With the continuous evolution of the real estate situation, what changes have taken place in the front line of the market? Recently, the reporter of E company investigated the real estate market in 9 key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Hefei and Changsha, and felt the real pulse of the market.
From now on, e company has launched the column of “exploring key cities in the real estate market”, a daily report on real estate research in key cities for readers.
The sixth part is about Hefei. In the past year, Hefei property market has experienced “roller coaster” ups and downs.
Taking the new real estate policy issued on April 6, 2021 as the watershed, policies such as the degree system, restrictions on the purchase of second-hand houses in popular areas and the “lottery + sales restriction” of new houses have been increased layer by layer. The second-hand housing transaction in Hefei has “turned cold” from the peak cliff style, and the “No. 1 hard to find” effect of new houses has gradually subsided. Just need to buy houses has been guaranteed, and investors have become more and more rational.
What new changes have taken place in Hefei property market, which has been cold for more than half a year? In the actual exploration and interview, the reporter learned that the polarization of new house sales is serious, and under the “spillover effect” of urban purchase restriction, the county new house market is more popular; On the other hand, stimulated by the deregulation of housing loan quota and the acceleration of lending, the trading volume of second-hand houses shows signs of “thawing”, but in the view of most intermediaries, the warming signal is still not obvious, and it will take some time for market confidence to recover.
new house sales
Over the past year, “Yaohao dozen new” is undoubtedly an unavoidable hot word in the new housing market.
I still remember that in early 2021, the topic of ” carrying 2 million, but can’t buy a house in Hefei” pushed the hidden rules such as full payment + head fee in Hefei new house sales to the forefront of the storm, “it’s difficult to find a house” situation to the extreme. On April 6, 2021, the Hefei municipal government made precise policies, requiring that hot buildings with the ratio of the number of registered buyers to the number of houses available for sale greater than (including equal to) 1.5 should be sold by lottery, in which the supply of houses just needed should not be less than 30%, and the houses purchased by lottery should not be listed and traded within three years after obtaining the production certificate. Therefore, Hefei officially entered the “era of lottery”.
According to the statistics of Leju house purchase, Hefei registered 265 times in 2021, with more than 74400 people successfully registered, and more than 60 hot dishes touched the lottery. From the registration situation over the years, the obvious polarization has always been the main line hidden in it: Binhu, Gaoxin and Baohe, with good location, scarce land supply and serious upside down of new house prices, have become the “favored children of heaven”, registrants flocked to it, and once there was a hot scene of a single “shake by ten thousand people”; However, there are few new stations and Yaohai with abundant land supply and still in the development stage, and some buildings are even ignored.
“There are only a few buildings that have been opened. We still have the last Western-style house in our project. It is estimated that it will not be opened until years later. The probability is that we need to wave numbers.” Amber qingchuanli real estate consultant told reporters. The real estate is located at the intersection of Shanghai Road and Huanghe Road in Baohe district. It is a hot provincial capital North Central Park sector. The average sales price is 21500 yuan / square. The hanging price of Jiuxu second-hand house, which is only one way away from Longhu jingling, has exceeded 30000 yuan / square, with a huge price difference. The reporter noted that, unlike other project marketing centers located in conspicuous places, the sales department in amber Qingchuan is quite hidden, which can only be reached through a long and narrow corridor with corners, which is quite confident that “the smell of wine is not afraid of the depth of the alley”
(amber qingchuanli Sales Department of “wine is not afraid of deep alleys”)
Subsequently, the reporter came to Jingfeng, Zhongjun world city, which belongs to the North sector of the provincial capital together with amber qingchuanli. On that day, it was the opening of three small high-rise buildings promoted by it, and 180 houses could be sold. The reporter saw that the marketing center was crowded with all kinds of “house grabbing” people, and many onlookers gathered in the periphery. The parking lot of the sales department was “full”, many property buyers parked their cars on the roadside, and the traffic police maintained order at the scene. “Although we are a lottery, if there are still houses left after the ‘winning’ customers choose a house, others can still ‘pick up the leak’. I have at least four groups of interested customers waiting in the parking lot now. They have prepared enough funds. Once someone gives up choosing a house, they can pick it up at any time.” A real estate consultant said
(Zhongjun world city jingfengli house selection site)
(there are many “fans” around the Sales Department of Zhongjun world city jingfengli)
According to the data, up to now, there have been about 30 registrations in January 2022, and four wave numbers have been triggered. Three buildings are located in Binhu and Baohe. Although Blue City Binhe Bay has put forward the strict requirement of freezing 80% of non rigid capital, the number of participants in registration is still as high as 1134, and the comprehensive winning rate is only 14%.
