\u3000\u3000 Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) (300982)
The annual performance forecast is in line with expectations, and the EPCO business of power distribution and consumption continues to increase. The company announced that the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 280-320 million yuan in 2021, with a simultaneous increase of 19% – 36% (median 28%), which is in line with the expectation; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 270-310 million yuan, an increase of 28% – 47% (median 38%), and the operating performance continued to grow rapidly. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 was 79-120 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of – 11% to + 35% (median 12%), and the median performance growth rate was basically the same as that in Q3; In Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was RMB 30-123 million in a single quarter, an increase of 0% – 49% (median 25%). In 2021, the company continued to give full play to the advantages of EPCO integrated service for power distribution and consumption, and actively developed new businesses such as photovoltaic and electrical equipment. At the same time, with the enhancement of brand strength after listing, the development of business markets outside Jiangsu Province accelerated, driving the rapid growth of profits.
The upgrading of power engineering qualification strengthens the core advantages of EPCO and opens up a new space for business growth. Recently, the company announced that the general contracting qualification of power engineering construction has been upgraded from level III to level II, which can undertake power generation projects with a single unit capacity of 200000 kW and below Construction of 220 kV and below power transmission lines and substation projects with the same voltage level (previously, class III qualification can only undertake the construction of power generation projects with single unit capacity of 100000 kW and below, 110 kV and below power transmission lines and substation projects with the same voltage level). The new qualification is expected to strengthen the core advantages of the company’s power distribution EPCO integrated service, improve the company’s business undertaking capacity of medium and large-scale power generation projects, distribution network and substation projects, and open a new space for business growth.
The development of intelligent photovoltaic industry is accelerated to accelerate the growth of the company’s new photovoltaic business. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other five ministries and commissions have issued the action plan for the innovation and development of intelligent photovoltaic industry (2021-2025), which plans to help achieve peak carbon and carbon neutrality in all fields by actively promoting intelligent photovoltaic. In terms of photovoltaic industry, “encourage the construction of photovoltaic application projects such as industrial parks and new industrial demonstration bases”, “encourage the construction of industrial green microgrid, and realize the integrated applications of plant photovoltaic, distributed wind power, diversified energy storage and intelligent energy management and control system”; In terms of photovoltaic buildings, “encourage new government investment in public welfare buildings and promote Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) roof system”. At present, the company’s photovoltaic business continues to advance smoothly, has accumulated rich photovoltaic technology reserves and construction and operation experience, and has established strategic cooperation with large photovoltaic manufacturers Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) . Relying on rich industrial, commercial and public utility customer resources, the company can recommend customers to install distributed photovoltaic + household energy storage facilities in the preliminary design and scheme communication link, Photovoltaic business has a strong ability to obtain orders, which is expected to continue to benefit from the development wave of China’s intelligent photovoltaic industry.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 3.0/4.0/530 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28% / 33% / 30%, EPS will be RMB 2.17/2.88/3.75 respectively, CAGR will be 30% from 2020 to 2023, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 28 / 21 / 16 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the competition in the power industry intensifies the risk, the development of new energy business is less than expected, the implementation of industrial policies is less than expected, and the risk of core talent loss.
