and mesophase carbon potential ball) and other carbon systems (hard carbon, soft carbon and graphene); Non carbon materials can be subdivided into titanium based materials, silicon based materials, tin based materials, nitrides and metal lithium. Compared with other materials, artificial graphite has good cycle performance, superior safety, mature process, easy access to raw materials and low cost. It is the mainstream choice in the market. According to the information disclosed by GGII, the market share of artificial graphite products will reach 84% in 2020. The shipment of nickel based battery is expected to be delayed, and the delivery of nickel based battery is expected to be higher than that of other negative battery systems, which is mainly affected by the decline of negative battery models in China.
graphitization accounts for the largest proportion in the manufacturing process, and the electricity price graphitization is the main cost. It is estimated that the power consumption cost per ton of artificial graphite negative electrode is as high as 8750-10500 yuan. the traditional artificial graphite process is divided into four parts: one is pretreatment, that is, according to different products, the graphite raw materials and asphalt are mixed in different proportions, put into the air flow mill for air flow grinding, and grind the raw and auxiliary materials with particle size of 5 ~ 10mm to 5-10 microns. The second is granulation, that is, put the middle into the reactor and conduct electric heating according to the temperature curve. Then the volatile gas in the reactor is extracted by the fan, condensed by the condensing tank, and the liquid is condensed in the form of tar. The gaseous waste gas is led out by the fan and drained after being filtered by activated carbon. Third, graphitization - graphitization of granulated materials. Usually, this step adopts outsourcing mode, which is the main cost in the whole production process. Fourth, ball milling and screening - the graphitized materials are transported to the ball mill through vacuum for physical mixing and ball milling. 270 mesh molecular sieve is used for screening, and the substances under the sieve are inspected, measured, packaged and put into storage. Artificial graphite negative electrode material has heavy traditional manufacturing properties, and the cost is mainly in the upstream labor cost and electricity. According to the announcement of Sunward Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(002097) , the power consumption of crucible Acheson furnace, van furnace and continuous graphite furnace is about 10000-12000kwh / ton, 7000-8000kwh / ton and 5500kwh / ton. At present, the power consumption of industrial electricity is 1.025 yuan / kwh in peak period, 0.725 yuan / kwh in normal period and 0.425 yuan / kwh in valley period, If the ratio of peak time, normal time and valley time is 1:1:0, the power consumption cost of the corresponding production process is 8750-10500 yuan / ton, 6125-7000 yuan / ton and 4813 yuan / 10000 ton respectively. If the annual production capacity is 10000 tons, the annual pure electricity cost for the preparation of artificial graphite is about 87.5 million to 105 million yuan.
the scale of Chinese enterprises is "going to sea", and the competition situation of manufacturers is still. from the perspective of China's market pattern, according to the data disclosed by GGII, the top five enterprises in the market share of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) lithium battery cathode materials in 2020 are beiteri (China's market share is 20%), Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) (16%), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (17%), Kaijin energy (13%) and Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) (7%), respectively. Manufacturers in the Chinese market show a competition pattern of "three most small", and Cr5 is 73%. In terms of the global market, Chinese enterprises occupy the vast majority of the global power battery cathode market. According to GGII data, the top five global power lithium battery cathode materials market share in 2020 are Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (12% of the global market share), beiteri (10%), Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) (10%), Kaijin energy (7%) and POSCO (5%). Chinese enterprises "go to sea" to seize the global share. As the negative electrode materials have not yet entered the cycle of technological innovation, the barriers to participation are mainly production capital. Compared with the positive electrode materials and power lithium batteries downstream of the industrial chain, the technical barriers are lower, so the competition situation of manufacturers is still.
pay attention to the limited production capacity in the short term to promote the profit growth of head enterprises, and pay attention to the long-term growth of non-carbon material leaders in the long term. on the one hand, in the short term, the state has stepped up the dual control policy on energy consumption layer by layer to strictly control high energy consumption and high emission projects. Under the "dual control" system of energy consumption, high energy consumption industries such as graphitization of cathode materials bear the brunt. Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, it is stipulated that ordinary power and high-power graphite electrode pressing equipment, roasting equipment and production lines in the autonomous region, and graphite electrode production lines with a diameter of less than 600mm will be withdrawn in principle by the end of 2021. Therefore, in the short term, the production capacity of artificial graphite cathode will be reduced. At the same time, because the graphitization process is mostly outsourced in the production process of artificial graphite anode, manufacturers with high market share and high self-sufficiency rate of graphitization process will benefit from this under the cathode capacity gap.
