Seeing that the year of the ox, which is full of challenges for the majority of investors, is about to pass, but recently the A-share market has been badly hurt by the "tail of the year of the ox", and the cross-year "red envelope" market originally expected by many institutions has also failed.
In the past few years, as beneficiaries of the structural market, fund heavy warehouse stocks and popular track stocks have become the object of short sellers to vent their emotions in this round of decline, which makes it difficult for investors and funders to hide their losses on the eve of the Spring Festival.
Due to the unfavorable start of A-Shares and the turmoil of peripheral markets, the market's cautious mood towards 2022 began to rise. "How to avoid risks" and "controlling positions" seem to replace "how to outperform the index" and become the main direction of investors' attention at present.
In fact, in recent years, although the K-line of the index year has been positive for three consecutive years since 2019, the differentiation is very obvious, and all kinds of risks still exist independently of the general trend. Therefore, no matter what kind of market environment, risk awareness can not be lost. So, looking forward to the upcoming year of the tiger, what are the potential risks that deserve more attention? You have to read this "pit avoidance guide".
at present, fund companies have set off a wave of self purchase, and a number of public funds have announced self purchase, with a total self purchase amount of more than 1.5 billion yuan. When will there be a turnaround for the stock market in the year of the tiger? Should we avoid the fund's heavy position stocks and popular track stocks? If the US stock market bears in 2022, what will be the impact on a shares? What are the main investment lines of the year of the tiger market?
popular track stocks accelerated to collapse at the end of the year of the ox
allocation of public funds to various industries in the fourth quarter of last year
increase and decrease of public funds in various industries in the fourth quarter of last year
as of the fourth quarter of last year, the quantile of the over allocation ratio of public funds to various industries since 2009
The above picture is from: Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) strategy team
Recently, the 2021 four seasons reports of public funds have been released one after another. According to the statistics of Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) strategy team, the allocation of funds to the main board rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2021; The proportion of gem and Sci-tech Innovation Board increased slightly and remained stable; The proportion of Hong Kong stocks decreased significantly. The industry sectors with increased holdings include electronics, electrical equipment, automobile, military industry, food and beverage, building materials, etc., and the industry sectors with reduced holdings include medicine, chemical industry, leisure services, mining, nonferrous metals, etc.
Although some public funds may have avoided the recent decline of medicine to a certain extent, popular tracks such as electronics, electrical equipment and military industry have also made significant adjustments this year.
In fact, since the fourth quarter of last year, many institutional conglomerates have experienced continuous correction. It is worth noting that in the recent "oxtail" market, the fund heavy position stocks and popular track stocks that have gradually weakened since the second half of last year began to collapse at an accelerated pace.
According to the statistics of choice, as of the end of last year, among the top 100 A shares held by the fund, there was still a high proportion of institutional group shares in the past few years. These conglomerated stocks happen to be the main short targets in the near future, and some star fund managers are likely to step on thunder.
For example, according to the fund's four seasons report, the growth of Fuguo Tianhui managed by Zhu Shaoxing of Fuguo fund is mixed. There are three new faces in the top ten heavy positions of the four seasons report in 2021, Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) is one of them, and the stock has been greatly adjusted recently. According to the statistics of choice, as of the end of the fourth quarter of last year, there were still as many as 174 public funds holding Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) .
In addition, some pharmaceutical stocks with heavy positions in the fourth quarter of last year, such as Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , have experienced a sharp correction since the fourth quarter of last year.
According to the statistics of choice, as of the end of last year, the average decline of the top 100 A shares in the fund's shareholding ratio since December last year (January 27) is 13.4%, which is 9 percentage points lower than that of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. Among the 100 fund heavyweight stocks, 38 stocks have fallen by more than 20% since December last year, including "star stocks" in the market in recent years such as Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) .
The track stocks with unlimited scenery in the past have also become the object of selling in this cross year market. According to the statistics of choice, since December last year (January 27), among the shenwanyi industries, the industries with the largest decline are defense and military industry, power equipment (new energy), non-ferrous metals, beauty care, automobile, medicine and biology and other previous popular tracks.
On the other hand, most of the stocks and industries with the highest growth this year were less concerned by institutions before. In terms of industry, as of the closing on January 27, the top 5 industries in shenwanyi industry were banking, coal, real estate, building decoration and transportation. Although the fund increased its positions slightly in some industries in the fourth quarter of last year, on the whole, these five industries are still in the state of low allocation of funds, and the low allocation of funds to the banking sector ranks first in all industries.
