End! January 28 is not only the closing day of January trading, but also the closing day of the year of the A-share bull. The three indexes showed differentiation, with mixed closing. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.97% to 3361.44 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.53% to 13328.06 points, and the gem index rose 0.07% to 2908.94. Point; The total turnover of the two cities was 818.9 billion yuan, and the net sale of funds from the North was 12.466 billion yuan. Overall, stocks in the two cities rose more and fell less, with more than 3200 stocks rising.
On January 28, the year of the ox of the Chinese lunar calendar for A-Shares ended, and the performance of the three major indexes was differentiated. As of the closing, the Shanghai index fell 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.53% and the gem index rose 0.07%; The total turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 818.9 billion yuan; The net sales of northbound funds were 12.466 billion yuan. In January, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 7.65%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 10.29% and the gem index fell 12.45%. Specifically, scenic spots and tourism sectors led the rise strongly, and six stocks such as Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited(000978) , Anhui Jiuhuashan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(603199) collectively rose by the limit; Black household appliances, education, communication services, hotels, catering and other sectors were active; Coal mining and processing sector led the decline, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) fell more than 8%; Voice technology, COVID-19 treatment, small metals, Baijiu concept and other sectors fell. Today, Juncheng technology landed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange gem, up 15.60%; Shipu test landed on the gem of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, up 81.52%; Huakang medical landed on the gem of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, up 18.63%. 62 stocks rose on the Beijing stock exchange today, with Gaishi food, AVIC TEDA and Tonghui electronics among the top three.
Looking back on the trend of A-Shares in January, the three major stock indexes pulled back across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 7.65%, the Shenzhen composite index fell by 10.29% and the gem index fell by 12.45%.
The industry sector rose more or fell less. From the perspective of shenwanyi industry, 14 industries rose on Friday, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and social services leading the increase, both exceeding 2%, 2.74% and 2.25% respectively. In addition, coal and food and beverage industries led the decline, both exceeding 2%.
In terms of specific hot spots, the tourism and hotel sector led the rise strongly. As of the closing, the sector rose by 4.19%, of which 8 concept stocks such as Xi'An Catering Co.Ltd(000721) , Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited(000978) , Anhui Jiuhuashan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(603199) rose collectively. Black household appliances, education, communication services, hotels, catering and other sectors were active; Coal mining and processing sector led the decline, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) fell more than 8%; Voice technology, COVID-19 treatment, small metals, Baijiu concept and other sectors fell.
In terms of news, according to the data released by the Ministry of culture and tourism, the total number of Chinese tourists in 2021 was 3.246 billion, an increase of 367 million or 12.8% over the same period of last year (back to 54.0% in 2019); China's tourism revenue reached 2.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.69 trillion yuan or 31% over the same period last year. (51.0% in 2019); The annual per capita tourism consumption was 899.28 yuan, an increase of 125.14 yuan or 16.2% over the same period last year.
For the future investment in the tourism sector, Anxin securities suggests to continue to pay attention to the development of the epidemic and the changes of tourism policies and markets outside China. Focus on Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) with high performance flexibility, and pay attention to Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) benefiting from ice and snow sports; Fosun travel, which is positioned as a high-end vacation and is expected to benefit from the return of high-end outbound tourists, is in the Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) of upgrading the medium and high-end product line. Haichang Ocean Park, which focuses on the theme of card parent-child Ocean Park.