On the other hand, although the large-scale production technology of artificial graphite has been quite mature, its current technical conditions have approached its theoretical specific capacity of 372mah / g, which is difficult to meet the market demand for high-capacity lithium-ion batteries. At present, the large-scale application of carbon silicon negative electrode materials has not been formed, and the development of silicon-based negative electrode technology of most manufacturers is still in the conceptual stage. However, from a long-term perspective, new technologies such as silicon-based negative electrode with higher gram capacity deserve attention.
(3) diaphragm and electrolyte: the era of solid-state battery is far from coming, and the demand is still on the last leg
it is difficult for solid-state batteries to have an impact on the diaphragm and electrolyte market in the short term. in the current lithium battery technology path, liquid lithium-ion batteries occupy the mainstream. Among them, diaphragm and electrolyte are the key materials of lithium-ion battery. The performance of diaphragm determines the interface structure and internal resistance of battery, which directly affects the capacity, cycle and safety performance of battery. Diaphragm with excellent performance has important uses for improving the comprehensive performance of battery; As an important medium to ensure that the working ions move at a certain rate between the positive and negative electrodes in the process of battery charging and discharging, electrolyte constitutes the current generated in the whole circuit, which also has a great impact on the overall operation efficiency and safety of lithium battery. However, from the perspective of technical path, the path of solid-state battery is likely to have an impact on liquid lithium-ion battery in the future. The positive material used by them is the same as the negative material, and the working principle of the battery is basically the same. However, liquid lithium-ion battery uses liquid electrolyte, while solid-state battery is replaced by solid polymer electrolyte, Solid polymer electrolyte can be used as electrolyte and diaphragm at the same time, so electrolyte and diaphragm are no longer needed in solid-state battery in the real sense. Solid state batteries have certain advantages over traditional liquid batteries in terms of safety performance and energy density. If this technical path is fully realized, it will replace the existing diaphragm and electrolyte market. However, from the current development status of solid-state battery, the technical concept is more than practical, and the production cost is too high. It is difficult to become the mainstream technical scheme in the market in recent years, and it is difficult for solid-state battery to have an impact on the diaphragm and electrolyte market in the short term.
with high nickel ternary lithium circuit diameter, wet diaphragm manufacturers are expected to usher in secondary growth. lithium battery diaphragm is generally divided into dry process and wet process according to process. Dry process diaphragm is to prepare high oriented polypropylene or polyethylene film with low crystallinity by producing hard elastic fiber, and obtain high crystallinity film in the process of high temperature annealing; Wet diaphragm is that liquid hydrocarbon or some small molecular substances are mixed with polyolefin resin, heated and melted to form a uniform mixture, then cooled for phase separation, pressed to obtain the diaphragm, then heated to the temperature close to the melting point, biaxially stretched to orient the molecular chain, and finally held for a certain time, eluting the residual solvent with volatile substances, Microporous membrane materials can be prepared. In terms of physical and mechanical properties, the diaphragm produced by dry unidirectional stretching process has more advantages, but the lithium battery diaphragm produced by wet production process has high porosity and good air permeability, which can meet the requirements of high current charging and discharging of power battery. At present, most lithium iron phosphate batteries in power batteries use dry diaphragm, while most ternary lithium batteries use wet diaphragm. At present, the demand for wet diaphragm caused by the increase of ternary battery installed capacity is increasing. At the same time, lithium iron phosphate is being upgraded. There is a trend for high-end lithium iron phosphate batteries to turn dry diaphragm to wet diaphragm, In general, the wet diaphragm with relatively good performance will be more likely to become the mainstream technology path.
