\u3000\u3000 Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) (000983)
Event: on January 27, 2022, the company released a performance forecast that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 3.815 billion yuan to 4.402 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 95.0% ~ 125.0%.
The release of performance in the fourth quarter of 2021 was slightly lower than expected. According to the calculation of the announcement, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 641 ~ 1238 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 80.56% ~ 248.73% and a month on month change of – 47.89% ~ 0.65%, slightly lower than the market expectation. According to the announcement, on the one hand, the profit of the company’s coal sector increased significantly due to rising prices; On the other hand, the company’s power sector and building materials sector increased losses due to the rising cost of fuel coal, making the performance release slightly lower than expected.
Continue to acquire the assets of controlling shareholders. In 2020, the company completed the acquisition of Shuiyu Coal Industry and Tenghui coal industry.
On January 16, 2022, the company announced that it planned to purchase 51% equity of Huajin coking coal held by coking coal group and 49% equity of Mingzhu coal held by Li Jinyu and Gao Jianping by issuing shares and paying cash. According to the announcement, the total production capacity of Huajin coking coal is 11.1 million tons / year, and the main assets are Shaqu No. 1 mine (4.5 million tons / year), Shaqu No. 2 mine (2.7 million tons / year), Mingzhu coal industry (production capacity of 900000 tons / year, Huajin coking coal holding 51%), Jining coal industry (production capacity of 3 million tons / year, Huajin coking coal holding 51%). After the equity acquisition, the company’s equity production capacity will increase by 5.13 million tons / year. As of the first half of 2021, the company’s equity production capacity was 32.57 million tons / year. After the acquisition, the scale of the company’s equity production capacity increased by 15.7%.
The prelude to asset injection is opened, and the growth of capacity extension can be expected. In February 2021, Shanxi Guoyun held an assessment and signing meeting of “one enterprise and one policy” for provincial enterprises, and put forward the goal of “asset securitization rate of more than 80% for provincial enterprises”. According to the prospectus of the group’s bonds, by the end of 2020, the group had a total coal production capacity of 207 million tons, including 131 million tons of main mine production capacity. After excluding the production capacity of listed companies and the production capacity of Shanmei group (the main assets are Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) ), there are still about 44.8 million tons of production capacity, which has the possibility of asset securitization, and the space for asset injection is still broad.
Investment suggestion: adjust the profit forecast according to the performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.398 billion yuan, 5.864 billion yuan and 6.249 billion yuan (excluding this asset acquisition), the corresponding EPS will be 1.07/1.43/1.53 yuan / share, and the corresponding PE will be 8 times, 6 times and 5 times respectively (based on the share price on January 27, 2022). The valuation in the industry is relatively low. Maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: coal prices have fallen sharply; The group’s asset injection is less than expected; There is still uncertainty in the ongoing asset acquisition, and the asset acquisition still needs to raise no more than 4.4 billion yuan. Therefore, EPS has the risk of further dilution.
