The last trading day of A-Shares in the lunar year of the ox is "attack" or "defense"? How to operate in the year of the tiger?
the probability of rising on the "last day" is 70%
In 2022, the A-share market showed a downward trend as a whole. On the 27th, the three major A-share indexes fell in shock throughout the day. As of the close, the Shanghai stock index fell 1.78%, and the Shanghai stock index fell below the integer mark of 3400 points; The Shenzhen composite index fell 2.77%; Gem index fell 3.25%; More than 4400 shares fell in the two cities. On the disk, tourism, software services, Internet and other sectors led the decline.
For the decline on the 27th, Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, told Zhongxin Jingwei that there are three main reasons: first, the hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve caused the global stock market to fall, and the A-share market was disturbed by external factors; Second, the impact of the global epidemic still exists. In the past week, there were more than 21 million newly confirmed cases worldwide, the highest number of newly confirmed cases in a single week since the outbreak, and the epidemic is still uncertain; Third, the long Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and the uncertainty of overseas risks makes China's pre festival capital risk preference decline and its willingness to actively allocate funds.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, pointed out that according to an empirical study on the correlation between A-Shares and US stocks in the past ten years, the correlation between A-Shares and US stocks is not high. Therefore, if U.S. stocks peak this year and fall by a large margin, the impact on A-Shares is actually short-term. Compared with the tightening monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the Central Bank of China has more loose monetary tools to use, which plays a certain role in maintaining market confidence and promoting the rebound of A-share market.
For the last trading day of the upcoming year of the ox, from the historical data, investors can take it easy.
According to the data of the last trading day before the lunar new year in recent 10 years, the Shanghai Composite Index shows a pattern of 7 rises and 3 falls, with a 70% rise probability.
fund self purchase on a large scale. What will the market be like after the year?
Since the beginning of 2022, the Shanghai index has fallen 6.75%, the Shenzhen Component Index has fallen 9.82% and the gem index has fallen 12.52%. The continuous decline made the fund companies "unable to sit still", and many fund companies announced to invest in their own funds.
According to incomplete statistics of China Singapore Jingwei, a total of 13 public offerings announced on the 27th to invest in self purchase of their funds. Most fund companies have announced that the holding period is no less than 1 year, and the types of funds involved are mainly partial equity funds and hybrid funds.
For the market after the year, "historically, after the new year's day and before the Spring Festival, A-Shares have been adjusted by about 5% or even more, and the probability will rebound to varying degrees after the festival." China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) the strategy research team believes that we should grasp two main lines of counterattack: first, we should continue to increase the weight of money and credit, and the stable growth market will continue to deduce; Second, at present, the high prosperity of some high-quality growth stocks is still supported by fundamentals, and the valuation contraction is expected to come to an end. The market began to respond to the expectations of the first quarterly report, and ushered in a counterattack after further verification of fundamentals.
Yang Delong said that from the perspective of valuation, the overall valuation level of A-Shares is a depression in the world's major capital markets, which is also an important support for the current market with little room for sharp decline. The Shanghai composite index made a substantial adjustment at the beginning of this year, and basically fell to the lower edge of the box with range shocks in the past year. It is unlikely to fall further sharply. From the perspective of the general direction, it is a better investment strategy to layout some high-quality leading stocks that have been wrongly killed while the market is adjusting. Large consumption, new energy and Internet technology are the three directions that benefit from economic transformation.
"Judging from the recent central bank speech and the issuance of special bonds, the fiscal and monetary policies throughout the year are expected to continue to work," steady growth "is still the main tone of this year and will constitute a basic support for the macro economy." Chen Li pointed out that he still holds a partial "optimistic" attitude towards the A-share market. It is suggested to pay attention to the performance support and the key development direction of national policies in 2022.