In terms of individual stocks, on Friday, three new shares were listed on the gem of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with excellent performance. They all boarded the dragon and tiger list and became the object of capital pursuit. As of the close, the real Park test soared 81.52%; Huakang medical and Juncheng technology increased by 18.63% and 15.60% respectively
rush to raise funds on Friday (January 28)
tabulation: Zhang Ying
For the recent shock consolidation of the market, where is the future market of A-Shares after the festival? Major institutions hold different views.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: strengthen confidence and look at the post holiday market of A-Shares optimistically. The negative impact on the denominator side is intensive, the confidence on the numerator side is insufficient, the pre holiday trading level disturbance is superimposed, and the pre holiday market continues to adjust. Looking forward to the Spring Festival, 1) positive factors will be gradually revised upward. After experiencing the real estate credit risk and local hidden debt problems in recent years, the market inevitably hesitates to stabilize growth. However, at present, the local two sessions have been held one after another, and the word "stability" will take the lead. The steady growth policy will accelerate and exert its force. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the molecular end after the year. 2) Negative factors will accelerate convergence. At present, the market is gradually pricing the changes in overseas liquidity expectations. The negative impact of overseas liquidity expectations before the year is being accelerated. At the same time, the real estate credit risk will be gradually implemented after the year, and the negative factors at the denominator will accelerate the convergence. Recently, the short-term risk appetite of investors has been at a low level, and the downward space is limited. 3) In addition, from the perspective of calendar effect, it can also be observed that the market performance after the Spring Festival over the years is significantly better than that before the Spring Festival. Overall, the market is expected to gradually recover after the Spring Festival.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : A shares are currently cost-effective, and there is a high probability of repair after the Spring Festival. From the logical deduction, under the overweight of stable growth policy, A-Shares are expected to gradually usher in the bottom of valuation, sentiment and profit. The profit growth of A-Shares in the second half of the year is expected to pick up quarter by quarter, further supporting the trend repair of a shares.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) : A-share market sentiment has bottomed out periodically and is expected to recover in the future. In terms of sentiment indicators, the proportion of more than ma200 stocks in the whole market has dropped to 31.61%, the lowest since March 2021. In the past, the proportion of 20% - 30% was generally at the bottom of the stage; Secondly, from the valuation of popular sectors, the quantile of new energy valuation has decreased from about 80% in the early stage to 63.44% at present, military industry has decreased from 70% before New Year's day to 41.79% at present, and electronics has further decreased from 30% to 18.07% at present. The adjustment of growth sectors has been relatively sufficient, and the valuation cost performance has been revealed; Finally, in terms of the self purchase scale of funds, at present, with the cold mood of fund issuance, fund companies have begun to purchase their own products. The average self purchase scale of funds in recent two months has reached about 400 million, which is at a historically high level. In the past, when the self purchase scale of funds reached a phased high point, the subsequent market will generally rebound. Typical cases are March 2021 and October 2021, Therefore, the current emotional bottom is expected to bring post Festival layout opportunities.
Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu Investment: the continuous adjustment of the A-share market is mainly suppressed by external factors and holiday effect.
At present, there are many external uncertainties. Global market volatility has increased; Approaching the Spring Festival holiday, some funds also have risk avoidance considerations, and several factors suppress the performance of the A-share market before the festival. However, China's steady growth policy orientation has been established, and favorable policies are constantly introduced; During the year, the capital market reform with comprehensive registration system was favorable; In addition, the market adjustment since the end of the year is relatively sufficient in terms of time and space. From a comprehensive point of view, the further downward space of the A-share market is limited, and the upward momentum is still accumulating. If the above external factors do not deteriorate or even improve during the long holiday, there is a greater opportunity for the market to rebound after the holiday.
Zhu Liang, executive partner of Danyi Investment: recently, the market decline is also normal due to negative factors such as external interest rate increase, geopolitics and epidemic situation. However, we believe that historically, the probability of a full bear market in a broad monetary environment is very small. Although the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates and shrinking the table is strong, for a shares, we think China's monetary policy is the main policy. As stated in the annual report, we are still optimistic about the structural market throughout the year. Therefore, the more recent declines, the greater the later space. This opportunity may come from sectors with good fundamentals after digesting the overvalued value, such as automotive electronics, software (SaaS, industry Xinchuang), etc. Sectors of consumption recovery after the epidemic: offline consumption fields such as catering and aviation; And other new cables. But it will take time to digest valuations, recover after the epidemic or new clues. I believe that under the loose monetary environment, time is on the side of investors. As time goes on, the pictures will spread out in turn, and the opportunities will appear gradually.
