Key investment points:
In January, the trend of A-Shares was weak, and the blue chip performance of the market was relatively strong: as of January 21, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3522.57 points, down 3.22% from the end of December. The performance of the whole month was sluggish and showed a downward trend. In terms of sub structure, the main stock indexes of A-Shares have been collectively adjusted, and the performance of blue chip in the market is relatively strong. This month, SSE 50 and CSI 300 fell by 1.70% and 3.26% respectively, while Kechuang 50 and gem index fell by 7.71% and 8.67% respectively.
The performance growth of A-share listed companies will gradually hit the bottom. The process of profit restoration will continue to affect the follow-up trend of the market. At present, the driving force of economic growth is insufficient, and the pressure on “steady growth” has increased. Recently, the central ministries and commissions and various local governments have intensively issued a number of policies, which have accelerated the formation of policy joint forces and vigorously promoted the “good start” of economic data, which will have a positive impact on the market, and investors’ pessimistic expectations of profits are expected to be gradually digested. It is expected that the pulling effect of investment on the economy will pick up, and the performance of high-quality companies in the upstream and downstream related industrial chains is expected to be reflected first.
The liquidity environment of A-Shares is improving, and investors’ mentality tends to be conservative: before the substantial improvement of economic data, the macro liquidity remains stable and loose. At the same time, the fiscal policy is gradually strengthened, and the credit policy is introduced one after another. The pattern of “wide currency + wide credit” is formed, which is beneficial to equity assets as a whole. At present, the market lacks sustainable direction, the concept rotates rapidly, the market sentiment is relatively weak, the market performance of the Spring Festival effect may be lower than the market expectation, and the investor mentality tends to be conservative.
Corporate profits continued to be under pressure, driving the decline of market risk appetite, and the funds turned to pursuing large-scale blue chips: the sharp correction of small and medium-sized innovation, new energy and science and technology sectors weakened market confidence, and the valuation level fell. It is expected that without significant improvement in performance and weak market, the valuation level of A-Shares will be difficult to recover, and the valuation of large blue chip and stable style sectors may strengthen with the support of capital inflow.
General trend research and judgment and industry configuration suggestions: it is expected that the performance of blue chips in the market in February is still relatively excellent, and the bright spots can still be tapped in the rotation of the sector, looking for configuration opportunities or the best choice along the direction of market consensus. “Wide money + wide credit” aims at “stable growth”. It is suggested to pay attention to the consumption, infrastructure and undervalued financial sectors: 1) the required consumption sectors with supported performance, high prosperity and price increase expectation in the consumption sector deserve attention, and the fields of household appliances and appliances in the post real estate cycle also have allocation opportunities; 2) As an important starting point for underpinning the economy, infrastructure construction will continue to work. Focus on new infrastructure sectors such as 5g, UHV, urban rail and charging pile; 3) The tone of monetary policy tends to be loose, with abundant liquidity and large demand for capital hedging, which is conducive to boosting the performance of large financial sectors such as banking and insurance; 4) With the marginal relaxation of real estate financial policies, the real estate, building materials and building decoration sectors are expected to continue to improve.
Risk factors: deterioration of the epidemic situation; The economy fell faster than expected; Regulatory policies have been significantly tightened.
