\u3000\u3000 Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) (600779)
Focusing on high-end strategy and marketing system reform, the annual performance is expected to increase, and the rating of “overweight” is maintained
The company expects to achieve a revenue of 4.632 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of about + 54%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.199 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about + 64%, deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.216 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 68%; In the fourth quarter, the revenue was 1.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.06%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 199 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.48%. The annual performance is slightly better than expected. We raised our profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.20 (+ 0.6) billion yuan, 1.66 (+ 0.2) billion yuan, 2.23 (+ 0.2) billion yuan, EPS will be 246 (+ 0.12) yuan, 3.40 (+ 0.05) yuan and 4.56 (+ 0.06) yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 64%, 38% and 34% respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 42.4, 30.7 and 22.9 times respectively, Maintain the “overweight” rating.
The company actively controlled the goods and raised the price, and continued to strengthen brand marketing, resulting in the decline of Q4 net profit margin
The company’s 2021q3 channel has a strong enthusiasm for goods preparation. 2021q4 company takes the initiative to control the goods and raise the price. In October, the retail price of well platform and well platform is increased, accompanied by the periodic suspension of goods. In November, the group purchase price of the collection series is suggested to be increased, focusing on the de inventory. At the same time, in the process of high-end, the company continued to strengthen brand marketing in the fourth quarter, with large advertising expenses, resulting in a year-on-year decline in net interest rate in the fourth quarter. For the whole year, the company’s income and performance in 2021 are still at a relatively fast level compared with 2019. The sales volume in 2021 increased by about 3171 kiloliters compared with 2020, a year-on-year increase of about 40%, the average price increased by 17%, and the effect of structural improvement is obvious.
Most of the main regions have received payments smoothly, and Q1 in 2022 can still make an optimistic outlook
Controlling goods and raising prices in the fourth quarter laid a good foundation for the peak season of the Spring Festival. Even under the disturbance of the epidemic, the collection target of the current peak season in the main regions has been basically completed, and the revenue end is expected to achieve steady growth in 2022q1. Benefiting from the price increase expectation of well platform and collection, the product structure has increased steadily, and the performance elasticity of 2022q1 is expected to be better than that of income.
We continued to implement the high-end strategy and made phased breakthroughs in the reform of the marketing system
In 2022, the company will continue to focus on resources, achieve a breakthrough in the scale of high-end collections, and orderly promote the steady growth of sub high-end well platforms and No. 8; In terms of organizational structure, the high-end business department will speed up the cultivation of high-end consumers, the investment promotion of collection and sales companies is progressing smoothly, and the investment promotion and distribution speed of high-end products is improved. The secondary high-end price belt continues to expand, the company’s system reform has achieved phased results, and there is still enough high-end and national potential in the future.
Risk tip: macroeconomic fluctuations lead to a decline in demand, and the promotion of new products is less than expected