the difference of electrolyte products is small, and the competitiveness of manufacturers mainly lies in the bargaining power brought by market share and industrial chain monopoly. electrolyte, as the "blood of lithium battery", is used to conduct electrons between the positive and negative electrodes in the battery, which is an important guarantee for lithium-ion battery to obtain the advantages of high voltage and high specific energy. According to the data disclosed by talent magazine, according to the cost proportion, solvents account for about 30%, lithium salts account for about 40-50% and additives account for about 10-30%. Among them, the cost of solutes and solvents account for the majority, resulting in small differences in electrolyte products of various manufacturers. Head manufacturers cooperate with many upstream electrolysis manufacturers to ensure the stability of raw material procurement demand, Under the competition pattern of electrolyte industry with highly concentrated market share, the competitiveness of manufacturers mainly lies in the bargaining power brought by market share and industrial chain monopoly. Head and large suppliers can obtain a good business environment and profitability for a long time under the condition of good market prosperity.
the fundamentals are ahead of the valuation. In the pre solid state battery era, the market share is large. from the perspective of fundamentals, the growth of upstream diaphragm electrolyte is strong. The two-year gagr of Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) net profit is 66.5%, 4.2%, 315.4% and 90.4% respectively, corresponding to the increase of PE (TTM) within the year of - 9.4%, 36.3%, - 22.7% and - 38.8% respectively. The strong fundamentals drive the valuation digestion significantly. Based on the current development status of solid-state battery, the technical concept is more than practical, and the production cost is too high. In recent years, it is difficult to become the mainstream technical scheme in the market. In the short term, solid-state battery is difficult to have an impact on the diaphragm and electrolyte market, and pay attention to the leading upstream manufacturers with large market share.
4. Other sectors - hydrogen fuel cell, skateboard chassis: technological innovation, see how long space
(1) hydrogen fuel cell: the market does not move, the policy moves first, and runs with electric technology
The series connection of fuel cell and motor is the core of realizing hydrogen power in automobile. fuel cell is an energy conversion device, which directly converts the chemical energy stored in fuel (i.e. hydrogen) and oxidant into electrical energy according to the working principle of primary cell. Through the cooperation of hydrogen fuel cell and motor, the vehicle can realize the supply of hydrogen and convert it into electric energy to drive the vehicle motor, so as to realize the conversion of energy. Compared with traditional electric vehicles, fuel cell technology not only retains the advantages of good driving performance and comfortable ride, but also has incomparable advantages such as fast energy supplement and long mileage, taking into account the advantages of electric vehicles and traditional power vehicles to a certain extent.
PEMFC benefits from the hydrogen vehicle market, and the installed capacity occupies a dominant position in all kinds of batteries. proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) refers to a fuel cell solution using water-based acidic polymer membrane as its electrolyte and platinum based electrode. PEMFC battery can operate at relatively low temperature and can customize the electrical output to meet the dynamic power demand, so it is the most commonly used battery solution for fuel cell vehicles. Its main advantages are obvious: fast start-up of power generation reaction, low requirements for operating conditions (extreme high temperature is not required), and air can be directly used as oxidant (pure oxygen does not need to be added separately). According to the review 2020 of fuel cell industry released by e4tech, a website of ERM group, the installed capacity of various fuel cells in the world will reach 1318.7 MW in 2020. Among them, the installed capacity market shares of PEMFC, DMFC, PAFC, SOFC, MCFC and AFC are 1029.7, 0.4, 132.2, 147.5, 8.8 and 0.1 respectively, and the corresponding market shares are 78.1%, 0.1%, 10.0%, 11.2%, 0.7% and 0.1% respectively. PEMFC benefited from the hydrogen vehicle market, with the installed capacity accounting for 78.1% of the market, and rapidly increased from 341.0 MW in 2016 to 1029.7 MW in 2020.
