In the market adjustment, everyone eats according to their abilities.
“Now the battery grade lithium carbonate is 430000 yuan / ton. But it’s useless if you want to buy it now, and we can’t deliver it. We’ll talk about it in a year.” On January 27, an upstream material supplier in Shanghai told times finance.
In 2022, lithium carbonate is rising wildly. According to the data of business agency, on January 1, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 282000 yuan / ton, and that of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 266000 yuan / ton. As of the 27th of this month, the comprehensive price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 350000-383000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 360000-41000 yuan / ton. In other words, the increase was at least 31.6% and 27.7% respectively.
“Not to mention more than 200000, even more than 300000, we can’t even buy industrial grade lithium carbonate now.” Said the above material supplier. In view of the crazy rise in the price of lithium carbonate, some investors put forward suggestions to Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) on the interactive platform, saying that “the price of lithium carbonate is rising fiercely this year, and it is often up to 5000 yuan / ton a day. It is inappropriate for the company to adopt the 15 day average price, which seriously damages the interests of the company. It is suggested to change it to current price sales”.
Benefiting from the high prosperity of the new energy industry, Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) disclosed the performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company will be 110-165 million yuan in 2021, with a loss of 48.5167 million yuan in the same period of last year; Deduct non net profit of 85 million yuan – 127.5 million yuan. In the announcement, the company said that in 2021, the company firmly grasped the rising trend of lithium salt market, increased the sales of products (lithium salt products and chromite), and the sales gross profit increased significantly.
For the price trend of lithium salt materials such as lithium carbonate after the year, lithium carbonate analysts of business society also believe that the output of lithium carbonate fell for several weeks in January, and the gap between supply and demand is still widening. The demand for cathode material production scheduling remains high, and the upstream shipment is still tight. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may rise strongly after the year.
The aforementioned material supplier also said that “the price of lithium carbonate will certainly be higher in years, and we are not in a hurry to sell it”.
crazy lithium carbonate
“At the end of the year, we are basically making tentative offers, because even if the offer is made, few people make inquiries. 430000 / ton sounds exaggerated, but it’s actually OK. You know, by the end of 2020, a ton of lithium carbonate will be about 40000 yuan.” On January 27, Li Zhen (a pseudonym), a material supplier in Jiangxi, revealed to times finance that they currently offered 410000 yuan / ton, but no inquiry was made.
Although no one cares, Li Zhen is not worried. In his opinion, the mismatch between supply and demand in the lithium carbonate market is very obvious, and it is inevitable that the price will continue to rise. Although it will not necessarily exceed 500000 yuan / ton as expected by securities companies, there is no doubt that the price will continue to rise after years.
However, Li Zhen revealed that in this wave of market, although the scale of the company has expanded several times, it has earned far less than the outside world imagined.
“In 2019 and 2020, the price of lithium carbonate is not so exaggerated, and our annual profit has more than a dozen points. Although the price is almost 10 times that of the past, our profit margin is almost the same as that of the past.”. Li Zhen said, “the price of upstream ore has risen too much, and the cost is also rising. In the past, lithium mica was only 1000 yuan a ton, but now it costs more than 5000 or 6000”.
Wang Feng (a pseudonym), a material supplier in Beijing, has a similar experience with Li Zhen. He revealed to times finance that his company performed fairly well in the market. The revenue in 2021 increased by 10% compared with that in 2020, but the profit of the company was severely squeezed by the cost.
“The midstream enterprises in our relatively small industrial chain suffer losses because they have no way to control the upstream ore and can only passively accept the price rise. Moreover, customers are more sensitive to the price, so they need to bear some of the costs themselves and have no way to transmit them to the downstream.” Wang Feng said to times finance.
“Although the ore price soared, the good thing is that as long as there is a need, the head mining chamber of Commerce will supply in time, and there is no situation of pressing goods and hoarding goods.”. Wang Feng said. Li Zhenze revealed to times finance that because his company is located in Jiangxi, in the same circle, everyone looks up and looks down. There are few malicious price increases, and there have been no problems in supply.