After the continuous decline after the beginning of the year, from the current point of view, the spring restless market with high frequency in the past 10 years is unlikely to appear this year.
In this regard, Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) chief strategic analyst Yi Bin said in an interview with the daily economic news a few days ago, "First of all, in our research framework, there would have been no 'Spring Festival agitation' this year " This is also an important difference between our view and the consensus expectation of the market. Historically, there has been a round of restless spring market for A-Shares every year since 2009, and the core logic of promoting the market comes from three aspects. The credit impulse at the beginning of the year promotes the abundant macro liquidity of the market, the profit expectation switching brought about by the macro data vacuum period from January to February, and the expectation of monetary and fiscal policies in the new year leads to the improvement of market risk appetite. Affected by the base effect brought by the epidemic in 2020, the economic and policy rhythm of 2021 has changed significantly. Specifically, after the credit currency Symposium in August 2021, the pace of credit supply accelerated. By October, the emergence of the credit inflection point superimposed the front force of monetary and fiscal policies at the end of the year, which was earlier than the landing of RRR reduction and the front rhythm of local bond issuance in previous years, And the market's attention to the data vacuum period shifted from macro data to the financial data of listed companies (from November to December, after the release of the third quarterly report and before the release of the annual report), led to the restless market that should have occurred around the Spring Festival this year to in the fourth quarter of last year. With the fulfillment of various policies in December 2021, the short-term market action has further slowed down. Superimposed on the fact that listed companies have entered the performance disclosure period since the beginning of this year, the market continues the "calm period" after agitation.
Even after the implementation of monetary policy, the market also reflects more concerns, and some investors turn pessimistic about the future market. "
should we avoid the heavy positions of the fund?
While the market continues to decline, the issuance of public funds has also fallen into a downturn since the beginning of the year. According to the statistics of Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) metalworking team, the fund issuance market has been relatively cold since 2022. As of January 23 this year, 93 public funds had been issued, with a total issuance share of 76 billion. The total issuance share of in January 2021 exceeded 490 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 84% . The largest fund raised this year is Xingzheng global Heheng, which has been held for three years, with a raising scale of 5.984 billion yuan. In January 2021, a total of 10 funds raised a scale of more than 10 billion yuan.
Recently, there is a view in the market that, on the one hand, with the adjustment of the market, the pressure of fund redemption increases, and on the other hand, the incremental funds may be weak. At present, investors should avoid the heavy position stocks of funds that have increased significantly in previous years.
"Since the beginning of the year, the market style has begun to change greatly, especially in some popular tracks. Some investors attribute it to the heavy position of the fund. We think this view is not objective enough." In this regard, Yi Bin explained to reporters, "Since 2019, the boom investment focusing on high profit growth expectation has achieved obvious excess returns. The impact of the epidemic in 2020 has passively accelerated the switching rhythm of market profit expectation. By July 2021, the profit expectation reflected by the market has been switched to 2022, and the market performance in November 2021 has reflected that some forward-looking investors have begun to set more long-term profit expectations Price. According to the A-share profit forecast since the data is available, the hit rate of the industry profit in the next two years predicted by the growth and cycle industry is less than 20%. Too fast profit expectation switching will also bring more risks to boom investment. In other words, it is not that the performance growth of these high growth sectors has slowed down and the company is no longer able to do so, but that the market gives these companies too high expectations, which will easily fall short of expectations. "
"With the recent revision of market expectations for the growth track, hot sectors such as new energy vehicles, wind power and photovoltaic have returned to a relatively reasonable level of valuation. We believe that they still have long-term investment value. Specifically, We should treat the so-called fund heavy positions differently. If there is indeed performance support, the real growth that can match the valuation and profit is still worthy of investors' continuous attention. If the performance is less than expected, investors need to avoid it. "he further pointed out.
In fact, since the fourth quarter of last year, the characteristics of holding positions of public funds have weakened. According to the observation of the quantitative team of Guosheng securities, in the fourth quarter of 2021, active equity funds mainly increased their holdings of consumer electronics and reduced their holdings of medical services, new energy and other sectors. The group characteristics were significantly weakened, the style was more defensive, and the position of Hong Kong stocks decreased significantly.
if the US stock market bears in 2022, what will be the impact on a shares?
