\u3000\u3000 Glodon Company Limited(002410) (002410)
Investment Event: on January 27, 2022, the company issued a performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 650-700 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 96.74% - 111.87%; It is expected to realize a net profit of about 622-672 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.32% - 122.90%.
The cost cloud transformation accelerated the closure and promoted the steady growth of revenue: during the reporting period, the company's digital cost business cloud transformation covered the whole country, and the conversion rate of the new transformation region and the renewal rate of the old transformation region were both improved. We believe that the experience accumulated by the company's cloud transformation in the past few years has enabled the cloud transformation in the last four regions of 21h1 company to achieve positive growth in revenue in the current period. The satisfaction of existing transformation stock customers with cost cloud products has been continuously improved, and the driving renewal rate has also been improved. At the same time, the company continued to polish the engineering information service products represented by guangcai.com and Guangcai digital gathering, and promoted the significant growth of value-added services such as engineering information. The comprehensive cloud transformation of cost business will promote the stable growth of the company's revenue and will open a new stage of cost business.
Contract expansion and delivery of construction business have been paid close attention to, and the quality of customer penetration has been continuously improved: since 21q3, the company's construction business has entered the delivery period of early-stage contracts. While ensuring the delivery of existing contracts, the company still pays close attention to the needs of customers for digital transformation, actively expands contract orders, and achieves both contract expansion and delivery. In terms of customer penetration, the company also increased the penetration of project-level single products and the coverage of enterprise level solutions, and achieved breakthroughs in key customers and key regions. We believe that the company's construction business has both breadth and depth in expanding customers, and has better proved its delivery ability. In the future, as the second growth curve of the company, the construction business will show strong growth and bring better elasticity to the company's revenue.
The digitalization of internal management has been improved, and the per capita efficiency has been continuously improved: on the cost side, the company has accelerated the transformation of "digital Glodon Company Limited(002410) ", promoted the construction of LTC (lead to cash), ITR (issue to resolution) and other processes of major businesses, successively launched digital human resources and digital financial systems, improved the comprehensive budget management system from strategy to implementation, and made reasonable expenses, Continue to improve per capita efficiency. We believe that the digitalization of internal management and standardization of process have effectively reduced the operating cost, made the resource allocation more reasonable, and had a positive impact on the company's performance growth.
The 14th five year plan for the development of the construction industry defines the development plan for the modernization of the construction industry, and the company will continue to benefit. On January 25, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the 14th five year plan for the development of the construction industry, which specifies that by 2035, the development quality and efficiency of the construction industry should be greatly improved, the construction industrialization should be fully realized, and the construction quality should be significantly improved. Specifically, in the 14th five year plan During this period, the plan clearly puts forward the specific planning objectives of the modernization of the construction industry, including seven tasks, such as accelerating the coordinated development of intelligent construction and new construction industrialization, and improving the operation mechanism of the construction market. As a leading digital service provider in the construction industry, the company has always been committed to enabling all aspects of the construction industry chain by digital means. The launch of the 14th five year plan for the development of the construction industry will provide clearer development guidelines for all business lines of the company and further expand the huge, all-round and all-dimensional market space for digital solutions in the construction industry. Therefore, the company will continue to benefit from the guidance of this plan and realize the coordinated and rapid development of the whole line.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.216 billion yuan / 6.551 billion yuan / 8.263 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 657 million yuan / 983 million yuan / 1.401 billion yuan respectively, the EPS will be 0.55 yuan / 0.83 yuan / 1.18 yuan respectively, and the corresponding P / E will be 111 / 74 / 52 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the prosperity of the construction industry is declining and the informatization progress is less than expected; The release rhythm of construction business needs is delayed; The breakthrough of digital design business technology has encountered bottlenecks.
