\u3000\u3000 Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) (002129)
Event: Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) release the performance forecast of 2021.
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.8-4.2 billion yuan, and the performance exceeded the market expectation. On January 27, 2021, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the revenue in 2021 will be 40-42 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 109.90% ~ 120.39%, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.8-4.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 248.95% ~ 285.68%, and the net profit deducted from the non attributable to the parent company will be 3.5-3.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 267.38% ~ 309.37%. According to the calculation of performance forecast, 2021q4 company achieved revenue of 10.9-12.9 billion yuan and net profit attributable to parent company of 1.04-1.44 billion yuan. Based on the median value of 1.24 billion yuan, the month on month ratio of 2021q3 was basically the same. Considering that the silicon wafer industry took the initiative to reduce the operating rate and quotation from the end of November and played against the high silicon material price, the profit of the silicon wafer industry was significantly damaged month on month ratio, The company's 2021q4 profit is flat, indicating that the production cost of Zhonghuan silicon wafer continues to be optimized and the technology iteration is leading the industry.
The industrial chain has stabilized, the quotation of silicon wafer has increased rapidly, and the industry profit has been significantly repaired. With the significant improvement of downstream demand month on month, the current industrial chain price has gradually stabilized, and the quotation of silicon wafer has rebounded significantly. According to the price of silicon wafer released on January 26, G1 \\ M6 \\ M10 \\ G12 silicon wafer (160) μ The quotation of m thickness) is 5.4, 5.3, 6.4 and 8.55 yuan / piece respectively, which is 3-9% higher than the official quotation of Longji on January 16. Judging from the overall quotation, the profit of silicon wafer has been significantly repaired. According to the calculation, the profit of single watt has recovered to the range of 7-9 points / W, the short-term profit impact caused by the price of silicon material has been gradually eliminated, and the competition pattern of the industry is still relatively high-quality; From the perspective of quotation structure, the price of G1 single watt is significantly higher than that of other sizes, indicating that in the process of the current transformation of the industry to large size, the small size is still supported by the demand of specific overseas markets and is relatively strong, and the company's Small-size production capacity will not become an obvious burden.
Continue to promote the progress of technological iteration and build a technological moat. The company continued to strengthen the silicon wafer production technology. During the reporting period, the production efficiency of a single furnace was leading in the industry, and the silicon material consumption rate per unit product decreased significantly year-on-year. Through the improvement of thin line and thin sheet process, the silicon wafer yield and product a rate increased significantly; In addition, by deepening the application of industrial 4.0, the per capita labor productivity has been greatly improved, the product quality and consistency have been continuously improved, and the consumption of raw materials and auxiliary materials has been effectively improved. The company has driven the cost down through technical iteration, and the strength and effectiveness have exceeded the market expectations.
Share repurchases demonstrate the company's confidence in growth. Under the background of continuously improving technical capability and building a moat, the company issued a share repurchase plan on January 11, which plans to use 355 ~ 391 million yuan to repurchase the company's shares to implement employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive, and the repurchase price shall not exceed 61.55 yuan / share. On January 13, the implementation of the repurchase plan was completed, with a total repurchase of 9.52 million shares, accounting for 0.29% of the total share capital and a total transaction amount of 391 million yuan, Demonstrate the company's great confidence in future growth.
Profit forecast: the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 4.141/56.18/7.108 billion from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to 31.2/23.0/18.2 times of the valuation, and maintain the rating of "overweight".
Risk tip: the industry demand is lower than expected, and the price of silicon wafer is lower than expected.
