\u3000\u3000 Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) (688499)
Event overview
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 209 million yuan to 232 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 48.51% to 64.84%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 199 million yuan to 222 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 59.87% to 78.29%.
Analysis and judgment:
Multiple factors help the company's performance growth
In 2021q4, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 52 million yuan to 75 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.48% to 55.28% and a month-on-month increase of 7.32% to 59.47%; It is expected to realize the net profit of deducting non parent company from 47 million yuan to 70 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of - 11.05% to 28.51% and a month on month change of - 14.14% to 27.58%. The reasons for the change of the company's performance mainly include:
1) the new application scenarios of lithium batteries in the world have expanded rapidly, the markets of two wheeled electric vehicles, household energy storage, industrial UAVs and electric tools have continued to grow, and the demand for equipment such as cell detection and cell assembly has increased. The company actively cooperated with ATL, a global lithium battery leading enterprise, and the relevant production line equipment provided for it was verified by mass production in 2021, with a large increase in sales revenue.
2) in 2021, the company's production capacity increased significantly, new equipment assembly workshops were put into use one after another, the recruitment of production personnel was expanded, and the shipment of lithium battery equipment (including power lithium battery production line equipment) maintained an increase. Benefiting from the preferential policy of immediate collection and refund of value-added tax on software products, the amount of software tax rebate of the company has increased significantly. 3) The company has profound technology accumulation and stable customer resources, and the comprehensive gross profit margin of products remains stable.
The proposed issuance of convertible bonds helps to extend technology, and the competitiveness of products is expected to be further enhanced
The company announced on January 4 that it plans to issue convertible corporate bonds to unspecified objects, and the total amount of funds raised shall not exceed 950 million yuan. After deducting the issuance expenses, the funds raised are intended to be used for the industrialization project of special aircraft in the front and middle of lithium battery and complete sets of equipment for the whole line and supplement working capital, It helps to further improve the company's order delivery capacity and product competitiveness: 1) the company has multiple process modules involved in coater, die-cutting machine, lamination machine, winding machine, cell assembly line, battery assembly line, etc. This fund-raising can significantly improve the company's whole line equipment delivery capacity and enrich the company's product series; 2) The company will further improve the supply capacity of front and middle section equipment such as coater, lamination / winding machine and undertake the demand of new orders.
The downstream industry continues to enjoy a high boom, with high order growth and strong certainty
In 2021, the market penetration of new energy vehicles and energy storage increased, the installed capacity of power batteries increased, and the head battery manufacturers continued to benefit ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) released a performance forecast that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 14 billion yuan to 16.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 150.75% to 195.52%, and the expected performance increased in the same direction). The high outlook of the downstream industry boosted the demand for lithium battery equipment. As one of the leading enterprises in China's lithium battery manufacturing equipment industry, the company has established long-term and stable cooperative relations with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) and other well-known manufacturers. In June and August 2021, the company signed cooperation agreements with Byd Company Limited(002594) and honeycomb energy respectively, and its position in the supply chain system of various enterprises has been continuously improved. In 2021, the company obtained the order and bid winning notice of nearly 5 billion yuan of power lithium battery. The company deeply tied major customers, with high increase of orders and strong certainty in the future.
Investment advice
We maintain the previous earnings forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the revenue in 2021-2023 will be RMB 2.251/45.56/6.012 billion respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 214 / 4.67/748 million, the corresponding EPS will be RMB 2.43/5.31/8.50 respectively, the corresponding closing price of RMB 251.5/share on January 27, 2022, and the PE in 21-23 will be 103 / 47 / 30 times respectively. We have not given a rating yet.
Risk tips
Product R & D is less than expected, the prosperity of downstream industries is less than expected, and the fund-raising progress of convertible bonds to be issued is less than expected.