China's fuel cell shipments grew rapidly, but due to the small demand for hydrogen vehicles, the overall scale of the fuel cell market is small. according to the statistical data of the monthly database of fuel cell vehicles released by GGII, the installed capacity of China's hydrogen fuel cell system in 2020 was about 79.2mw, a year-on-year decrease of 37%. Among them, the total installed capacity of hydrogen fuel cell system on passenger cars was about 71.7mw, with a year-on-year increase of 46%. At present, the top five manufacturers in China's domestic fuel cell market share are Edelman, Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) , Guohong remodeling, discovery automobile and Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) respectively. The market share of shipments is 20.1%, 15.4%, 11.9%, 11.6% and 10.0% respectively, and the market share of shipments of other manufacturers is 31.0%.
policy overweight, hydrogen energy technology will be the first alternative path of electric energy from a long-term perspective. after hydrogen reacts with oxygen in the air as energy, it can bring power to the car and produce only water vapor at the same time. It is the most ideal emission reduction technology. There is no need to worry about the carbon dioxide emission from the downstream car engine to the upstream power generation, and it can better achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization. Therefore, in recent years, the technical path of hydrogen energy vehicles has been strongly supported by national policies. During the two sessions in 2019, hydrogen energy was written into the government work report for the first time, and then the release of fuel cell vehicle demonstration application policy and new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035) injected impetus into the development of hydrogen energy industry. In addition, in recent years, many provinces and cities have also issued the "14th five year plan" to promote the development of hydrogen energy industry. On the whole, hydrogen energy technology will be the first alternative path of electric energy in the future. With the encouragement of policies, the pace of hydrogen energy industrialization is expected to speed up.
(2) skateboard chassis: the "4WD" chassis integration technology is expected to redefine the car
the skateboard chassis is derived from the non load-bearing body technology, redefines the car as "car = chassis + shell", and promotes the "Computerization" of electric vehicle manufacturing. recently, rivian, jointly invested by Amazon and Ford, has attracted extensive attention in U.S. stocks. After listing, its market value is close to $100 billion. When a car is not sold, rivian has become the third largest car company in the world after Tesla and Toyota. Rivian's focus mainly comes from its new chassis form - "skateboard chassis" technology, which is expected to redefine the car. The skateboard chassis is derived from the non load-bearing body technology. It is a general chassis scheme that can reduce the development burden of the whole vehicle. The main engine factory only needs to make the upper body part, and the lower part can be stretched into the required adaptive layout by taking advantage of the freely adjustable characteristics of the skateboard chassis, so as to realize "car = chassis + shell", that is, the skateboard chassis manufacturers such as rivian and pixmoving, which integrate the motor, battery The transmission system, electric control system, suspension system and other components are all integrated on the sliding sector chassis, and then the sliding sector chassis is sold to the automobile main engine factory as a whole. The main engine factory purchases the sliding sector chassis and makes personalized design for the vehicle model on the basis of the chassis. If the skateboard chassis technology is popularized, the main engine factory will not need to focus on the development of automobile mechanical properties in the future, but turn to software development and overall product design to boost the "Computerization" of electric vehicle manufacturing technology.
the technical barrier of skateboard chassis is not high, but the market barrier is high. Pay attention to China head electric main engine factory. on the one hand, the underlying technology of the skateboard chassis is not complex, mainly due to the integration of batteries, motors, electronic controls and traditional mechanical components, and the technical barrier is not high. On the other hand, contracting the chassis and electric mechanical system of the main engine plant is equivalent to seizing the profit share from the main engine plant, and the market barrier is high. Therefore, the skateboard chassis technology in China will probably be initiated by Byd Company Limited(002594) and other head Electric Vehicle OEMs with battery and electronic control system manufacturing technology.
