\u3000\u3000 Queclink Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(300590) (300590)
[matters]
The company released the performance forecast. In 2021, the company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 155-183 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 71.33% - 102.28%. It is expected to deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 140-167 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 135.28% - 180.66%. Based on the median predicted value of the net profit attributable to the parent company of 169 million yuan, which is slightly lower than our previous expectation.
[comment]
The company's revenue grew rapidly, and Q4's single quarter revenue hit a record high. In 2021, the company's orders for shared travel products broke out, and the market of ordinary vehicle series products was further developed. The company's total sales revenue increased by about 95% year-on-year, and the total sales revenue exceeded RMB 900 million, a year-on-year increase of more than 90%. From this, it can be estimated that the company's single quarter revenue in 2021q4 exceeded 300 million, with a year-on-year increase of more than 76% and a month on month increase of more than 46%, setting a new high of single quarter revenue and excellent growth performance.
Short term factors disturb the company's gross profit margin, and the profitability is expected to rebound in 2022. During the reporting period, due to the fluctuation of US dollar exchange rate, the exchange loss was about 6.5 million yuan. In addition, as the company's products are sold abroad in large quantities and are mostly settled in foreign currencies, the appreciation of RMB will have a certain impact on the company's sales revenue and gross profit margin. At the same time, affected by the epidemic situation and other factors, some core parts purchased by the company are in short supply, causing changes such as price rise, which also has a certain impact on the company's gross profit margin. We believe that as the United States enters the interest rate increase cycle and the expected improvement of upstream supply, the external factors that have a negative impact on the company's income and profitability will be weakened. With the continuous high prosperity of the industry, the company's performance is expected to continue to maintain high-speed growth in 2022.
After years of technology and market experience, it has grown into a platform company, and the road of development will be smoother in the future. After years of market expansion and application field extension, it has accumulated rich technical reserves and industry experience. It has expanded from traditional vehicle, asset and personal positioning and tracking products to shared travel, animal traceability, industrial Internet and other industries, and is progressing smoothly. The income of relevant industries is growing rapidly. We believe that the company has grown into a platform company with good vertical mining and horizontal expansion ability. With the gradual fading out of the market of major overseas competitors, it is expected to become a leading manufacturer of global Internet of things terminals in the future.
There is a huge market space for intelligent electric two wheeled vehicles. The company has the first mover advantage and is expected to benefit. According to the company's public reply on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the company has cooperated with well-known electric vehicle manufacturers in China. Some of the shared series products are used to share the central control unit of scooters to realize the functions of body control, on-off lock, real-time positioning and communication. We believe that the company's products can make electric two wheeled vehicles intelligent, Improve operation efficiency and use experience, which is widely used in European and American short trip scenarios. In addition, according to the company's announcement, as of December 2021, the company has signed purchase orders of more than 270 million yuan with Zhejiang Jinbang for 12 consecutive months. The ordered products are on-board panel control assemblies, and the order scale shows the company's product strength and industry status. The company has been deeply engaged in the field of intelligent electric two wheeled vehicles for many years and has been verified in overseas markets. There is a huge market space for electric two wheeled vehicles in China. According to the data of iResearch's 2021 white paper on intelligent two wheeled electric vehicles in China, the sales volume of electric two wheeled vehicles in China will reach 47.6 million in 2020 and is expected to reach 61 million in 2022, and the intelligent level will continue to improve. Based on overseas successful experience, we believe that the company has the first mover advantage in China's electric two wheeled vehicle market and is expected to benefit directly in the future.
According to the company's performance forecast and future development prospects, we lowered the company's revenue forecast for 2021 and raised the company's revenue forecast for 2022-2023. Therefore, we lowered the profit forecast for 2021 and raised the company's profit forecast for 2022-2023. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 905 million yuan, 1.4 billion yuan and 1.95 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 169 million yuan, 276 million yuan and 389 million yuan, the EPS will be 56 million yuan, 9 million yuan and 1.28 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 49 times, 30 times and 21 times. It is recommended to maintain the "buy" rating. It is suggested to focus on it.
[risk tips]
Upstream supply continues to be tight;
Poor development of emerging business;
Downstream demand has declined due to the impact of the epidemic;
Industry competition intensifies.
