On January 27, A-Shares fell sharply again.
The Shanghai index fell below the 3400 point mark and all sectors fell. The Shanghai index fell 1.78%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 2.77% and the gem index fell 3.25%.
Northbound funds sold a net 14.624 billion yuan throughout the day
Data show that as many as 4402 of the 4713 A shares fell and only 271 rose.
Overall, the decline of relevant sectors with undervalued value or weak performance last year was relatively small, while the decline of sectors with high valuation and growth was the top, with digital economy related sectors leading the decline.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that quantitative funds have been closed and sold one after another, and a large number of public offering companies collectively support the market and plan to buy their own products.
root cause of panic crash
On January 27th, A-Shares made a sharp correction.
Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund believes that it is mainly due to the hawkish information transmitted by the Fed meeting and the turbulence in the external market. Internally, the market still lacks confidence in “stable growth” and the long holiday is imminent. These internal and external uncertainties lead to low risk sentiment, insufficient willingness to enter and heavy wait-and-see mentality, resulting in an emotional decline in the market. In addition, after the appreciation to the previous high, the RMB has depreciated slightly against the US dollar in recent days.
Among them, the overnight fed interest rate meeting is considered to be the direct trigger for the sharp decline of A-Shares on January 27.
The relevant guidelines for interest rate increase and table reduction given in the written document of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in January basically meet market expectations. However, Powell said at the press conference that the point of exceeding expectations was that he was open to raising interest rates more than four times during the year and the range of interest rate increases, which led to the market’s expectation of raising interest rates four to five times during the year, and triggered the rapid fall of asset prices to hawks. After Powell’s above statement, asset prices also adjusted significantly, US bond yields jumped in an all-round way, the interest rate curve became steeper, gold almost erased all the gains in the past week, the US dollar index regained strength, and US stocks fell rapidly. This concerns about the valuation end of A-share assets.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said, “the statement issued at the overnight fed interest rate meeting was hawkish, which led to the adjustment of US stocks and had a certain impact on the short-term trend of A-Shares and Hong Kong stocks.”
“The decline of US stocks will have a certain impact on the global capital market and suppress the short-term trend of A-Shares and Hong Kong stocks.” Yang Delong pointed out.
However, China Southern Fund pointed out that “overseas factors may have a certain impact on the adjustment of a shares, but it is not the main reason.”
According to the analysis of China Southern Fund, from the perspective of the structure of A-share adjustment, it is mainly reflected in the rotation of its own style, and the adjustment range of overvalued sector is large. The obvious case is that the adjustment range of the neutral valuation CSI 300 index is significantly less than that of the US S & P 500, and the undervalued Hong Kong stocks have performed significantly better than other market indexes since 2022.
In addition, China Merchants Fund believes that the current market still has obvious differences on the strength and effect of stable growth, and is still worried about the transition from broad currency to broad credit.
quantitative private placement pre holiday closing
“Everyone may close their positions before the festival, and so do we.” A senior executive of a private equity quantitative fund company told reporters.
It said that private equity quantitative will use securities lending or stock index futures and options as hedging, but recently the market has fallen to the stop loss line, and the quantitative fund can not be controlled artificially and will sell automatically.
In practice, many institutions have recently reduced their positions out of concern about the bad market during the Spring Festival.
“Investors, especially institutional investors, are worried that there will be bad news during the festival, which will have a certain impact on the capital market. Therefore, they should withdraw from the market first to ensure that their positions are relatively stable.” Zhao Lisong, general manager of Runde Yingxi private equity fund, said.
The above quantitative private placement people said that the main concern of the institution is that the sharp decline of A-Shares after the Spring Festival last year will repeat, and everyone has lingering fears. At present, there are many sporadic outbreaks in China, and we generally feel that the uncertainty is relatively high.
According to the above quantitative private placement analysis, “yesterday (January 26), A-Shares rebounded, and you may rush in and rebound again, but the profit positions rebounded yesterday must be out, because they are all aimed at the short-term, but today’s such a hit, the market hit down again.”
