\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957)
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years will be 820-890 million yuan, an increase of 50.87% - 63.75%, the median value will be 855 million yuan, an increase of 57.31%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction will be 770-840 million yuan, the median value will be 805 million yuan, an increase of 57.02%. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 will be 460-530 million yuan, with a median value of 500 million yuan, an increase of 52.25% at the same time, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction will be 440-510 million yuan, with a median value of 470 million yuan, an increase of 48.89% at the same time. The popularity of the company's products and brands will be further improved to promote market development, slightly exceeding market expectations. The non recurring profit and loss of 21 years was 45-55 million yuan, mainly due to the investment income obtained from cash management with idle funds and the government subsidies received.
On the revenue side, we expect the revenue to maintain a high-speed growth in 21 years. 1) on the channel side, the channel of online flagship store has achieved good results, and it is estimated that the growth rate of Q4 online will be higher than that of offline; 2) On the brand side, it is expected that Winona will still provide the main revenue contribution and continue to achieve high growth. Winona baby21's double 11 performance is excellent, and many brands are developing rapidly.
On the profit side, the profitability has been continuously improved. It is speculated that the main reasons are as follows: 1) continue to strengthen the strong logic of brand and operation core. During the double 11, we adopt the way of super head detonating large single products + brand marketing and strengthening the long tail effect for sales, and the net interest rate is expected to increase; 2) The company's sales and production scale expanded rapidly, and the large-scale efficiency was improved.
Looking to the future: short term: 2022 ① Winona: create increment by accelerating circle breaking with Shumin + sunscreen and whitening, and fine operation at the end of the canal; In 22 years, the product side is expected to continue to launch, reserve and develop a generation around "Shumin +", and the channel side will gradually try to carry out member service and brand display in the flagship store of the mall. ② Aoxmed: focusing on skin anti-aging, with scientific excellence and high-end quality, three products were registered at the end of December. ③ Winona baby22 is expected to continue to promote product upgrading, and the channel end will be pushed from neonatal pediatrics and confinement Institute to online expansion. ④ Beautyanswers positioning accurate repair, step by step, is expected to enable non-public channels.
Long term: with high growth, the company has anchored the large cosmetics market. On the one hand, the company continues to build brand links from multiple dimensions of channels, marketing, products and brands, continuously precipitates brand strength, has clear ideas for brand building, and accelerates the promotion; On the other hand, relying on Yunnan's rich plant resources, Yunnan provincial laboratories are taking the lead to build an incubation platform, research and develop raw materials for a long time, expand the application boundary of plant extraction, actively accumulate core technologies and expand to the upstream, which is expected to build an ecological kingdom of skin health with endogenous + extension.
Investment suggestion: with the mission of "building China's skin health ecology" and based on dermatology theory, the company has a deep insight into consumer needs, continuously improved the product matrix and promoted the multi brand strategy. Under the uncertainty of industry channels, the strong brand + strong operation advantages have been strengthened. Since 19 years, the company has ranked first in the dermatology market On the basis of maintaining advantages, endogenous extension anchors the cosmetics market. The company released the performance forecast for 2021. The profit forecast for 21 years was raised from 814 million yuan to 855 million yuan. The net profit for 21-23 years is expected to be 855 / 11.7 / 1.53 billion yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; The cost of getting customers increases rapidly; Changes in preferential tax policies; The advance notice is only the preliminary accounting data. Please refer to the annual report
