\u3000\u3000 Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) (688239)
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 88.47%, and the operating revenue increased by about 40% year-on-year, realizing rapid growth
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected that the operating revenue will increase by about 40% compared with the previous year. In the fourth quarter of a single year, it is expected to achieve a revenue of 311 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42%, benefiting from the increased market and customer demand in the downstream aviation, aerospace, gas turbine and energy equipment fields, and the company’s business scale will continue to grow. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be about 137 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about + 88.47%; It is expected to realize a net profit of about 122 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about + 73.49%. The amount of government subsidies included in non recurring profits and losses of the company in 2021 was about 18.27 million yuan, an increase of about 8.88 million yuan over the previous year. Under the large-scale effect, the company further reduced costs and increased efficiency, and further improved its profitability.
The new generation of aeroengines under development are expected to help the company enter the track of long-term and high-speed growth
China’s aeroengine models under development are accelerating into batch production: February 2021 Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) announcement: Guizhou Liyang “third generation medium thrust aeroengine production line construction project” has passed the completion acceptance; During the Zhuhai Air Show in September 2021, Tang Changhong, chief engineer of yun20, said that yun20 had two types of “Chinese heart”, and sun Cong, chief engineer of Shipborne aircraft, said that the new generation of Shipborne aircraft would be seen within the year. We judge that a number of new aircraft engines in China are in the accelerated landing period of batch production of research models, medium thrust engines and large bypass ratio turbofan engines are gradually in large quantities, and the domestic engine pedigree is gradually improved, promoting the accelerated finalization and installation of new types of nuclear equipment such as a new generation of Shipborne aircraft and transport aircraft.
The company has participated in the synchronous development of ring forgings of many pre researched and under researched aeroengines in China, including a new generation of military aeroengines and Changjiang series domestic commercial aeroengines. We believe that the aeroengine development cycle is long, and the company enters the market relatively late compared with its main competitors. The research participation and water share of parts and components in the new generation of aeroengine models are expected to be improved compared with mature models, which is expected to benefit more fully from the new type of Aeroengine entering the mass production period and entering the long-term high-speed growth track.
The impact of the epidemic has gradually decreased, and the resumption of overseas orders is expected
Overseas business has declined significantly since 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic, with a revenue of 130 million in 2020, down 43.9% compared with 2019. We expect that with the covid-19 epidemic gradually controlled worldwide, overseas civil aviation engine business orders are expected to gradually recover.
Raise funds to expand core production capacity and promote the digital upgrading of aviation forging system
The investment project raised by the company’s IPO is mainly used for the construction of precision manufacturing industrial park of special alloy ring rolled forgings for aeroengines and gas turbines. The construction period of the project is two years. After two years of operation, the project will reach full production. After reaching the production capacity, it is expected to increase the sales revenue of 1161641300 yuan per year and increase the average annual net profit of 184776000 yuan (including the construction period of two years). We believe that the new capacity will continue to help the company increase the scale of operating revenue, reduce production costs, optimize the company’s financial indicators, and further improve profitability and market share.
Profit forecast and rating: we believe that the company’s main business will benefit from the accelerated assembly and upgrading of our military’s aviation equipment during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and is expected to maintain rapid growth in the next three years; At the same time, with the landing of domestic large aircraft projects and the reduction of the impact of the epidemic on the overseas commercial aviation market, the company’s ring forgings and other businesses in the commercial direction are expected to achieve leapfrog volume. Under this assumption, we expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be increased from 1.26/1.75/2.50 to 142 / 218 / 325 million yuan, and the corresponding P / E will be adjusted to 56.09/36.53/24.45x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: risks with high customer concentration; The risk of declining market competitiveness; Risk of fluctuations in the company’s military products business; Risk of raw material supply; The risk that the progress and income of the raised investment project do not meet the expectations; The performance forecast is the preliminary calculation result, and the specific financial data shall be subject to the disclosure announcement of the company.