“In addition, from a technical point of view, the whole market is actually a short market. Now, if you look at it from the daily level, it has formed such an arrangement of short positions,” he said
In fact, some insiders believe that the quantitative fund contributed to the decline of the market on January 27.
The quantitative fund explained, “the quantitative fund has a stop loss line. The recent decline must have broken the stop loss line. Once it reaches the stop loss line, the fund will automatically close its position, so the quantitative fund will make a sell action.”
Another senior executive of quantitative fund also said, “quantitative fund will sell once there is a signal. This is normal. At present, the excess pressure of quantitative fund has further intensified.”
institutions increase positions against the market and buy from themselves
According to the reporter, some investment institutions have increased their positions against the market in the recent sharp decline.
“Our entire position was closed last week, but now we think it’s an opportunity and add it. Now we’re about to add it to half of our position.” Dou Changmin, general manager of Beijing Quantitative Investment Management Co., Ltd., said.
However, some active equity investment institutions have increased their positions obviously.
“Today, we basically increased our positions to 60%, because when we finished new year’s day, there was a trend decline in the market. At that time, we reduced our positions. Yesterday and today, we increased our positions by 20% accordingly.” Zhao Lisong said.
Lin Jiayi, CEO of Xuanjia finance, also said that its funds increased their positions when the market fell sharply on January 25 and continued to increase their holdings on January 27.
“We continue to focus on the high growth of undervalued value and the excessive decline of sentiment for reverse disciplinary overweight.” Lin Jiayi said.
Lin Jiayi judged that “the return of funds after the festival has a huge probability of violent rebound.”
On January 27, at least 10 fund companies announced self purchase.
It is understood that China Europe Fund and Glenn announced that they planned to repurchase 52 million China Europe medical fund; Huitianfu fund plans to purchase RMB 200 million of huitianfu MSCI China A50 interconnection ETF; E fund and ICBC Credit Suisse fund plan to purchase 100 million funds by themselves; GF fund and China Merchants Fund plan to purchase 80 million equity funds; Wells Fargo fund plans to purchase 60 million equity and hybrid funds; China Southern Fund, Hua’an fund, Harvest Fund, Cathay Pacific Fund, Dacheng Fund, etc. plan to purchase 50 million funds by themselves.
In addition, the funds managed by many star fund managers such as Zhang Kun and Zhu Shaoxing also began to increase the subscription limit. For example, the blue chip selection of e fund managed by Zhang Kun raised the limit of single account per day from 2000 yuan to 10000 yuan.
institutions still have confidence in the market after the year
Institutions generally have confidence and hope in the market trend after the year.
After the Spring Festival, China Merchants Fund believes that 1) positive factors will be gradually revised upward. After experiencing the real estate credit risk and local hidden debt problems in recent years, the market inevitably hesitates to stabilize growth. However, at present, the local two sessions have been held one after another, and the demand for steady growth is strong. With the successive completion of the term change of provincial Party and government organs, the steady growth policy will accelerate the promotion and force, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the molecular end after the year.
2) negative factors will accelerate convergence. At present, the market is gradually pricing the changes in overseas liquidity expectations. The negative impact of overseas liquidity expectations before the year is being accelerated. At the same time, the real estate credit risk will be gradually implemented after the year, and the negative factors at the denominator will accelerate the convergence. In addition, the short-term risk appetite of investors has been at a low level recently, and the downward space is limited. On the whole, the A-share market may gradually recover after the Spring Festival.
Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund believes that the Spring Festival effect leads to a lack of confidence in many parties, but believes that the downward space of A-Shares is limited, the track risk is gradually released, and the current A shares have a high cost performance.
Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund pointed out that the “stable growth” of A-Shares is still the phased main line, focusing on the high boom stocks in the obvious callback of growth stocks. In the follow-up, we still need to continue to pay attention to factors such as the rhythm of the Fed’s policy, geographical events, the rhythm and strength of China’s policy, and the interpretation of epidemic situations at home and abroad, so as to update the judgment of market rhythm and structure.
The reason for the sharp decline of A-Shares has been found! Quick interpretation of more than a dozen funds
