Coal prices continued to run at a high level, and the contradiction between coal and electricity intensified. On the 28th, “major thermal power enterprises” Henan Yuneng Holdings Co.Ltd(001896) (001896, SZ) released a performance forecast. The company expects to turn profit into loss in 2021, with a net profit loss attributable to the parent company of 1.85 billion-2.1 billion yuan. A number of power generation enterprises issued performance forecasts, and most of them also fell into losses.
As for the reasons for the loss, the company said in the announcement that due to the continuous sharp rise in coal prices, the cost of power generation fuel of the company increased by about 3.2 billion yuan year-on-year (after restructuring), and the income and cost were upside down, resulting in large-scale losses of thermal power enterprises, and the gross profit and net profit of the company decreased significantly year-on-year.
Hou Zhihua, deputy general manager of think tank, told the financial associated press today that the port coal price is about 840 yuan / ton, which is the breakeven line of power generation enterprises. According to the current coal price, most power generation enterprises are still losing money.
Mysteel analysis report pointed out that on the 28th, the overall price of thermal coal in the producing area was temporarily stable, including 830 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) q5500, 970 yuan / ton in Yulin q6200 and 930 yuan / ton in Datong q5500. The supply of high-quality low sulfur coal in the port is scarce. The closing price of q5500 in Qinhuangdao is 1160 yuan / ton, and the closing price of q5000 is 1060 yuan / ton.
In 2021, the supply and demand of coal was tight, the contradiction between coal and electricity intensified, and most power generation enterprises fell into a state of loss. Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) (600021, SH) is expected to lose 1.785 billion to 1.985 billion yuan, Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co.Ltd(600023) (600023. SH) is expected to lose 760 million to 1.14 billion yuan, Jiangxi Ganneng Co.Ltd(000899) (000899, SZ) is expected to lose 208 million to 311 million yuan. Correspondingly, the performance of most coal enterprises increased, among which the annual net profit attributable to the parent company of Qinghai Jinrui Mineral Development Co.Ltd(600714) (600714, SH) increased by 19.67 times year-on-year, Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) (601015, SH) increased by 6.72 to 7.24 times year-on-year, Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) (601001, SH), Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) (600546, SH) increased by more than 4 times year-on-year.
However, after the Spring Festival, the social power demand has entered the traditional off-season. It is expected that the contradiction between coal supply and demand is expected to be alleviated in 2022. Hou Zhihua said in an interview with the Associated Press: “Now the coal output is high, and many coal enterprises work overtime to ensure supply during the Spring Festival. The problem of output supply is not big. The short-term demand has increased, mainly due to the recent increase in rainy and snowy weather in the north and large power consumption. In addition, the Winter Olympic countries require the power plant inventory to be increased to 30 days. After this period, especially after the Winter Olympic Games, the power coal is expected to enter the downward stage.”
It is worth mentioning that traditional power generation enterprises are making efforts in the field of new energy. Previously Henan Yuneng Holdings Co.Ltd(001896) replied on the investment platform: “the company will accelerate the transformation and development of green and low-carbon energy; on the one hand, the company will actively carry out the flexible transformation of thermal power, reasonably allocate energy storage, heat storage and other facilities, and actively transform and develop to the integration of wind, solar and fire (storage); on the other hand, it will strengthen the development and construction of new energy such as wind power, photovoltaic and pumped storage, and speed up the adjustment of asset structure.”
