As of January 25, the pre holiday stock is about to end, and the market situation in Yuncheng production area is basically stable.
On January 25, the Xinhua China (Yuncheng) apple price index reported 1185.02 points, down 2.03 points or 0.17% from the previous period; Compared with the base period, it rose 185.02 points, or 18.50%
Figure 1 Xinhua China (Yuncheng) apple price index trend
Data source: Xinhua index
According to the index monitoring, as of January 25, the average price of Fuji apple with paper film 80 and 85 specifications was 2.28 yuan / kg, the average price of Fuji apple with film bag 80 and 85 specifications was 1.37 yuan / kg, the average price of Fuji apple with paper bag 75 specifications was 3.22 yuan / kg, and the average price of Fuji apple with paper bag 80 and 85 specifications was 3.50 yuan / kg.
The survey shows that at present, fruit farmers in Yuncheng production area mainly ship goods at a favorable price. Under the control of the epidemic situation, the number of merchants purchasing from the place of origin recently has decreased compared with the same period of previous years. The Spring Festival stock preparation is coming to an end, merchants begin to retreat one after another, and the remaining merchants purchase on demand. Under the high price market, merchants still mainly send their own sources of packaging to the market. The transaction volume of fruit and agricultural goods is small. The actual transaction is based on quality and price, and the overall delivery speed is general
Table 1 average price of all specifications in Yuncheng production area (2022.1.19-1.25)
Unit: yuan / Jin
Data source: Xinhua index
In terms of the national spot market, the stock preparation before the festival is coming to an end, the production areas ship goods in an orderly manner, and the delivery of goods in the wholesale market in the sales areas has improved. In terms of the production area market, the Spring Festival stock season is coming to an end, the fruit farmers' psychology of shipping at a favorable price has been significantly enhanced, and the market-oriented sales have gradually become the mainstream. Merchants replenish goods on demand and have general purchasing enthusiasm. Some merchants have begun to withdraw from the production area. Under the influence of the high price market in the place of origin, merchants mainly pack their own sources of goods and send them to the market, and some purchase low-cost fruit and agricultural goods.
According to Zhuo Chuang information, as of January 20, the national cold storage storage capacity of origin was about 7.7813 million tons, a decrease of 4413 thousand tons compared with January 13. Among them, the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi was about 58.9%, down 3.5 percentage points from the previous period; The storage capacity ratio of Shandong was about 55.9%, down 3.1 percentage points from the previous period
Table 2 weekly prices of apples in some main production areas (2022.1.16-1.22)
Unit: yuan / Jin
Note: Green font indicates a decrease compared with the previous period, red indicates an increase compared with the previous period, and black indicates a flat compared with the previous period
Data source: Zhuo Chuang information
In the wholesale market of the sales area, the arrival volume of gift box loading source has increased significantly, and the overall inventory is relatively sufficient. The boost effect of the Spring Festival has appeared, and the delivery situation of apple market has improved compared with the previous period. However, the trading volume of alternative fruits such as cherizi, strawberry and sugar orange has increased significantly, which is expected to still have a certain impact on the delivery of apple
Table 3 average price of domestic fruits in Jiaxing fruit market, Zhejiang - Red Fuji (part) (as of January 25, 2022)
Unit: yuan / Jin
Data source: Zhejiang Jiaxing fruit market official website
In the futures market, apple futures prices fluctuated. As of January 25, ap2203 contract closed at 8760 yuan / ton, up 319 yuan / ton or 3.78% from January 18.
Overall, the Spring Festival stock demand is still the main factor supporting the origin market in the near future. However, it should be noted that the goods preparation before the festival is coming to an end, the favorable factors of the holidays are gradually digested, and the impact of the spread of the epidemic in various places is superimposed, so the space for the rise of the market may be relatively limited. Under the influence of comprehensive factors, it is expected that the recent origin market will be stable.
Therefore, it is suggested that fruit farmers and traders ship goods in time to avoid excessive sales pressure in the later stage. In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to the de stocking and market delivery.
Xinhua - China (Yuncheng) apple price index is jointly compiled and released by China economic information agency and Yuncheng Municipal People's Government of Shanxi Province. According to the Compilation Rules, the index takes October 15, 2015 as the base period and 1000 basis points, which aims to objectively reflect the price trend of Yuncheng apple (Red Fuji) and provide pricing reference and decision support for the market.
