\u3000\u3000 Rockchip Electronics Co.Ltd(603893) (603893)
High quality companies grow at a high speed, and supply chain disturbances gradually fade
On January 26, 2022, the company released the performance express of 2021. The operating revenue of 2021q4 was 662 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.76% and a month on month decrease of 2.50%. The net profit deducted from non parent company was 103 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.90% and a month on month decrease of 18.25%. Considering the opportunity of the times given to the company by the aiot of electronic terminals and the great pressure on the supply chain and overseas demand caused by the superposition of overseas epidemics, we lowered the profit forecast for 2021 and raised the profit forecast for 2022 and 2023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 603 / 901 / 1164 million yuan (the original value is 632 / 882 / 1158 million yuan respectively) and EPS will be 1.45/2.16/2.79 yuan, The current share price corresponds to 74.2 / 49.7 / 38.4 times PE. Considering that the company’s supply chain pressure in 2021 is expected to be effectively relieved in 2022, the “buy” rating is maintained.
Equity incentive is implemented, and the high exercise price shows the company’s confidence
With the acceleration of semiconductor localization and substitution, whether enough high-quality talents can be absorbed significantly affects the development speed of semiconductor design companies. In 2021, the amortized share based payment expense of the company was 114.96 million yuan, which mobilized the initiative, enthusiasm and creativity of the company’s employees. On January 26, 2022, the company issued the draft of equity incentive. The company set the exercise price of stock options granted for the first time as 121.04 yuan / share, which was significantly higher than the closing price of 107.37 yuan / share on January 27, 2022, which demonstrated the company’s confidence in its future growth ability.
The enrichment of product categories is the driving force of performance growth, and the impact of production capacity will greatly suppress the performance in 2021
In terms of product expansion, in 2021, the company launched new products such as machine vision chip rv11xx and intelligent application processor rk356x to achieve large-scale mass production, further expand the company’s customer base and application scenarios, and bring new impetus to the company’s performance growth. In terms of supply chain, the tight supply chain of the industry makes the production capacity supply of the company’s main OEM fail to grow when the demand increases sharply, resulting in the actual negative growth of production capacity in 2021. With the large-scale mass production of rk3588 series chips and the gradual relief of supply chain pressure, we expect the company’s performance to achieve rapid growth in 2022.
Risk warning: there is a risk of continuous tightening of upstream capacity; There is great uncertainty in the speed of customer introduction; There is uncertainty in the research and development progress of new products.