Part III: outlook
1. China's total annual automobile sales basically peaked in the short term, and the increment depends on the long term
Under the background of doubling domestic demand, China's auto market still has long-term growth potential. with the improvement of per capita GDP, the total scale of China's automobile market will still have some room for development in theory by 2035. The prosperity is directly related to the high level of consumption per capita and the operation of the country's economy. On the premise of the same level in infrastructure construction and automobile purchase policy, there is a highly positive correlation between passenger car sales and per capita GDP. According to the data of the world bank and the International Automobile Manufacturing Association (oica), we can make a regression analysis on the number of vehicles purchased per capita and the per capita GDP of each country in 2019 in the world's top 20 automobile consuming countries. The two have a strong linear relationship and can be approximately regarded as a positive proportional relationship.
according to the calculation of Professor Lin Yifu of Peking University, China's per capita GDP will reach 23000 US dollars in 2035. Therefore, it is the most optimistic estimate that China's automobile market still has about double space. taking a relatively conservative estimation method, we take the per capita GDP of US $20000 as the expected per capita GDP in 2035. If other factors are not considered, China's per capita GDP will still have room to double by 2035 based on the sales of 25 million passenger cars in 2020. Therefore, it is estimated in this way that under the most optimistic and ideal conditions, China's passenger car consumption market will have the potential to consume 50 million vehicles per year in 2035. However, this growth space is only a theoretical possibility, and many factors such as purchase restriction, urbanization and infrastructure construction remain to be observed. As there is no sign of significant relaxation of the purchase restriction policy in some large and medium-sized cities, the urbanization expansion is gradually slowing down, and the automobile consumption will increase slowly at a rate slower than the economic growth in the long run, the growth space of twice the annual automobile sales and the consumption potential of 50 million vehicles can only be regarded as the theoretical limit of the Chinese market by 2035.
2. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is still increasing, and the logic of "sauce and wine" of the track is still established
according to the analysis of the industrial planning roadmap, the new energy market will account for 50% in 2035, and the annual sales scale of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric, hydrogen fuel cell and other new energy vehicles may reach 10 million. according to the contents of the road map of energy saving and new energy vehicle technology prepared by experts organized by China Society of automotive engineering under the guidance of the Ministry of industry and information technology in October 2020, by 2035, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle market will account for more than 50%, energy-saving vehicles will fully realize hybrid power, and the automotive industry will realize electric transformation. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the market penetration of new energy vehicles in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 (January October) were 2.31%, 4.45%, 4.95%, 5.96% and 14.23% respectively; The market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in August, September and October 2021 was 19.78%, 19.47% and 18.24% respectively. Taking the data of 2019 before the outbreak as the seasonal fluctuation benchmark, we expect that the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2021 is expected to exceed 2.8 million, corresponding to a market share of about 14.8%. Taking 50% as the target, the market share has about three times the expansion space, It can be simply estimated that the total consumption of new energy vehicles has about six times the space of superposition of two times of the total number of vehicles, and the gagr can reach 12.69% from 2021 to 2035.
Automobile is like the Baijiu industry. New energy vehicles are like sauce and Baijiu, and the liquor industry is at the top of the total volume, but the market share of sauce wine is rising continuously.
3. The integration of traditional car enterprises, new car upstarts and new forces in car manufacturing will become a trend
from the supply side, China's passenger car market is now divided into three parts: traditional car enterprises, new car upstarts and new forces in car manufacturing. we roughly divide the main engine plants participating in China's automobile market into three categories. First, traditional automobile enterprises, namely Mercedes Benz, BMW, Toyota and other traditional automobile companies with a century of history. At present, the traditional car enterprises are facing the pressure of technological upgrading and policy constraints, and are seeking the transformation of electrification or hydrogen energy based on their years of car manufacturing process. Second, car upstarts, namely big names in 3C and home appliances industries such as Xiaomi, Midea and Huawei, have frequently entered the bureau to build cars. For example, Midea entered the automotive upstream parts market in May, 21. The new product category covers five categories of products of three systems: auxiliary (automatic) driving, thermal management and motor drive, including drive motor, electric compressor, electronic water pump, electronic oil pump, electronic power steering and other parts. By horizontally extending the application to the automotive industry according to its own development endowment; Huawei entered the field of intelligent cockpit by building an on-board system - Huawei inside, and opened its own 3C Industrial Ecological closed loop through the integration of Huawei hi Yu Hongmeng OS operating system. Third, the new forces of car making, namely Weilai, Xiaopeng and other emerging electric vehicle manufacturers outside China, have risen strongly through Internet-based product design.
