Sales: commercial housing sales continued to decline significantly, and the reconstruction of confidence urgently needs policy overweight. In December, the sales area of commercial housing was - 15.64% year-on-year, and the former value was - 13.97%; The sales volume was - 17.78% year-on-year, and the previous value was - 16.31%; The average sales price was -2.53% year-on-year, and the previous value was -2.71%. We believe that the short-term recovery of sales last month is mainly due to the release of accumulated demand caused by the price reduction and promotion of real estate enterprises and the relaxation of mortgage policy. The overall sales situation is still grim. The negative attitude of enterprises towards investment and consumers towards house purchase is difficult to reverse in the short term. The recovery of sales still needs more policies on the demand side.
Development Investment: new construction continued to be weak, the completion growth rate fell, and the investment willingness and ability of real estate enterprises were extremely depressed. In December, the newly started area was - 31.15% year-on-year, and the previous value was - 21.03%; The completed area was 1.91% year-on-year, and the former value was 15.41%; The development investment was -13.91% year-on-year, and the former value was -4.30%. We believe that the shortage of funds and the decline of sales have led to a great impact on the investment ability and willingness of real estate enterprises, and the decline of new construction is difficult to reverse in the short term. Although the completed area has significantly warmed up under the "guaranteed delivery" and the accelerated completion of real estate enterprises at the end of the year, putting limited funds into the completion and delivery may lead to a further decline in the ability and willingness of real estate enterprises to obtain land and start new construction, and the data of new construction and land investment in the future will continue to be under pressure.
Funds in place: funds are under pressure, and the decline in sales is the biggest obstacle to the improvement of industry fundamentals. In December, the funds in place were -19.28% year-on-year, and the previous value was -7.01%. The funds available from all channels have declined in an all-round way, and both sales and financing are in trouble. We believe that with the development of financing side policies, liquidity is expected to overflow from central enterprises and state-owned real estate enterprises to private enterprises with stable operation, and the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises will continue to be met. However, the pressure brought by the collapse of sales in the short term will still be unbearable for highly leveraged real estate enterprises, and the liquidity risk of some real estate enterprises may continue to ferment.
Investment suggestions:
The improvement efforts at both ends of the industry supply and demand will be upgraded until the current stalled decline in real estate investment and sales is reversed to ensure the stability of the real estate industry. We believe that the care policy of the financing section will promote high credit real estate enterprises to gain advantages in the land and M & a market. The continuous land acquisition and promotion ability and high-quality credit endorsement are also expected to seize the opportunity when the demand recovers and further improve the market share. Recommended China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) . It is also recommended to continuously track the stable private real estate enterprises, such as Longhu group and country garden.
Risk tip: the risk of further tightening industrial policies, the risk of continued decline in profitability, and the risk of sales falling short of expectations.
