Today is the last trading day of the year of the Xin Chou ox. the A-share market of this year can be described as “ox head and mouse tail”. The first trading day of the beginning of the year (the seventh day of the first month on February 18, 2021) is the highest point of the whole year, but now it has to close to the lowest point of the whole year to end the year’s trading. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indexes representing A-share blue chips fell by more than 20% throughout the year, entering a technical bear market.
Stimulated by the self purchase plan announced by many public funds last night, the A shares opened higher in the morning, and the Shanghai stock index once recovered 3400 points. However, under the pressure of selling, it quickly turned green and hit a new low since this round of adjustment.
On the disk, tourism, digital currency, prefabricated dishes, baby concept and other sectors led the rise, while coal, lithium, oil, nonferrous metals and other resource sectors led the decline. The net outflow of funds from Beishang was 3.18 billion yuan.
the expectation of Spring Festival travel is high, and tourism stocks are hot
Early this morning, the Zhuhai New Coronavirus pneumonia epidemic prevention and control command issued a circular that the whole area of Zhuhai was reduced to a low risk area and no longer implemented “24 hours’ negative control of nucleic acid proof”. Earlier, similar announcements were issued in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Zhengzhou, Tianjin and other places.
This makes the previously suppressed tourism sector popular again, and the expectation of Spring Festival travel is rising again. The tourism sector index rose unilaterally in early trading, with a sharp rise of more than 5%, Anhui Jiuhuashan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(603199) , Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) and Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) , Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited(000978) , Zhang Jia Jie Tourism Group Co.Ltd(000430) , Tibet Tourism Co.Ltd(600749) also rose strongly to approach the limit.
According to the data released by Tujia, it has become a trend to pack a small courtyard for the new year this year. The orders for the whole rented courtyard during the Spring Festival increased by more than 50% year-on-year in 2021, the average length of stay was extended to 2-3 days, the customer unit price exceeded 10000 yuan, and the order volume increased by about 56% compared with the Spring Festival in 2021.
In addition, a new type of tourism may emerge quietly. Today, the National Space Administration released its fifth space white paper, “China’s space in 2021”. According to the National Space Administration, the space application industry will be cultivated and expanded in the next five years to support high-quality economic and social development. Promote the deep integration of space applications and digital economy, enrich application scenarios and innovate business models. Accelerate the transfer and transformation of space technology achievements to the economy and society, and cultivate and develop new forms of space economy such as space tourism. If someone says “why don’t you go to heaven”, you can immediately go back and “I’ll go to heaven”.
Anxin Securities believes that it is optimistic about the recovery of the follow-up tourism sector, and it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the development of the epidemic and the changes of tourism policies and markets outside China. Focus on Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) with high performance flexibility, and pay attention to Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) benefiting from ice and snow sports; Fosun travel, which is positioned as a high-end vacation and is expected to benefit from the return of high-end outbound tourists, is in the Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) of upgrading the medium and high-end product line. Haichang Ocean Park, which focuses on the theme of card parent-child Ocean Park.
organization: Chinese New Year
Although approaching the Spring Festival, the A-share holiday effect is obvious, the turnover is shrinking, and the stock index is down, most institutions are optimistic about the post holiday market. Today, Qianhai open source Fund announced that based on its confidence in the long-term, healthy and stable development of China’s capital market, it will purchase the partial share public offering fund of the company with its inherent funds within five trading days from the date of the announcement, with a total contribution of no less than 50 million yuan and holding it for more than three years. In the previous two trading days, 17 public funds such as e fund, Wells Fargo, gf and harvest announced their self purchase plans.
Securities companies are also optimistic about the post holiday market and have cheered up the A-share platform. Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said that whether for economic growth or market operation, the “cause” of confidence is more important than the “result” of growth. At the moment, strengthen confidence, look at the post holiday market of A-Shares optimistically, and increase positions for the new year.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) believes that the short-term disturbance does not change the medium and long-term good trend of a shares. 1) Data analysis: whether comparing the stock bond yield horizontally, calculating the quantile of equity risk premium vertically, or calculating the statistical law of historical calendar effect before and after the Spring Festival, it shows that A-Shares have high cost performance and high probability of repair after the festival; 2) Logical deduction: under the overweight of stable growth policy, A-Shares are expected to gradually usher in the bottom of valuation, sentiment and profit. The profit growth of A-Shares in the second half of the year is expected to pick up quarter by quarter, further supporting the trend repair of a shares. 3) Structural foundation: China’s macro, meso and micro level transformation supports the medium and long-term slow bull trend of a shares.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) pointed out that from the macro perspective of economic growth, external policies, capital flow and relative allocation value, the allocation value of A-Shares after adjustment began to appear and can be gradually optimistic. China’s economy is at the bottom stage. Under the tone of steady growth, whether it is the total growth rate or the industrial structure, continuous improvement on the margin is a high probability event. Looking forward to 2022, the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain in a strong range, and the general trend of foreign capital inflow into A-Shares will not change. In addition, this year, although the real estate industry is expected to stabilize and rebound on the basis of last year’s downturn, the probability of rapid and sharp rise in house prices is still small, and A-Shares will continue to enjoy alternative dividends in 2022.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the short-term adjustment of the A-share market deviated from the trend of China’s monetary easing. External changes such as the loose exit of the Federal Reserve will not restrict the “me dominated” Chinese policy style, nor change the trend of long-term additional allocation of A-shares by foreign capital. Secondly, the time point of the greatest downward pressure on China’s economic growth has passed. After the currency’s first force exceeds expectations, the relay of other ministries and local governments is expected to form a policy synergy, and the “policy bottom” has been made clear. To sum up, under the resonance of “emotional bottom” and “market bottom”, the overshoot of A-Shares brought better buying points for the market in the first half of the year.