traditional car enterprises and new forces of car making are merging with each other. on the one hand, the three forces have their own advantages, and now differentiated competition has been formed. On the other hand, the traditional car enterprises and the new forces of car manufacturing are integrating with each other and learning from each other. Due to the great difference between the new energy vehicle technology and the traditional fuel vehicle technology, the gearbox, engine and other core technologies involved in the production process of fuel vehicles, the first mover advantage of traditional vehicle enterprises in the field of new energy no longer exists, and the new forces of vehicle manufacturing and traditional vehicle enterprises return to the same starting line to stimulate their potential through competition. In the long run, traditional fuel vehicle enterprises should learn from the innovative spirit of new energy vehicle making forces, and new vehicle making forces should learn from the technical accumulation of traditional fuel vehicle enterprises.
4. Short term new energy vehicles run in both electricity and hydrogen, but long-term investment should still adhere to the "technology path is the king"
the current energy-saving technical route is relatively mature and easy to practice, but it still can not completely solve the problem of carbon emission. as an important place for traditional fuel use, the automobile industry is the key direction for China to achieve the overall goal of carbon reduction. At present, there are three main technical paths for the automobile industry to achieve emission reduction: first, produce more energy-saving vehicles and directly reduce carbon emissions; The second is to realize the centralized management of carbon emissions through electric vehicles, and then manage the power generation mode to achieve emission reduction; Third, hydrogen energy vehicles are theoretically absolutely clean through technological innovation. The three methods have their own advantages and disadvantages.
electric vehicles have become the mainstream in the three major technological paths, and China has "corner advantage". First, electric vehicles can get rid of energy dependence. Today, China is the world's largest oil importer, importing more than 400 million tons of crude oil every year, accounting for nearly 70% of the total consumption of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) . While electric technology only relies on power generation, with the popularization of nuclear power, hydropower and other means, the problem of energy security will be alleviated; Second, China's electric vehicle technology still has "corner advantages". Now China has developed a relatively complete and high-level new energy industry chain.
from a long-term perspective, hydrogen energy and electric energy run together, and the winner of the technical path is the king. Although hydrogen fuel cell has no pollution and high efficiency, it is expensive and does not have practical conditions in low-end models. In the short term, the hydrogen energy policy is strengthened, and the hydrogen energy technology will be the first alternative path of electric energy. With the encouragement of the policy, the rhythm of hydrogen energy industrialization is expected to speed up, and the market's expectation of future hydrogen energy application scenarios is more clear. However, in the long run, promoting hydrogen energy at the national level is a behavior of "walking on two legs", and more attention should be paid to investment, and the technical path is correct.
5. It is difficult to say the result of the dispute between "ternary iron lithium" of lithium battery, and the two continue to realize differentiated competition
the dispute over the technical path between lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary material battery arises again, but the user overlap between them is not high; A00 grade iron lithium, medium and high-end vehicle three yuan. according to the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary material battery in the first October of 2021, the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery has increased rapidly and once exceeded that of ternary material battery (the installed volume ratio of ternary material positive battery / lithium iron phosphate positive battery decreased from 2.11 in the same period last year to 1.02 this year). However, this should not be understood as the competition of technology path. The overall overlap between lithium iron phosphate battery and downstream users of ternary material battery is not high. On the one hand, ternary material batteries have high energy density and high cost, which are suitable for medium and high-end vehicles, high horsepower and long-life electric vehicles. Except for a few products ( Byd Company Limited(002594) blade batteries), most lithium iron phosphate batteries have low cost, low energy density and serious recession in winter. They are suitable for entry-level and low-cost A00 or A0 vehicles, which realize differential competition, In the long run, the market share of lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary material battery will continue in 2020.