The aforementioned hot scenes are rarely staged in the new station area. The reporter drove to the vocational education city of the new station. Before the car stopped steadily, it was “intercepted” by many people who took a look at the real estate, and the atmosphere of robbing customers was very strong. The area is far from the central urban area and is in the construction period. It has gathered many new sites, such as rongchuang yunqi star, Jinhui Jinxiu Yunting, Yuzhou Jiayu Shangli, wenyilang Shuxuan and so on. The reporter stayed in wenyilang Shuxuan sales center in the region for nearly half an hour, and no group of customers came to the door. In terms of price, the real estate is full of sincerity. Not only does the total price drop by more than 30000, but for customers with a high proportion of down payment, there are discounts ranging from several hundred yuan per square meter, and the average price is in the early 16000 after conversion
(wenyilang bookstore is unpopular)
there is something fishy behind the decline of the heat of wagging
“No matter when the real estate with good location and high cost performance is put, it is very popular. In fact, the transaction of new houses in non popular areas can better reflect the cold and warm of the housing market.” An insider who has long been concerned about the Hefei property market told reporters that the number of buildings in Hefei that need to be Yaohao has decreased in recent months. According to the local shooting situation, the supply-demand relationship of new houses in Binhu, economic development and other regions is expected to be alleviated, and the number of Yaohao may be further reduced.
According to the statistics of Hefei Shell Research Institute, in July 2021, the ratio of registered and audited customers to quasi sold houses in Hefei reached a peak of 499%, and the popularity of new houses decreased slowly in the following months. In December, the ratio of approved and quasi sold houses was only 127%, and only 3 of the 22 buildings needed to wave numbers. In January this year, Jiayuan Yuhe Bay in Luyang District even had 0 registration.
The reporter is concerned that some buildings that need to wave numbers in the early stage are not as hot as before. For example, in Jingfeng, Zhongjun world city, Baohe District, the comprehensive winning rate of the first two small high-rise buildings opened in mid January was only 27%. Although the three small high-rise buildings added at the end of January still need to wave numbers, the comprehensive winning rate has risen to 45%; The high-speed era Academy in Shushan canal new town attracted more than 700 people to register when it first opened in September, with a comprehensive winning rate of less than 20%, but the new houses promoted in December no longer need to wave numbers; Xuhui Wangjiang, which is also located in the canal new town, is close to the new No. 8 middle school in Hefei, which is about to start construction. Although it occupies all the geographical advantages, distribution has been introduced in the sales process to speed up the promotion speed.
“On the one hand, the new policy of Yaohao has digested a lot of rigid needs. On the other hand, the transaction of second-hand houses is cold, which greatly limits the replacement demand of customers. In addition, Yaohao houses have a three-year sales period, superimposed with a two-year delivery period, which means that customers’ funds need to be locked for five years, and investment customers generally think twice.
”The aforementioned industry insiders said.
It is reported that the number of registered persons and the supply of houses are greater than 1.5. The number lottery and house selection need to be carried out in the witness of the notary office. The publicity link is superimposed. The cycle is generally about half a month, and the whole process is open and transparent, with almost no black box operation space. in practice, some buildings seem to guide customers to bypass the registration link to avoid the number rocking of the notary office. “the notary office has a long period of lottery for house selection and customers’ payment collection. We generally do not recommend customers to register through official channels. If you like a house, you can book it directly with us without registering first. If there is no problem with the down payment and there is no defect in the credit investigation, you can basically ensure that you can choose a house.” A real estate consultant from the Sales Department of Cuiyu Yunzhu in the Economic Development Zone told reporters that the company will also monitor the background registration data. If it is found that the registration proportion may exceed 1.5, we will inform you that it is too late to register, but this possibility is very small.
The aforementioned insiders told reporters that 30% of the lottery real estate needs to be supplied to the rigid demand with low down payment, while the developers prefer the house buyers with high down payment in order to speed up the payment collection. There is a certain contradiction between the two. Avoiding the lottery at the notary office means independent sales. Developers have greater flexibility and initiative in selecting customers. However, for customers, without registration, they may not be notified of house selection first, which has a certain risk.
