After the interest rate cut in January, the trend of broad currency is clear, but there are still differences in broad credit. From the high-frequency data of various sub items of social finance in January, the total amount of social finance in January is not bad, which is expected to reach 5.6 trillion, an increase of about 0.5 trillion over the same period last year. However, under high technology, the growth rate is difficult to have a large increase. It is expected that the growth rate of social finance stock in January may be the same as that in December or rise slightly to 10.4%.
In terms of credit, the total amount of credit in January increased significantly month on month. On the whole, the “good start” of credit is optimistic. The total amount of credit in January this year is probably higher than that in the same period last year, and the new loans of social finance may reach about 4 trillion. However, there are still differences in bank credit in different regions and types. Large banks are better than small banks, and the East is better than the West. Large state-owned banks generally reported that the total amount of credit in January was basically the same as or slightly more than that in the same period last year. Some urban commercial banks and joint-stock banks in eastern China were relatively optimistic, and the planned credit had been basically completed in mid January. The total amount of credit granted in the whole year is not lower than that of last year, but there are differences among different banks in terms of growth rate. On the whole, it may be difficult to exceed that of last year.
Although there is a high probability of a “good start” in credit supply in January, most banks still reflect that the credit demand has not improved significantly compared with the end of last year. The regional differentiation of credit demand is obvious. The credit demand in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta is relatively strong, especially when the export is still resilient in the short term, which drives the high growth of credit demand in some parts of the Yangtze River Delta. The credit demand in Northeast and Northwest China is relatively low. Nationwide, the overall credit demand is not strong, and the “good start” of credit supply largely comes from the project reserve. Although there is a gap between the project reserve and previous years, there is little problem in supporting the stable credit supply in one or two quarters. In addition, under the demand of steady growth, the policy is in front, banks also have the demand of early delivery and early income, and the rhythm of bank credit delivery is also relatively advanced. The amount of credit delivery in the first quarter accounted for nearly 40% of the whole year.
Another major support item of social finance in January is government bonds, which is financially advanced. The net financing of government bonds in January was 696.95 billion, and the government bonds with social finance caliber may increase by about 680 billion, an increase of about 440 billion over the same period last year. In addition, the interest rate in the inter-bank market has decreased significantly, and the financing of credit bonds has rebounded. The net financing of corporate bonds is expected to be about 400 billion in January.