Although the correlation between A-Shares and U.S. stocks is not high in recent years, many investors are worried that since 2022, the U.S. stock market, which has hit new highs for many years, has also shown signs of weakness.
As of January 27, the three major indexes of US stocks have fallen this year. Specifically, the main tracks of information technology, biotechnology, non essential consumption, finance and industry in US stocks fell; In addition, the defense industry represented by essential consumption and public utilities has also been adjusted to a certain extent. It is worth mentioning that some long-term bull stocks in US stocks have also experienced rare sharp declines due to some fundamental fluctuations. For example, on January 21, Naifei, the leader of US stock media, fell more than 20% in a single day.
In this regard, the West China overseas strategy team believes that considering the tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the valuation of US stocks is still high. It is expected that the US stock market has not stabilized, and there will still be fluctuations in the US stock market.
Yi Bin admitted, "It is a difficult situation for US stocks. On the one hand, we still have hawkish expectations for the Fed's monetary policy. On the other hand, the US economic data has begun to decline with the naked eye, which is also the reason for the continued weakness of US stocks in the near future. If the Fed has more flexible guidance on monetary policy in the future, US stocks will continue to decline The trend may not be as pessimistic as the market is worried. "
\u3000\u3000 "On Tuesday, January 18, the manufacturing index of the Federal Reserve of New York in January fell sharply to - 0.7 from 31.9 in December last year, with an expected value of 25. The index fell to the negative region for the first time since June 2020. According to the data released by the U.S. Department of labor on January 20, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week to January 15 recorded 286000, the highest since October last year, far exceeding the market expectation of 225000, up from the previous year The value was 230000, an increase of 56000 people. From the performance of overseas markets in that week, the yield of 10-year US bonds fell from the high of 1.88% on January 18 to 1.76% on Friday. Although US stocks are still weak, their focus has gradually shifted from the panic about liquidity tightening to the head. The operating data of technology companies are less than expected. " He analyzed and pointed out.
So, if the 13-year bull market before the end of US stocks in 2022 really ends, what will be the impact on a shares?
In this regard, Yi Bin told reporters that if U.S. stocks weaken in the future, they still need to be treated differently according to their reasons. if the weakening of US stocks is caused by the continuous tightening of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, it is more from the contraction of valuation than fundamentals. The impact on the A-share market will mainly come from the infection of the rising volatility of risky assets in the global financial market, which will lead to the rise of market sentiment impact, and the short-term pressure on the growth sector with higher valuation will be greater. After the short-term overshoot, investors will re-examine the fundamentals of A-Shares and China's monetary policy. In the medium term, China's economy still maintains a high growth rate, monetary policy is relatively loose, and the A-share market is expected to become a safe haven for global funds.
if the subsequent weakness of US stocks comes from the sharp weakness of the US economy, we think it will have a greater impact on the A-share market. considering that the United States is still the world's largest consumer, if the U.S. economy suffers a sharp recession, the impact on China's exports and manufacturing industry will be more severe and sustained than the emotional disturbance. For a shares, more impact will come from the decline of profits, including the traditional manufacturing industry and consumer sectors, This is also a relatively unfavorable situation.
Of course, no matter what happens, considering the current differentiation of monetary policies between China and the United States and the difference between the valuation levels of A-Shares and U.S. stocks, the impact on the A-share market will be smaller than that of U.S. stocks, which is certain.
be careful of these "pits" of A-Shares in 2022
After this round of withdrawal at the beginning of the year, what "pits" need investors to beware of in 2022?
\u3000\u3000 A
performance thunder
According to the latest financial disclosure rules, before January 31 this year, all A-share listed companies must disclose the performance forecast of 2021 if they touch the relevant conditions.
The relevant conditions here include: 1. The net profit is negative; 2. Net profit increased or decreased by more than 50% year-on-year; 3. Turning losses into profits; 4. After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the net profit is negative or the main business income is less than 100 million yuan.
As of the end of January this year, as listed companies have issued performance forecasts for 2021 as required, many performance mines in the A-share market have been detonated.
Those listed companies that have not released the performance forecast for 2021 may also hide some hidden performance mines. According to the financial disclosure rules, if the annual net profit of a listed company increases by more than 50% year-on-year, it is necessary to issue a performance forecast.