It is worth mentioning that the ecology of the new energy industry chain has been put to the test under the tide of several rounds of lithium material price increases. A person in the new energy industry said, “in 2022, the focus of the industry should be on how to develop the industrial chain sustainably and healthily. If the upstream price rises so much and the downstream eats up and down, what is the development?”
differentiation in the development of industrial chain enterprises
“In fact, we expected that the price of lithium carbonate might be about 180000 yuan / ton, which is also the highest price in history. However, after stabilizing for some time last year, the price of materials suddenly rose to 220000 yuan / ton, and then it got out of control.”. For the soaring price of lithium salts such as lithium carbonate, Li Zhen revealed that in addition to the impact of market supply and demand, upstream miners see the potential to raise the price of ore, leading to higher material costs.
An insider of a Chinese head miner recently told times finance, “Our industry is cyclical. In the past 18 and 19 years, the development of the industry fell into a trough, which also led to a large number of bankruptcy of many overseas miners. In addition, due to the repeated outbreak of the epidemic, the miners’ response could not keep up with the changes in the downstream and the output could not meet the demand, which led to the rising prices of ores and materials. In fact, we also hope to stabilize in a price range acceptable to everyone to ensure the stability of the industry Good and stable development “.
In an interview with the media, Qu Yinfei, a lithium analyst at the new energy business department, said that there was a strong demand for terminal new energy vehicles, the penetration rate increased rapidly, and there were frequent new projects of cathode materials; The demand for lithium hydroxide at home and abroad is expected to grow well, and affected by the rising price of lithium carbonate, the market will continue to follow up in order to repair the price difference.
“Unlike our small enterprises in the industrial chain, even if the prices of ores and materials continue to rise, those manufacturers with mineral resources will have a good time.” Wang Feng said.
Recently, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) successively released the annual performance forecast for 2021. Among them, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 will be 4.8 billion yuan to 5.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 368.45% to 436.76%. It is estimated that the annual net profit after deduction of non-profit will be 2.9 billion yuan to 3.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 621% to 795.04%. Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) the company expects to achieve a net profit of 1.8 billion yuan to 2.4 billion yuan attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021, which is much higher than the market expectation.
Under the market, there are obvious performance differentiation between large and small enterprises and upstream and downstream enterprises, but Wang Feng has a good mentality. He believes that in the market, everyone eats according to their abilities. It is their ability that the head miners and enterprises can achieve better performance in the market.
Although our company is under pressure in the short term, we believe that we can impress customers through better products and services, so as to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises.
Due to their small scale, Wang Feng’s enterprises rarely have insufficient upstream ore supply. However, power battery manufacturers who are constantly expanding production and expansion need to ensure a relatively stable supply of raw materials in a dynamic market, otherwise it will be impossible to expand production and scale.
Take Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) as an example, recently Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) announced that it plans to establish a joint venture with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) with a total investment of no more than 2.5 billion yuan, and plans to build a production capacity project with an annual output of 50000 tons of lithium carbonate. Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) announced that it plans to establish a joint venture with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to build a 100000 ton lithium carbonate smelting capacity project.
In addition, in order to alleviate the pressure caused by frequent price increases in the upstream, not only lithium salt manufacturers, including power battery manufacturers and downstream main engine manufacturers also announced price increases. Insiders said that compared with the impact of the decline of subsidies on enterprises, the main cost pressure of automobile enterprises at present comes from the rise in the price of raw materials.
According to the financial report of China Central Television, due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials, many car companies have begun to announce price increases. On January 21, Byd Company Limited(002594) announced that the official guidance price of new energy models will be adjusted by 1000-7000 yuan. Before Byd Company Limited(002594) , several car companies announced price increases. In January this year, Nezha raised the price of its models by 2000 yuan to 5000 yuan. On January 11, Xiaopeng’s official website showed that the price of all models of Xiaopeng increased by about 4300-5900 yuan after the subsidy.
