\u3000\u3000 Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) (601666)
Q4 growth benefits from the price rise of coking coal, and the future performance is expected to continue to improve. Maintain "buy" rating
The company released the performance forecast, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.875 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 107%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 2.879 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97%. Throughout the year, the company's performance increased significantly, mainly benefiting from the strengthening of coal prices and the continuous release of economies of scale under the clean coal strategy. In a single quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 is expected to be 1.11 billion yuan, an increase of 55.8% month on month, thanks to the price increase of coking coal long-term association of Q4 company and the release of performance flexibility, but it is lower than previously expected, mainly due to the large increase of Q4 cost. According to the performance forecast, we lowered the profit forecast for 2021 and maintained the forecast for 2022-2023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-2023 will be 28.8 (previous value of 39.1) / 73.2/8.15 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 107% / 155% / 11%, and EPS will be 1.22 (previous value of 1.66) / 3.12/3.47 yuan; The current share price corresponds to 8.0 / 3.1 / 2.8 times PE. The company maintains a high proportion of coking coal long-term association, benefiting from the continuous high price operation of coking coal long-term association, and the company's performance is expected to be released steadily. Maintain the "buy" rating.
The high increase of coal price is not afraid of the decline of annual production and sales, and Q4 volume and price increase
Annual coal sales fell year-on-year. In 2021, the annual coal production / sales volume reached 28.85/30.65 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% / 2.7%, of which the self-produced coal sales volume was 26.59 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%. Q4 single quarter production and sales increased month on month. Q4 single quarter production / sales volume was 7.14/7.7 million tons, with a month on month increase of 4.2% / 6.3%, and the sales volume of self-produced coal was 6.65 million tons, with a month on month increase of 8%. Coal prices rose year-on-year and Q4 rose sharply month on month. In 2021, the average price per ton of coal (excluding tax) was 916 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 34%, of which the average price of Q4 ton of coal rose to 1235 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of 35.3%, mainly benefiting from Q4 company's sharp increase in the long-term agreement price of coking coal. The cost has increased year-on-year, and the cost pressure of Q4 tons of coal is large. The annual cost per ton of coal was 637 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 30.6%; Among them, Q4 was 831 yuan / ton, an increase of 31.3% month on month, which was a drag on the release of performance elasticity. The profitability of coal increased significantly. The annual gross profit per ton of coal was 279 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 43.3%; Among them, the gross profit of Q4 tons of coal reached 404 yuan / ton, an increase of 44.4% month on month, realizing a single quarter gross profit of 3.11 billion yuan, an increase of 1.08 billion yuan month on month.
Coking coal high long-term association price will continue, optimistic about the release of the company's performance
Throughout 2022, coking coal fundamentals may still be dominated by tight balance. In terms of supply, the Australian coal embargo may continue, the supply of high-quality main coking coal in the market is relatively scarce, and the increment of coking coal origin in China is limited; In terms of demand, the intensity of steel production restriction is relatively loose compared with 2021q4 or as a whole. Considering that the macroeconomic countercyclical regulation policy puts forward the advance investment in infrastructure, the demand performance of the whole year may still be resilient. Coking coal prices are expected to be supported and run at a relatively high level. According to the information of the company's interactive platform, the long-term cooperative price of coking coal of 2022q1 company remains at the high level of 2021q4, and the high profit of a single quarter is expected to continue. We are optimistic about the annual performance growth in 2022. In terms of dividends, based on the minimum dividend rate of 60%, it is estimated that the total dividend in 2021 will reach 1.73 billion yuan, with a dividend rate of 0.73 yuan per share, corresponding to the latest closing price of 7.5%, and the high dividend rate of high score red is still attractive.
Risk tip: demand growth is less than expected; Coal prices fell more than expected; Increased security inspection led to production suspension and reduction