According to the statistics of choice, as of January 27, 709 A-share companies with a year-on-year increase in net profit of more than 50% in the first three quarters of last year have not released the performance forecast of 2021. if the 2021 performance forecast is still not announced by the end of January this year, the year-on-year growth rate of these companies' 2021 performance may be less than 50%, and there are often some performance mines that have not yet been detonated.
\u3000\u3000 B
risk of lifting the ban
According to the statistics of choice, the market value of A-Shares lifted in 2022 reached 5.14 trillion yuan, and the number of companies lifted was 2515, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.1% and 24.4% respectively. From the distribution of the market value of the lifting of the ban every month this year, the lifting scale of the ban from January to November is relatively average, and the largest lifting peak of the year will appear in December.
for specific individual shares, nearly 600 A shares accounted for no less than 20% of the total share capital in 2022, of which 157 A shares accounted for no less than 50% of the total share capital.
Among the 157 companies, the companies that will face a large proportion of lifting the ban from February to April this year include Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , Offcn Education Technology Co.Ltd(002607) , Careray Digital Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688607) , Nanjing Well Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603351) , Changhong energy, Shanghai Taihe Water Environmental Technology Development Co.Ltd(605081) , Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Deyuan pharmaceutical, Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Wpg (Shanghai) Smart Water Public Co.Ltd(603956) , Sichuan Jinshi Technology Co.Ltd(002951) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Cspc Innovation Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300765) , Ningbo Sunrise Elc Technology Co.Ltd(002937) , Shanghai Yongguan Adhesive Products Corp.Ltd(603681) , Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(603379) , Chemclin Diagnostics Co.Ltd(688468) , Hangzhou Dptech Technologies Co.Ltd(300768) , Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) , Lakala Payment Co.Ltd(300773) China Master Logistics Co.Ltd(603967) etc. Investors may wish to pay attention to the risks that may occur when these companies face huge lifting of the ban.
\u3000\u3000 C
delisting risk
According to statistics, in the past 2021, a total of 20 A shares in the whole market were forcibly delisted, reaching a record high.
The new delisting regulations that have been implemented have cancelled the suspension and resumption of listing, and made it clear that listed companies can delist if they touch the financial delisting indicators for two consecutive years, and such regulations undoubtedly shorten the delisting process. It can be predicted that from this year, the efficiency of A-share financial delisting will be greatly improved.
according to the disclosed 2021 performance forecast, a number of * ST companies that have touched the financial delisting indicators for two consecutive years have surfaced, including Egls Co.Ltd(002619) , Huaxun Fangzhou Co.Ltd(000687) , Xinjiang La Chapelle Fashion Co.Ltd(603157) , Baotou Tomorrow Technology Co.Ltd(600091) , Tempus Global Business Service Group Holding Ltd(300178) , Great Wall International Acg Co.Ltd(000835) , Chunghsin Technology Group Co.Ltd(603996) . These companies are likely to face direct delisting after the official release of the 2021 annual report.
On January 18 this year, the reporter of the daily economic news exclusively reported that he would see the first "quasi delisting company" Chunghsin Technology Group Co.Ltd(603996) after the implementation of the new delisting regulations. Since the release of the report, Chunghsin Technology Group Co.Ltd(603996) has walked out of the four word limit in a row. Therefore, investors should avoid such risks.
when will the turnaround in the year of the tiger market occur?
Although with the failure of the cross year market, many institutions in the market are relatively cautious about the market of the year of the tiger, from the performance of the A-share market in the last 10 years, there are periodic or local markets in all years except 2018.
If this law can continue in 2022, when may the turnaround of the year of the tiger market occur?
According to Yi Bin's observation, the sentiment of the A-share market has been at a low level in recent years, " judging from the A-share market sentiment index we tracked, the current market sentiment has been at the low level since 2020, below the historical 20% quantile. since 2020, the market sentiment index has reached this low level only from March to April, the end of September, the middle of December, and April and October 2021, which are the periodic lows of the market at that time."
" for the turning point of the market, we think it is the moment. Different from the so-called 'rebound window' of the market, we think the market can be more optimistic for the whole first half of the year. The current market environment is actually very similar to that before last year's national day. At that time, the market was faced with the situation that the external Federal Reserve would start taper and the internal quantitative transaction supervision standardization superimposed the seasonal transaction contraction before the festival. The market also had an irrational adjustment at the end of September. With the natural recovery of trading volume after the National Day holiday and the rise of loose expectations, although the market experienced some twists and turns in October, it also gave birth to the opportunity of "winter agitation" in the fourth quarter. At present, as the pre holiday market contraction is coming to an end and the monetary policy window period in February is approaching again, we believe that holding shares for the holiday is still the best choice at present. We suggest investors to actively layout the market in the first half of the year. " Yi Bin said.
