The fund’s heavy holdings in household appliances increased month on month. In 2021q4, the market value ratio of heavy positions held by funds in the household appliance sector was 1.78%, an increase of 0.2pct compared with 1.58% in 2021q3. On the whole, the willingness of public funds to allocate the household appliance industry is still low, but it has improved. With the marginal weakening of factors restricting the household appliance industry, such as rising prices of raw materials, flat downstream retail and poor shipping, the profitability of household appliance enterprises is expected to improve, The ratio of heavy positions of the fund to home appliance stocks is expected to continue to improve.
Air conditioning exports continued to grow. In December 2021, 11.5224 million household air conditioners were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 0.32%. Among them, domestic shipments were 5.7409 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.37%, and exports were 5.7815 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.26%. Throughout the year, domestic sales shipped 84.7 million units in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% in 2019, which was lower than the expectation at the beginning of the year. The main reason was that the air conditioning industry chain was squeezed by the rapid increase of manufacturing costs caused by the rise of raw material prices and the continuous weakness of the demand side. Exports increased by 5.26% in December, continuing the growth trend. Under the background of high base, the growth rate improved significantly month on month, slightly exceeding expectations, mainly due to the preparation of goods in overseas markets at the end of the year.
Both internal and external sales of ice washing decreased. In December, the sales volume of refrigerators was 7.1511 million, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%, of which the domestic and export sales decreased by 6.3% and 11.5% respectively, and the sales volume of washing machines was 6.5462 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, of which the domestic and foreign sales decreased by 5.4% and 6.6% respectively. We believe that the decline in the sales volume of ice washing is mainly due to short-term fluctuations. In the long run, the domestic shipments of ice washing are relatively stable, and there is little pressure on domestic sales in 2022. In terms of export, the recent decline in exports is mainly due to the impact of last year’s high base. With the continuous improvement of the competitiveness of China’s household appliances and the gradual easing of shipping pressure, the export scale is expected to remain high.
The home appliance index fell in January. As of January 27, Shenwan home appliance index fell by 3.95%, ranking sixth among Shenwan’s 28 first-class industries, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (- 6.49%), and the industry price earnings ratio (TTM) was 17.31, lower than the historical average of 21.54 since 2006, in a medium and low position. The industry P / E ratio (TTM overall method, excluding negative values) is 3.63 units lower than the historical average since 2005. The valuation premium rate of home appliance sector (excluding bank shares from a shares) was – 11.6%, and the historical average was – 11.07%.
Investment suggestion: the overall performance of the household appliance sector is relatively weak in 2021. Looking forward to 2022, the shipment of traditional household appliances is expected to remain relatively stable, and the subdivided categories such as clean appliances, integrated stoves and dishwashers are expected to maintain a high outlook. The rising pressure of raw material prices will slow down, and the profitability of household appliance enterprises will be improved. It is suggested to pay attention to two main lines. First, traditional household appliance leaders benefiting from the improvement of fundamentals are recommended Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) and Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) . 2、 Pay attention to the leading industry segments with high prosperity, and recommend Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Kingclean Electric Co.Ltd(603355) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) .
