\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (600754)
[matters]
According to China Tourism News Network, OTAs such as Ctrip, Tongcheng travel and qunar have released the 2022 Spring Festival travel trend report. Medium and high-end resort hotels have become the first choice for tourists to book rooms during the Spring Festival holiday. According to the data released by Tongcheng Research Institute, hotels in Shanghai, Beijing, Chongqing, Guangzhou and other cities will usher in the consumption peak of tourists from local and surrounding cities. Among them, theme resort hotels around theme parks, hot springs and skiing are the most popular.
[comment]
The company has the advantages of scale, the geographical distribution is mainly in core cities, and the guest room structure is constantly upgraded. As of 2021Q3, the company had 989 thousand guest rooms, of which 90% were franchisee, 90% of which were located in Chinese mainland, and most of them were in Guangdong, Shanghai and Jiangsu. Among them, the number of rooms in mid-range and economy hotels is 586000 and 403000 respectively, and the number of rooms in mid-range hotels has exceeded that in economy hotels. During the epidemic period, the number of rooms in the company maintained a high growth. From 2020q1 to 2021q3, the number of rooms in mid-range hotels increased by more than 20% year-on-year. We expect that as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, hotels in major cities such as Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou will usher in the consumption peak of tourists from local and surrounding cities, and the company's room occupancy rate and RevPAR are expected to increase.
Compared with the previous profit forecast, due to repeated outbreaks in many places in China in 2021, the overall recovery progress is lower than the previous expectation. Therefore, we lower the assumptions of average room price and occupancy rate from 2021 to 2022, and lower the forecast of revenue and net profit attributable to parent company from 2021 to 2022. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company's revenue will be 11.48 billion yuan, 15.14 billion yuan and 17.18 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.0%, 32.0% and 13.4% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 170 million yuan, 1.41 billion yuan and 2.09 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 57.5%, 713.1% and 48.3% respectively. Corresponding to the current share price, PE is 351.4 times, 43.2 times and 29.1 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
[risk tips]
The growth of the number of rooms in the company was lower than expected.
The progress of epidemic recovery is lower than expected;
Macroeconomic growth was lower than expected.