In his opinion, "Compared with last year's national day, the policy certainty after the Spring Festival is higher, and the market in the first half of the year is still worth looking forward to. In October last year, the RRR was finally officially implemented in December due to concerns about higher than expected inflation and real estate. From the current situation, the probability of social finance in January is lower than that in the same period last year, which also means that the certainty of RRR reduction in February is higher than that in October last year. From the recent market situation Now, the market's feedback on quantitative easing is obviously better than that of price tools, which also means that the effect of RRR reduction on market stimulation will be better than "interest rate reduction". from the perspective of seasonal factors, from 2012 to 2021, the average rise and fall of Shanghai stock index in the 20 trading days after the Spring Festival was 2.48%, and the rise probability was 70% . The average daily trading volume and turnover rate of the market after the Spring Festival also increased significantly compared with that before the festival. "
Although the market had a bad start in 2022, the northward capital still continued to flow into A-Shares this year. Catherine Yeung, director of Fidelity International Investment, said on January 27 that looking forward to the year of the tiger, there is more room for monetary policy relaxation, although the peak may have passed, and the valuation of the Chinese market is attractive. These three positive factors will support the Chinese market to usher in the year of the tiger.
According to Catherine Yeung, "market volatility always exists, but it often provides attractive opportunities. We expect corporate earnings growth in the Chinese market to exceed 15% in the next 12 months. The current P / E ratio of the Chinese market is attractive both relative to its historical average and compared with other global markets."
the main line of the year of the tiger market is becoming clear: pay attention to the expectation of "dilemma reversal" of relevant industries after the epidemic
Since 2020, covid-19 epidemic has always been a major variable in the global economy and stock market. The world is expected to enter a post epidemic era in 2022. For example, according to media reports, the peak of the epidemic caused by Omicron variant virus is approaching, and the new covid-19 cases in the United States are beginning to decline; The who announced on January 20 that the Omicron epidemic was coming to an end in South Africa, where the variant was first reported.
If the epidemic can really be controlled in 2022, what will be the main investment lines of economic recovery in the post epidemic era?
The quantitative team of Guosheng securities recently released a report that, on the whole, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the view of value funds was biased towards the reverse and left layout, paying more attention to the industries that were greatly affected by the epidemic and policies in the past, and taking a wait-and-see attitude towards the industries with high prosperity and crowded transactions in the past; From the perspective of growth funds, they pay more attention to the long-term deterministic opportunities of new energy. At the same time, like value fund managers, they are more optimistic about the reversal of biased and relatively pessimistic industries in the past.
Specifically, from the position changes of public funds in the fourth quarter of last year, aviation, airports, pig breeding, media and other industries that are expected to usher in "dilemma reversal" have been "latent" of the fund.
According to the statistics of Shen Wanhong's transportation team, aviation, airport, express and other industries received an increase in public funds in the fourth quarter of last year. For example, in the fourth quarter of last year, public funds increased holdings of companies greatly affected by the epidemic, such as Air China Limited(601111) , China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) .
Screenshot from: GF value leads the four seasons report in 2021
Some funds have tasted the sweetness this year by lurking the epidemic damaged sectors such as aviation in advance. According to the 2021 fourth quarter report recently released by GF value leader, a fund managed by fund manager Lin Yingrui, as of the fourth quarter of last year, the fund had a heavy position in a number of aviation stocks.
For its own investment strategy, Lin Yingrui said in the four seasons, "in the direction of undervaluation, we choose subdivided industries with better growth rate in the next two or three years. These industries basically show the characteristics of dilemma reversal."
In the view of some institutions, the breeding industry is expected to reverse the plight this year. Affected by the continuous adjustment of pig prices, some pig breeding enterprises experienced a significant decline in performance last year. For example, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) is expected to lose 13 billion to 13.8 billion last year.
However, some pig breeding enterprises whose performance fell sharply last year were increased by the fund against the trend in the fourth quarter of last year. According to the statistics of Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) agricultural team, the allocation proportion of the fund to the agricultural sector increased for two consecutive quarters in the fourth quarter of 2021, but it was still at a low allocation.
