\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957)
Event:
The company released the performance forecast on January 26. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 820-890 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 50.9% – 63.8%; It is expected to realize a net profit of RMB 770-840 million, a year-on-year increase of 50.2% – 63.9%; Q4 is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 460-530 million yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 41.6% – 62.9%, and the performance maintains rapid growth.
Comments:
“Winona” brand strength is consolidated, and the effect of large single product strategy is remarkable
In 2021, the market share of Winona, the company’s main brand, in the dermatology level skin care market increased to 22.5%, the brand strength continued to be consolidated, and the effect of large single product strategy was remarkable. In 2021, double eleven Winona ranked the top ten of Tmall beauty care and skin care products for fourth consecutive years, and the first brand of domestic products. Among them, the largest single product, Shu min moisturizing and special cream, the total sales volume of the whole network was 4 million bottles +, the new product was slow repair and freeze-drying mask, and the total sales volume of the whole network exceeded 2 million boxes. The core products of the company are growing rapidly, while the advanced demand for sensitive muscle groups, such as sunscreen and freeze-dried mask, is accelerating.
Tiktok and other emerging channels, the offline synergy continues to release.
The company’s online fine operation ability and diversified layout promoted the rapid growth of sales: in 2021, the sales of Winona tmall flagship store increased by 13% year-on-year, of which the cumulative sales increased by 65% year-on-year during the promotion period of the 11th National Congress of the Communist Party of China; Meanwhile, the company effectively responded to the trend of online traffic diversification, and the volume of tiktok channels increased by -0.44/0.38/1.01/2.09 billion yuan. In terms of offline channels, the company is further expanding Watson / Xiran and other new channels, and diverting traffic to private areas through public and entity counters, so as to improve user stickiness and reduce customer acquisition costs.
The incubation of new brands has been continuously promoted to build a healthy skin ecology
In 2021, the incubation of the company’s new brand made progress. Winona baby focused on the blue ocean market of infant skin care for 0-12 years old, achieved good performance in offline channel promotion, and was listed in the top 10 of tmall infant skin care on double 11. It is expected that the brand is expected to accelerate the promotion of all channels in 2022. Meanwhile, in 2022, the company plans to launch a new anti-aging high-end brand. It is expected that the brand will continue Winona’s brand growth path, reflect the professional tone with offline medical and beauty institutions as the channel, and then gradually expand to all channels. In the medium and long term, with the continuous upgrading of the company’s product strength and brand strength, it is also expected to realize internationalization through mergers and acquisitions and going to sea in the future, so as to further open up market space.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Considering that the company has a stable image and smooth expansion of skin care products of Dermatology grade, and the multi brand strategy is ready to take off and contribute to the second growth pole, we expect that the company’s EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.96 yuan, 2.70 yuan and 3.61 yuan respectively, corresponding to 83 / 60 / 45 times of the current share price PE respectively. With comprehensive reference to the valuation of comparable companies Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) and Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , we give the company 70 times of PE in 2022, Corresponding to the target price of 189.00 yuan, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Online cosmetics competition intensifies; The expansion of new brands is less than expected; Channel expansion was less than expected.
