The photovoltaic sector continued to adjust. In this period, the photovoltaic industry decreased by 3.07%, slightly less than the CSI 300 index, and the average daily transaction amount was large month on month. Individual stocks in the sector fell more and rose less, with poor profit-making effect. Jiangsu Zhenjiang Newenergy Equipment Co.Ltd(603507) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Crown Advanced Material Co.Ltd(688560) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) led the increase.
The annual installed capacity of China's photovoltaic in 2021 is slightly lower than the previous market expectation. According to the installed capacity data disclosed by the national energy administration, China's photovoltaic installed capacity in 2021 was 53gw, a year-on-year increase of 9.96%, approaching the historical installed capacity in 2017. On a quarterly basis, the installed PV capacity of 2021q1-q4 in China reached 5.33gw, 7.68gw, 12.55gw and 27.44gw respectively. China's distributed installed capacity was 29.20gw, a year-on-year increase of 88.39%, accounting for 55%. The cumulative installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic in China is 108 million KW, accounting for 1 / 3 of the total installed capacity of photovoltaic grid connection.
The price of the industrial chain stabilized, and the price of silicon material and silicon wafer rebounded. Due to the high operating rate of downstream silicon wafers, the stock preparation in the Spring Festival and the increased acceptance of silicon wafer enterprises, the price of silicon materials rebounded slightly in this period. Silicon wafer enterprises raised their quotations, and the prices of downstream batteries, modules and auxiliary photovoltaic glass were basically stable, reflecting the improvement of downstream demand.
The performance forecast of 2021 is generally good. Among the disclosed performance forecast companies, 70% of the company's performance increased by more than 40%, highlighting the high prosperity of the industry. Among them, the profit growth rate of upstream photovoltaic equipment, silicon material and silicon wafer enterprises is better than that of downstream manufacturing industry. The reasons for performance growth include: good demand and rising product volume and price; The operation scale of photovoltaic power station has increased; Increase in upstream capital expenditure, increase in demand for photovoltaic equipment procurement, etc.
The short-term fed interest rate hike is expected to impact the market, the market risk appetite is reduced, and there are signs of rebound after the continuous decline of the photovoltaic sector. As of January 27, 2022, PE (TTM) of photovoltaic sector was 45.35 times and Pb (LF) was valued at 5.46 times. Considering the industrial conditions, valuation and market sentiment, short-term valuation may still be compressed, but some stocks gradually enter the value range. In the medium term, it is suggested to focus on alleviating the shortage of raw material supply and increasing the demand for photovoltaic installation, and the layout of beneficiary fields, including thermal field materials, photovoltaic glass, integrated module factory and leading enterprises in the field of inverter.
Risk warning: systemic risk; The price decline of raw materials is less than expected; The global installed demand is lower than expected; Periodic supply-demand mismatch, overcapacity and the risk of declining profitability.