In addition, according to the statistics of Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) agricultural team, the month on month growth of the market value of Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) held by public funds in the fourth quarter of last year was 7.4%, 430%, 110.7% and 2804% respectively.
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) the agricultural team recently released a report that the pig price has continued to decline since early December 2021. At present, it has fallen below the industry cost line, and the pig price is not prosperous in the peak season. In the consumption off-season after the Spring Festival, the pig price is expected to have greater downward pressure. Major pig breeding enterprises have suffered losses for 2 to 3 consecutive quarters, and the duration of losses has exceeded the worst situation in history. Later, with the continuous downturn of pig prices, the capital and debt repayment pressure of pig enterprises is expected to further expand. On the other hand, since April 2021, the prices of sows and piglets have continued to decline rapidly. Since September 2021, the prices of piglets and sows have been low, indicating that the overall willingness of farmers to make up the fence is poor, so the number of sows that can be transformed into fertile sows in the later stage is expected to be small.
Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) the agricultural team believes that the current trend of pig breeding sector is relatively certain, and the cumulative removal range of production capacity in the later stage will continue to expand, so it is recommended to focus on it.
In addition, many key companies in the media industry also received additional positions from the fund in the fourth quarter of last year. According to the statistics of China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) media team, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the media sector accounted for 1.14% of the heavy holdings of active partial equity funds, an increase of 0.25 percentage points compared with the third quarter.
Yi Bin also has his own views on the main line of this year's market. He said that if the epidemic control is effective, we think we can see the gradual recovery of the offline economy, and for the market as a whole, it is more to improve the market's expectations for the future economy. From the perspective of recent monetary policy easing, the market is more worried about the downward pressure on the economy. If we can see the effective control of the epidemic and the orderly recovery of connectivity with overseas, it will undoubtedly enhance the market's confidence in economic repair and boost the market's mood. If we can see the improvement of market sentiment in the first half of the year, we suggest investors to grasp the main line of the market from four main lines:
first, with the gradual realization of the annual report performance, the growth sector is expected to become the phased main line of the market after the Spring Festival; Secondly, with the gradual recovery of market transactions and the expected warming of comprehensive registration system, the sector investment opportunities of securities companies deserve attention; Third, with the Winter Olympics approaching and the superimposed epidemic environment window period, the offline economy represented by catering tourism and commercial retail is expected to usher in repair; Finally, the recent volcanic eruption in Tonga has raised concerns about global climate change. There is still great uncertainty in the global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply in 2022, and the essential consumer goods represented by agriculture still deserve continuous attention.
According to the statistics of Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) strategy team, from the market style and industry performance in the 20 trading days before and after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years, the best performance in the 20 / 10 / 5 trading days before the Spring Festival is growth / Finance / growth. With the recovery of market sentiment after the Spring Festival, the growth style continues to take the lead, and the average cumulative increase in the 20 trading days after the Spring Festival has reached 7.03%, Significant rise in TMT, computer and communication sectors; The second highest performance was cycle (4.74%) and stable style (4.61%), and textile and clothing, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and light industrial manufacturing in essential consumer goods also had a bright performance.
In addition, there is another perspective on the industry allocation direction in 2022 that deserves investors' attention. Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) the strategy team recently released a view that from the actual performance in recent years, the industries with the highest growth in the fourth quarter of each year are often a preview of the next year.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) the strategy team believes that the reason is that the market has been seriously divided in recent years, and various institutions have arranged in advance from the fourth quarter of each year. It is expected that the subdivided industries that may perform well in the coming year will be arranged in advance, and many times the market chooses the right direction in the fourth quarter of the next year, such as 2018, 2019 In the fourth quarter of 2020, the 20 sectors with the highest growth rate have a probability of obtaining excess returns in the next year of about 70%. The fourth quarter of 2020 rose by 20 leading industries: Baijiu, automobile works, medical beauty, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, white electricity, non dairy beverages, coal, petrochemical, rare metals, CXO, shipping, medical services, chemical fiber, diversified finance, industrial metals, military electronics and raw materials, steel, production line equipment, beer, among which new energy vehicles, The new energy sector represented by photovoltaic and the cycle sector represented by coal, petrochemical and steel once had a good performance in 2021.
Therefore, the direction of the top growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 deserves special attention, such as "automobile +", "computer +", metauniverse, military industry, industrial Internet, mandatory food, pork, traditional Chinese medicine, etc.