6. Demand side subsidies are declining, supply side policies are overweight, and the linkage between double points and carbon trading is expected to get through
"double points" policy includes nev points and CAFC points, which correspond to two emission reduction paths respectively. double points include new energy vehicle points (nev points) and average fuel consumption points (CAFC points) of passenger car enterprises. Car enterprises can earn nev points and CAFC points by producing new energy vehicles and fuel-efficient vehicles. If the car enterprises fail to meet the assessment standards, they can accumulate enough points in three ways: carry forward - car enterprises can use the points left over in the previous year in proportion; Offsetting - the same group subsidiaries use the points of each other's balances; Purchase - if the first two methods are not enough, you can only purchase two kinds of points from other car enterprises on the "double points" trading website of the equipment department of the Ministry of industry and information technology every year. However, due to the imperfect trading mechanism and small trading market, the integral price is high.
it is suggested to promote the integration of "double points" trading and carbon trading as soon as possible to tackle the emission reduction of the automotive industry. the automobile industry has always been the most important place for energy conservation and emission reduction, and the realization of the "30.60" goal is bound to tackle the difficulties. At present, the integral transaction between automobile enterprises is directional one-to-one transaction, and the phenomenon of information asymmetry is serious, so the market effectiveness is low, resulting in the failure of price signal; At the same time, because carbon emissions are materialized into points, the circulation range is framed between automobile enterprises, which limits the liquidity of points to a large extent and the effectiveness of the market. Therefore, we should try to promote the integration of "double points" trading and carbon trading, solve the problem of market effectiveness, and promote the automotive industry to complete the revolutionary transformation of energy by market-oriented means.
7. The market position of downstream leading new energy vehicle enterprises tends to be stable, and the competition among non leading vehicle enterprises is becoming more and more intense
from the perspective of market concentration, the waist competition of new energy automobile main engine plants is fierce, and the "double leading" pattern of the head is basically stable. in the first 10 months of this year, the competition pattern of the main manufacturers of new energy vehicles (including electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles) showed two superpowers - "double leader" Byd Company Limited(002594) (a total of 410801 vehicles were sold, including Byd Company Limited(002594) Tang DM, Byd Company Limited(002594) Han EV, Byd Company Limited(002594) Qin plus DM and Tesla) (a total of 349397 vehicles are sold, and the main models include model 3, model y, model s, model x, etc.), SAIC GM Wuling (341757 vehicles, and the main model is Wuling Hongguang Mini EV), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (97966 vehicles, and the main model is Euler Cat Series). The car sales Cr5 of new energy vehicle enterprises in 2019, 2020 and January October 2021 were 59.5%, 49.1% and 56.6% respectively, with obvious shocks.
On the one hand, the "double leading" pattern of Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) domestic and foreign new energy vehicle enterprises has been basically established, and their respective consumer markets and shares are basically stable; On the other hand, the competition among non head manufacturers is fierce. Wuling, great wall and other car enterprises' products are entry-level low-cost models such as mini EV, Euler black cat and Euler good cat. The market share is greatly affected by the product power and price of a single product, so the market share of a single car enterprise is not stable. On the whole, the waist competition of the main engine factory is fierce, and the "double leading" grid of the head is basically stable, and this trend is expected to continue to the next few years.