The reporter learned that the sales methods of self-sale real estate are also different. Some are Yaohao in the case field, and some customers are first come, first served. ” before the opening, we screened our customers at all levels, and notified them one by one on the opening day. Whoever arrived first can choose first. One of our customers was in Ma’anshan. Because he couldn’t arrive in time on the opening day, he missed his favorite floor, and finally gave up directly. ” a real estate consultant of Weixing jiuduhui in the Economic Development Zone told reporters.
county market is popular
Hefei urban area has increased restrictions on sales and purchase, and the demand for house purchase has begun to overflow, and the county market backed by the urban area is gradually gaining momentum. Among the four counties in Hefei, Feixi County is close to the junction with high tech, government affairs, lakeside and economic development. It has the best location advantage and has become the biggest beneficiary.
According to the data of Hefu Research Institute, in 2021, the new house removal rate in Feixi reached more than 85%, and some buildings were close to 100%, which can be seen from the heat.
“Most of the time, our sales department has to receive 400 groups of customers a day. Each real estate consultant has a large number of interested customers, and there is no time to inform on the opening day. As soon as the online house selection platform is opened, it is the speed of hand, and the selection is finished in a few seconds.” A salesperson of Feixi poly shiguangnian told reporters that all the customers of the first three Western-style houses were full payment, and some full payment customers did not buy them.
Although the buildings opened in the early stage have been sold out, more than 10 groups of interested customers are still gathered around the sand table, ready to join the subsequent “house grabbing army”. “The next opening is for senior managers. It should be years later, and the competition is expected to be more intense. Now it is in the customer storage period, and there are 60-80 groups of customers every day.” The aforementioned salesperson said< Sales Department of Guangli building
Poly’s location is unique. It is only one way away from Hefei Economic Development Zone, and the supporting business and environment are very mature. It is reported that the average price of the first Western-style house is 18000 yuan / square meter, and an additional decoration package of 1980 yuan needs to be purchased, which is equivalent to about 20000 yuan / square meter, while the hanging price of the second-hand house in shangze metropolis nearby has exceeded 25000 yuan / square meter.
Zhenxing lake, located in the same sector as poly shiguangnian, has been popular since the exhibition hall was opened in early January. The reporter saw at the scene that the real estate exhibition hall is a container plank house structure, without luxurious facade and complex design. “The project needs a capital verification of 1 million in advance. We expect it to open around March, and the price may be about 20000.” A real estate consultant in the exhibition hall told reporters, “60% of the down payment may be a try. The just needed probability is not available.”
(revitalize the temporary exhibition hall in the lake)
It is worth mentioning that some citizens reported to relevant leaders in the People.Cn Co.Ltd(603000) leadership message board that before the opening of the above-mentioned real estate, there were many news on the market, such as tea and water charges, early selection, internal staff subscription and so on, which caused anxiety and dissatisfaction among buyers with actual needs. I hope Feixi County can also publicly select houses with reference to the lottery policy in Hefei city.
According to the government’s reply, some hot spots in Feixi County will not affect the overall pattern of the real estate market in Feixi County, and no policies and systems related to Yaohao house purchase have been formulated and used.
second hand houses begin to “thaw”
If the 4.6 new deal is a “antipyretic” for the new housing market, it is more like a “quick freezing agent” for the second-hand housing market. The academic degree system, restrictions on the purchase of second-hand houses in popular areas and bank loans have weighed on the top of the mountain. Previously, the sectors with active transactions were once dusty, and Hefei’s second-hand real estate market seems to have moved from the peak to the bottom overnight. However, from the transaction data in recent months, the transaction volume of second-hand houses has increased month by month. Although it is still low, it still gives the market some confidence.
“it can’t be described as’ cold ‘a few months ago. It should be said that it is’ frozen’. Now it is slowly thawing, but whether it gets warmer remains to be seen.” Huang Yong (a pseudonym), a senior real estate agent in Baohe District, Hefei, lamented that at present, many intermediaries are struggling to see if there will be improvement after the lunar new year.
According to the second-hand housing market analysis report released by Hefei real estate intermediary Association, Hefei fell month by month after hitting the monthly transaction peak of 15329 units in March 2021, and reached the lowest value of the year in October 2021. Only 2864 units were traded in the same month, with an average monthly decrease of 20%. From November to December, the second-hand housing market in Hefei showed a “tail raising market”, with transaction data of 36 sets and 3900 sets respectively, rising month by month. However, it is difficult to be optimistic about the transaction volume of second-hand housing in the whole fourth quarter, with a year-on-year decline of 60.37% and a month on month decline of 37.38%.
