Since the outbreak, the aviation industry has suffered a lot. From 2012 to 2019, the passenger throughput of China’s civil aviation airports increased steadily. The sudden epidemic in 2020 caused the passenger throughput to drop 36.6% compared with 2019. However, with the popularization of epidemic prevention measures and the recovery of life and production, civil aviation will gradually recover in 2021.
According to the data, in 2021, 248 airports in China completed 907 million passenger throughput, an increase of 5.9% over 2020 and restored to 67.1% in 2019.
The top ten passenger throughput are Guangzhou Baiyun, Chengdu Shuangliu, Shenzhen Bao’an, Chongqing Jiangbei, Shanghai Hongqiao, Beijing capital, Kunming Changshui, Shanghai Pudong, Xi’an Xianyang and Hangzhou Xiaoshan. Among them, the passenger throughput of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) with the fastest recovery and the largest passenger flow after the global epidemic ranked first in China, down 8% compared with 2020 and 45% compared with 2019.
However, from the perspective of city dimension, Shanghai, Beijing and Chengdu, which have dual international airports, can be “opened and linked”. The passenger throughput of “magic capital” and “imperial capital” exceeds 60 million and 50 million respectively. The passenger throughput of Chengdu and Guangzhou is in the order of 40 million, and that of Shenzhen, Chongqing, Kunming and Xi’an is in the order of 30 million.
Tip: Shanghai’s navigable airports include Shanghai Pudong and Shanghai Hongqiao; Beijing’s navigable airports include Beijing capital, Beijing Nanyuan (from October 25, 2005 to September 25, 2019) and Beijing Daxing (from September 25, 2019); Chengdu’s navigable airports include Chengdu Shuangliu and Chengdu Tianfu (from June 27, 2021).
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) it is expected that the compound annual growth rate of the fleet size in the 14th five year plan will slow down to 5-6%, significantly lower than the double-digit growth rate in the past two decades. The pressure of increasing investment in the third and fourth lines is weakened, and the superposition of ticket price marketization will accelerate the rise of trunk ticket prices, eliminate the impact of the epidemic, the inflection point of long-term rise of ticket prices can be expected, and the rise of airline company profit margin and roe will exceed market expectations. The long-term prospect of the aviation industry is optimistic, and the medium-term recovery is determined. It is suggested to pay attention to the reverse timing.