8. Davis double click has been reached, and be alert to the risk of valuation callback of midstream component manufacturers
although there is still a large market growth space for new energy vehicles and power lithium battery track from a long-term perspective, it is still worth paying attention to whether the added value of the industry matches the valuation growth in the medium and short term. from the long-term perspective of five or even ten years, there are three ways for the new energy vehicle and power lithium battery industry chain to continue to expand the market share: first, expand the total vehicle market, but according to the analysis, although the margin recovers in the short term, there is little possibility of explosive growth in the vehicle market; Second, expand the proportion of new energy vehicles in the total number of vehicles. Now this situation is happening, which is the only increment of new energy vehicles and power lithium battery track; Third, the market share of installed capacity of battery manufacturers has increased, that is, continue to strengthen the monopoly position of head manufacturers, and it is difficult to have trend changes in the short term. In the medium and short term, the possibility of triple factor superposition exponential growth of new energy vehicles and power lithium battery track has been weakened, so we should be vigilant against valuation risks in the short term. Whether the added value of the industry matches the valuation growth is still worth discussing. In the medium and short term, science and technology growth track, especially new energy vehicles, power batteries and other industries and tracks, has accumulated considerable growth. Superimposed on the previous analysis, the track is now relatively crowded, and the historical valuation water level of many companies is close to 80% or even more than 90%. Once the internal liquidity is not too loose and the external liquidity is slightly tightened, the valuation market may be killed, and the risk is very noteworthy.
9. Upstream investment should always pay attention to technology path switching, and there is a final process
the upstream of the new energy industry chain, especially the electrolyte and diaphragm tracks, are close to the end of the first curve. Although the demand still has the last journey, we should always pay attention to the technical path switching. taking the negative electrode material as an example, graphite is the most common and cost-effective negative electrode material at present. However, compared with graphite negative electrode materials, silicon carbon negative electrode materials have ultra-high theoretical specific capacity and low lithium removal potential. Under the background of the gradual improvement of the requirements for the energy density of lithium-ion batteries and the gradual maturity of battery manufacturers for the high nickel system, the upgrading of graphite negative electrode system to silicon-based negative electrode system is likely to become the main direction. At present, the technical level of upstream electrode materials and electrolyte products is close to the end of the first curve. Although the demand still has the last leg, the emergence of emerging technologies such as solid-state batteries is likely to have a devastating impact on the corresponding track and target. Investment should always pay attention to the change of technology path.
The auto industry is at the crossroads of the times
First, the industry valuation logic has changed from "cycle" to "big consumption" and "big technology". the biggest change in the automotive industry since last year is the change in valuation logic. On the one hand, the "manufacturing" valuation logic of traditional auto enterprises has changed into "consumption" logic, and the valuation center has a positive correlation with auto sales. High market share brings high profit growth expectation; On the other hand, the valuation of some auto upstarts and new forces of car making companies presents the logic of "science and technology". Auto enterprises with high technical barriers and good product experience can get higher valuation.
Second, the second half of the energy revolution has come, and the development path of the automobile industry is very different. under the pressure of climate problems, countries all over the world are relying on their own technological resources to carry out different technological path R & D. Common new energy power technologies include hybrid, plug-in hybrid, incremental electric, pure electric and hydrogen fuel cell. Chinese enterprises have more successful products in many fields and maintain a leading position, only lagging behind in hydrogen energy technology. Nowadays, there are still great disputes about the two development paths of pure electric and hydrogen energy power. Now we are also at the crossroads of energy technology development. Apple wins and Nokia loses.
third, the infrastructure revolution is coming, which brings new opportunities for the development of the automobile industry. in 2020, the "new infrastructure" will speed up, and the digital upgrading of traditional industries will usher in new development opportunities. In the "new infrastructure", 5g, big data, artificial intelligence and industrial Internet have become the focus of development in the next stage, which is of great significance to the construction of smart cars, smart transportation and smart city related facilities. The application of big data and industrial Internet technology will promote the transformation of the business model of the automotive industry. By providing assistance for the digital development of manufacturing, it can improve the digital and intelligent manufacturing level of the automotive industry as a whole. The promotion of "new infrastructure" will accelerate the innovation speed in the fields of automotive technology research and development, business model and production model, and will bring disruptive changes to the automotive industry.