From the market situation, most intermediaries said that in 2022, second-hand housing transactions gradually improved. “Only one order was made in December last year, and five orders have been signed in January.” A real estate agent in the high-tech area of Anhui Zhongshu real estate told reporters that after more than half a year of stalemate, the psychological expectations of customers of both parties have gradually converged, and the transaction cycle is gradually shortening. “Before the customer looked at the house, he might not be able to decide for 1-2 months. Now he can almost decide for half a month.”
It is worth mentioning that behind the expansion of second-hand housing transactions, the relaxation of housing loan policies and quotas may be the main driving force. “The loan is obviously relaxed. I completed the loan pre-trial and real estate transfer process within half a month with a recent transaction.” The aforementioned intermediary told reporters that in the second half of last year, the loan pre-trial had to be pressed for two or three months to come down. The loan still needs to wait for the amount. Some customers’ houses have been set for half a year, and the loan is still hanging in the air.
A mortgage approver in Hefei area of a commercial bank confirmed the above statement to the reporter: “in the second half of last year, we basically didn’t receive orders. Now the business volume in hand is relatively small. The mortgage amount at the beginning of the year is not tight. The current approval speed will be faster than before. Generally, it won’t take more than a month from receiving orders to passing the preliminary review.”
Another real estate agent with rich bank resources in Baohe District told reporters: “maybe the mortgage quota was loose at the beginning of the year, and some banks have begun to take the initiative to find us, so that we can have more customers to send them.”
however, from the flow of people in the offline trading hall, the heat of second-hand houses is still at the bottom.
In Hefei Binhu housing transaction management center, the reporter saw that only a few groups of customers were handling business, and most windows were in an “idle” state, which can be seen from the lack of transactions.
(the window of Hefei Binhu housing transaction management center is “idle”)
school district housing is still bleak
“Although the overall trading volume of second-hand houses has increased, the school district houses are still very cold.” Huang Yong has been engaged in second-hand housing brokerage business for many years, focusing on housing transactions in Tunxi Road Primary School, Qingnian Road Primary School and No. 48 middle school in Baohe district. “Originally, we had four stores, three of which focused on the housing business in the school district. Last year, we had no choice but to close two, but now only two are in operation. The main business is beginning to tilt towards the need for second-hand housing, and we can’t live without transformation.”
In the 4.6 new deal, Hefei has used the “killer mace” for the phenomenon of housing speculation in the school district: the same set of housing can only enjoy one degree in the primary school in the school district within 6 years and one degree in the junior middle school in the school district within 3 years; At the same time, residents with two or more houses in the urban area will be suspended from purchasing second-hand houses within the designated school districts of Binhu, government affairs, high tech and other regions.
“The degree system has sharply reduced the supply of school district housing, and the purchase restriction of school district housing in designated areas has blocked many buyers from the rigid threshold.” Huang Yong told reporters that in the second half of last year, there began to be rumors of teacher rotation and school district scribing, and the gold content of school district houses was gradually challenged. Most people who wanted to buy houses were waiting.
It should be noted that in August last year, Hefei issued the notice on establishing a release mechanism for the guidance price of second-hand housing transactions in hot school districts. Although the guidance price of second-hand school district housing has not been released, it has virtually become the “sword of Damocles” hanging over the school district housing.
The real estate agent in the high-tech area of Zhongshu real estate told reporters that the Tianle sector, where it is located, experienced a wave of jump in second-hand house prices last year because it was assigned to the secondary school district attached to the University of science and technology, and now the price has become loose. “There was a 90 flat house with a price of 2.2 million before, but now it has been reduced to 1.8 million, but even so, there is still little to see. Buying up or not buying down is the general psychology of buyers. The business of school district housing is not easy to do. For the second-hand housing sold in January, the buyers are basically just in need.”
It should be noted that the light market of second-hand school district houses does not seem to affect the subscription heat of new school district houses. Recently, yihejidi, a scarce new building in the Xiyuan School District of No. 50 middle school in Shushan District, opened registration. The building focuses on a small area of apartments with 70 years of property rights, and the number of houses is 218. The reporter saw at the scene that the real estate sales office is mixed with the office area, with an area of only about 20 square meters. The staff said that after starting the registration at 10 a.m. on January 25, yiheji has attracted nearly 400 groups of customers to register online in more than three hours, and Yaohao is an inevitable event
yiheji’s sales department is shared with the office area
Huang Yong told reporters that although the current school district housing transaction volume is very low, there are still many potential customers. Once the policy is loosened or released, there is still no shortage of housing market in Hefei School District. However, due to the long housing age, most of the pure old and dilapidated primary school district houses have been unable to get loans, and the investment risk is high. The second-hand school district houses with both housing age and supporting advantages will be more in short supply.
