In 2021, China’s total exports increased by 29.90% year-on-year. In December alone, exports increased by + 20.90% year-on-year and 4.8% month on month. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, the total exports in 2021 reached 3366.189 billion US dollars, an increase of 29.90% year-on-year, of which the export volume in a single month in December was 340.499 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of + 20.90%, compared with 324.908 billion US dollars in November 21, a month-on-month increase of + 4.8%.
China’s export container freight index (CCFI) is still at a high level, with the weekly composite index + 1.9% month on month. From the weekly data of China’s export container index (CCFI), as of January 21, 22, the CCFI composite index was 3555.24, which was still at a high level year-on-year, with a month on month ratio of + 1.9%, of which the US East / US West / European routes were + 3.8% / – 0.7% / + 3.4% respectively.
The inventory of wholesalers and manufacturers in the United States continues to grow, the replenishment of retailers has slowed down slightly, and there is still room for replenishment. Since the beginning of the year, the production and wholesale sectors in the United States have made substantial replenishment. However, due to the obstruction of channels and delivery links, the retail side continues to go. In November 21, the total inventory of the United States / manufacturer’s inventory / retailer’s inventory / wholesaler’s inventory increased by + 10.1% / + 11.0% / 0.0% / + 18.7% year-on-year. The inventory of wholesalers and manufacturers continues to grow and is currently at a high level; In November 21, the total sales volume of the United States / sales of manufacturers / sales of retailers / sales of wholesalers were + 16.2% / + 6.8% / + 15.1% / + 26.8% year on year. The sales growth rate of all links maintained growth, and there was still room for replenishment at the retail end.
In 2021, furniture exports increased by 26.4% year-on-year, including – 3.98% year-on-year in December. In 2021, the cumulative export of furniture and parts was US $73.831 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 26.4%, including US $7.15 billion in December alone, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.98%, compared with us $6.997 billion in November 21, with a month-on-month increase of + 2.18%.
In 2021, the export volume of functional office chairs (rotating seats with adjustable height under customs code 940130) was 33.319 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.2%. In December 2021, the export volume in a single month was 2.758 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 23.7%, compared with 2.921 billion yuan in November, a month-on-month increase of – 5.6%.
In 2021, the cumulative export volume of wooden frame sofa (customs code 940161) was 63.502 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.4%. In December 2021, the export volume of wooden frame sofa was 5.937 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 4.8%, compared with 6.161 billion yuan in November of 21, a month-on-month increase of – 3.6%.
In 2021, metal frame sofas such as functional sofas (customs code 940171) achieved a cumulative export volume of 61.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.7%. In December 2021, the export volume of metal frame sofa was 5.748 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 14.6%, a month-on-month increase of + 3.4% compared with 5.557 billion yuan in November 21.
In 2021, the accumulated export volume of artificial turf (customs code 57033000) was 8.542 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.0%. In December, the export volume reached 766 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 0.8%, compared with 768 million yuan in November, a month-on-month increase of – 0.2%.
In 2021, PVC flooring (customs code 39181090) achieved a cumulative export volume of 43.224 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.2%. The export volume in a single month in December 21 was 4.277 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.2%, compared with 3.680 billion yuan in November 21, a month-on-month increase of + 16.23%.
Affected by shipping, exchange rate and other factors, exports are under pressure in the short term, and are optimistic about the improvement of supply side concentration and the further strengthening of leading competitive advantage in the long term. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern: (1) supply side: in the first half of 2021, the income of listed export enterprises increased significantly and the profit was under pressure. In the second half of 2021, they were still limited by the shortage of shipping capacity, the pressure of raw materials and the pressure of RMB appreciation. The growth rate of subdivided industries in the export sector gradually decreased. Under the long-term high pressure of the industry, the possibility of clearing some small and medium-sized production capacity could not be ruled out, Industry concentration may be further improved; (2) Demand side: the global epidemic broke out in 20 years, and the demand for overseas durable consumer goods continued to increase. Since the second half of 21 years, with the improvement of the epidemic and other effects, overseas production capacity has gradually recovered, and the demand may tend to grow steadily. In the long run, (1) industry level: China has a stable position in the global supply chain and complete supporting facilities for relevant industries, (2) company level: Home export leaders have strong anti risk ability, take the lead in the layout of overseas production capacity, have strong stability of production and supply, and further strengthen the competitive advantage in overseas markets. It is suggested to pay attention to the household leaders [Minhua holding], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ], sub track leaders [ Cocreation Grass Co Ltd(605099) ], and the increased penetration of single products [ Hhc Changzhou Corp(301061) ], [ Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) ], [ Keeson Technology Corporation Limited(603610) ], [ Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) ] and [ Changzhou Kaidi Electrical Inc(605288) ].
Risk tips: epidemic prevention and control is not as expected, exchange rate fluctuations, and international trade policy uncertainty.
