The proportion of new energy power generation has gradually increased, and the policy promotes the development of electrochemical energy storage. Affected by global warming, the continuous consumption of non renewable fossil energy and other factors, the global energy consumption structure is accelerating the transformation to low-carbon. According to the calculation of the global energy Internet cooperation organization, by 2025, the proportion of coal in China’s power generation structure will drop from 66.4% in 2018 to 48.8%, and the proportion of wind power generation will rise to about 20.2%; By 2050, the proportion of coal power generation will drop sharply to 5.7%, and wind power generation will become the main force. The high proportion of new energy such as wind and solar energy is connected to the grid, and its volatility and intermittent problems are prominent. In order to realize the real-time balance between wind and solar power generation and load, energy storage technology is needed to ensure that its power generation remains relatively stable. In recent years, the state and local governments have launched a number of policies to promote the development of new energy storage. Guangdong Province has taken the lead in incorporating the cost of energy storage facilities into the electricity charge sharing of users, which defines the business model for the rapid development of energy storage on the grid side, which is conducive to solving the economic problems of energy storage, improving the enthusiasm of installing energy storage on the grid side, and promoting the benign development of energy storage industry.
The installed scale of electrochemical energy storage is growing rapidly and has a wide range of applications. According to cnesa, by the end of 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of global electrochemical energy storage was 14.2gw, of which the cumulative installed capacity of lithium-ion battery was 13.1gw. The cumulative scale of electrochemical energy storage and lithium-ion battery exceeded 10GW for the first time. In 2020, the newly installed capacity of China’s electrochemical energy storage projects will reach 4.7gw, more than 1.6 times that of the newly put into operation in 2019. China, the United States and Europe dominate the global energy storage market in 2020, accounting for 86% of the total new operation scale in 2020, and the new operation scale has reached GW level. From the perspective of the whole power system, energy storage can be applied to many scenarios, such as power generation side energy storage, transmission and distribution side energy storage and power consumption side energy storage.
Lithium ion battery is the core of electrochemical energy storage, and the demand for PCs is expanding. With the large-scale production of lithium-ion battery, its production process has been continuously improved, and the unit production cost has continued to decline. At present, lithium ion battery has become the mainstream electrochemical energy storage technology. Benefiting from China’s complete photovoltaic industry chain, strong policy support and other favorable factors, Chinese inverter manufacturers are growing rapidly in the global market, and the large-scale layout of new energy by central state-owned enterprises will also promote the development of energy storage industry. The main inverter manufacturers Huawei, Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Sineng Electric Co.Ltd(300827) , guruiwatt, Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) and other companies continue to expand their overall global market share. With the continuous growth of energy storage demand, the market scale of PCs will be further improved in the future.
Investment suggestion: with the rapid development of electrochemical energy storage, companies with core competitiveness in key fields such as energy storage battery, PCs and energy storage system will benefit for a long time. It is recommended to pay attention to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (300274), Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) (002518), Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) (000400).
Risk warning: the growth of energy storage installed capacity is lower than the expected risk; Safety risk of energy storage power station; Risk of changes in the international political situation; Electricity price adjustment risk; The promotion of new technology is less than the expected risk.
