Events
On January 27, Tesla released the fourth quarter financial report of 2021.
Commentary
The profitability reached a single quarter high. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company’s revenue was US $17.719 billion (GAAP), a year-on-year increase of + 65% and a month on month increase of + 29%. The net profit was US $2.321 billion (GAAP), with a year-on-year increase of + 760% and a month on month increase of + 43%, reaching a new high in a single quarter. The net cash flow from operating activities was US $4.585 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 52% and a month on month increase of + 46%. Under the non GAAP standard, EPS in the fourth quarter was $2.54/share, and the median market expectation was $2.46/share, which exceeded the market expectation.
The revenue of single vehicle continued to increase and the gross profit margin remained at a high level. In the fourth quarter, the revenue of automobile business was US $15.967 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 71%, a month on month increase of + 32%, and a gross profit margin of 30.6%, a year-on-year increase of + 650bp and a month on month increase of + 10bp. After deducting the points, the gross profit margin was 29.2%, with a chain comparison of + 40bp. After deducting the points, the average single vehicle revenue is 50700 US dollars. Year on year + 3%, month on month + 4%. After deducting the points, the gross profit of a single car is 14800 US dollars. + 45% year on year and 5% month on month. The number of inventory turnover days in the fourth quarter was 4 days, with a year-on-year increase of – 64% and a month on month increase of – 33%.
Domestic Tesla continued to export, highlighting the value of the supply chain. As of January 27, 22, Tesla has sent five cargo ships, including four from the Shanghai factory. The export of domestic Tesla to Europe not only helps to improve the production and sales volume, but also represents the product quality made in China. It has been recognized by the European market, once again shows the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car industry chain and comprehensive manufacturing level, and has strong international competitiveness. We expect that domestic suppliers will usher in new cooperation opportunities and their performance is expected to continue to improve.
We expect Tesla’s output in 2022 and 23 to be 1.8 million and 2.7 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 92% and + 50%. Shanghai’s factory capacity continues to improve, and domestic models 3 and y will be exported to more overseas markets, significantly improving the global delivery capacity. After the German plant and the Texas plant are fully put into operation in 2022, Tesla’s production capacity will increase significantly again. As the world’s top models, model 3 and y are expected to be in short supply or will exist for a long time.
Investment advice
Tesla is the strongest investment main line of electric vehicles, and supporting suppliers will benefit deeply. After the implementation of Tesla localization route, it has brought new cooperation opportunities for enterprises in the fields of battery system, body and components, interior and exterior decoration and so on. Driven by popular models such as modely, the global electrification trend will accelerate in 2022. Continue to be optimistic:
Battery: continue to pay attention to the targets with strong global competitiveness: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) .
Parts: focus on the areas of penetration improvement: chassis intelligence, heat pump, chassis lightweight, integrated casting and high-voltage connection; Areas where the localization rate is improved: controller, audio, tire, interior and exterior decoration, lamp, etc.
Risk tips
The subsidy policy for new energy vehicles is less than expected: the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has the possibility of falling back in advance, and there is uncertainty about the extent of the decline in subsidies, or reduce the risk that the extent of subsidies exceeds expectations.
The sales volume of new energy vehicles is less than expected: the sales of new energy vehicles are affected by macroeconomic links, industry support policies and consumers’ purchase intention, and there is uncertainty.
