In the long run, compared with the world, we believe that China's capital market is full of opportunities. However, many investors are confused about the adjustment at the beginning of 2022. "Opportunities fall out". From experience, whenever investors' enthusiasm for fund subscription drops sharply, the market is probably close to the bottom area.
adjusted to market irrational overreaction at the beginning of the year
This provides more space for the whole year
The market decline at the beginning of 2022 was mainly stimulated by the expected slowdown of global economic growth, the mutation and spread of overseas Omicron virus, the expected interest rate increase in the United States and other news, resulting in an emotional reaction. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the institutional position adjustment and stock exchange and the geographical problems of Russia and Ukraine also disturbed the market sentiment, but the fundamentals of non listed companies deteriorated. Therefore, investors need not be overly pessimistic about the adjustment.
At present, these are short-term disturbances.
First of all, China has realized and taken countermeasures against the potential slowdown of economic growth. From the perspective of institutional investors, China is still very confident in the response policies adopted by the country and the expected results.
Secondly, although the variation of overseas Omicron virus is highly infectious, the damage to human body is far less severe than Delta, and the severe rate and mortality are low. Superimposed on China, China has accumulated rich experience in epidemic prevention and control since 2020. It is believed that China can respond effectively. It is expected that the economic impact of the virus mutation is relatively limited.
Thirdly, the Central Bank of China will certainly have a good response to the current round of us table contraction and interest rate increase cycle. In the long run, China's central bank and monetary policy are relatively independent on the whole, and are rarely affected by the monetary policies of the central banks of other countries. In the process of the last round of us table contraction, Japan and Europe took hedging measures to expand the table, maintained abundant global liquidity and achieved good results in stabilizing economic growth. It is expected that other major economies may implement effective hedging measures to maintain global liquidity during the US contraction, and the Central Bank of China may also consider these external factors.
The correction at the beginning of 2022 also provides greater investment opportunities for the interpretation of A-Shares in the year of the tiger.
new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and other sectors
high scenery is expected to run through 2022
In terms of investment opportunities, both new infrastructure and old infrastructure deserve attention.
Specifically, under the background of carbon neutralization and carbon peak, the high business cycle of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic in the new energy industry chain is expected to run through 2022. New power systems, power grid transformation, green energy and other fields in line with the general direction of "double carbon" also have opportunities.
Take new energy vehicles as an example. At present, it still belongs to the industry supported by the policies of China, the United States and Europe. The build back better act proposed by the United States at the end of 2021 will enjoy a subsidy of more than 12500 US dollars for electric vehicles sold in the United States. If the bill is finally passed, the American electric vehicle market will usher in greater development.
For the valuation of the electric vehicle sector that the market is worried about, I think the high prosperity of the industry may drive the sustained and high growth of the company's performance. In the medium and long term, there are still good layout opportunities for some stocks in the above industries. In addition, due to the recent market correction, the valuation of some new energy companies, such as electric vehicle batteries and lithium battery equipment, has been at a reasonable level.
The investment logic in the field of traditional infrastructure lies in two aspects: first, with the implementation of policies such as stable employment and steady growth, traditional infrastructure may become one of the more important carriers. Generally speaking, infrastructure construction plays a greater role in promoting employment. Second, at present, the issuance pace of special bonds is relatively fast, and the fiscal policy is active; The recent interest rate and reserve requirement cuts in monetary policy have also provided a better macro environment for infrastructure construction.
the rate of return of underrated blue chips this year is expected to be higher
In 2022, the excess return of undervalued and performance supported blue chips may be higher than that of small and medium market capitalization stocks.
On the one hand, in 2022, the growth rate of performance of small and medium market capitalization stocks may slow down more than that of large market capitalization stocks. This means that the investment return of large market value stocks is expected to be stronger than that of small market value stocks.
On the other hand, the current valuation level of the whole A-share market and the valuation of constituent stocks such as CSI 300 and SSE 50 are generally at a relatively reasonable level, which provides better investment opportunities for investors in the A-share market.
In addition, there are opportunities in TMT and consumer areas. With the sporadic epidemic effectively controlled, consumer demand will further increase; In addition, from the statistical data, the overall disposable income of residents still has a certain growth, which is also expected to stimulate further consumption.
Finally, thank you again for the invitation of red weekly. I am also a loyal reader of red weekly. As a witness and recorder of China's capital market, the content of red weekly is professional and pragmatic, which can timely capture the topics concerned by investors and make forward-looking analysis. I hope red weekly will become better and better and continue to maintain its position as an excellent financial media! I also wish investors more bull stocks in the year of the tiger, long-term success and happy Spring Festival!
