Another trading day is the Spring Festival holiday, and the A-share market reproduces the pre holiday “burnt green” syndrome. The three major indexes fell across the board, and the gem index fell by more than 3%.
On January 27, the three major A-share indexes continued to weaken and collectively closed down by more than 1%. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.78% to 3394.25 points and fell 3400 points; The Shenzhen composite index fell 2.77% to 13398.84 points, and the gem index fell 3.25% to 2906.76 points; The total turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 822.9 billion yuan; The net sales of northbound funds were 14.624 billion yuan; Overall, stocks in the two cities generally fell.
In terms of industry sector, from the perspective of Shenwan industry, all industries are in a downward trend. Among them, coal and banking industries had the smallest decline, less than 1%, while the computer industry led the decline, reaching 5.27%.
The popular sectors were also wiped out and fell collectively. Covid-19 pharmaceutical, banking and other sectors performed relatively strongly, once active in the afternoon, with a decline of less than 1%. Smart government, digital currency, computer equipment, precious metals and other sectors led the decline.
Although the market is falling, some stocks are still strong against the market and perform well. On Thursday, bank stocks supported the market, and Bank of Lanzhou rose strongly to close at 5.83 yuan. The turnover reached 1.188 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 38.45%. On that day, the sales department bought a net of 119.026 million yuan, accounting for 10.02%, and bravely climbed the dragon and tiger list.
For the investment in bank stocks, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities analysis believes that at present, the policy underpins the macro economy, improves the bank’s business environment, and helps to increase credit supply and optimize asset quality. A number of listed banks have disclosed the performance express of 2021, the growth rate of revenue continues to improve, the net profit maintains rapid growth, the non-performing rate and provision coverage perform well, and the overall fundamentals are stable and good, which supports the valuation. At present, the valuation of the sector is at an all-time low, and the allocation value is prominent
on Thursday (January 27)
tabulation: Zhang Ying
For the recent shock consolidation of the market, where will the future market of A-Shares go? Major institutions hold different views.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : under the further hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting, the interest rate increase in March was almost a foregone conclusion, and the pace of monetary easing exit was faster in the first half of the year, triggering a negative resonance in the global equity market. Under the concern of the continuous adjustment of the overseas market during the long holiday, some A-share funds left the market ahead of schedule, resulting in the excessive release of negative sentiment in the market. First, the short-term adjustment of the market deviates from the trend of China’s monetary easing. External changes such as the loose exit of the Federal Reserve will not restrict the “me dominated” Chinese policy style, nor change the trend of long-term additional allocation of A-Shares by foreign capital. Secondly, the short-term adjustment of the market also deviates from the fundamental trend supported by the policy. The time point of the greatest downward pressure on China’s economy has passed. After the monetary force exceeds expectations, the relay of other ministries and local governments is expected to form a policy synergy, and the “policy bottom” has been clarified. Finally, the policy exit path of the Federal Reserve in the first half of the year has been clear, the sensitivity of US stocks and US bonds has been reduced after full response in the early stage, and the actual risk of overseas markets is expected to be small during the long holiday. Under the resonance of “emotional bottom” and “market bottom”, the overshoot of A-Shares brought better buying points for the market in the first half of the year.
Galaxy Securities: since the beginning of 2022, A-share callback has released certain risks. At present, the valuation has also fallen to a lower position, with room for rebound. At the same time, China is in the stage of gradually developing its steady growth policy. In the future, after the investor sentiment stabilizes and the risks of some tracks are gradually released, the spring market driven by steady growth may gradually open.
Guosheng Securities: the short-term market may be dominated by shock consolidation after rapid downward exploration. If the rise is accompanied by effective amplification of trading volume, it can be regarded as a long signal. Technically, it is waiting for KDJ oversold gold fork. In terms of time, there may be a counter pumping effect after the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on the 27th of this month. The policy inflection point is from February to March, and there will be a time window for the two sessions after the Spring Festival, Properly maintain position control, pay attention to whether big finance can drive the market out of the “spring agitation” market in the medium term, and pay attention to the bargain hunting layout opportunities of blue chip stocks in the annual report.
Wang Chunxiu, manager of dongtuo Investment Fund: today, in addition to the strong value sectors represented by banks, real estate and coal and covid-19 treatment, other sectors fell sharply. The main reason is that there are too many uncertain factors during the long Spring Festival holiday, and most of the recent external negative factors. Many investors, including institutional investors, choose to sell hedging before the festival. The long holiday and the disturbance of external factors are temporary. In the future, with the end of the holiday, A-Shares will still return to the track of structural market.
Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times: this morning, Powell’s statement of “not excluding the possibility of raising interest rates at every meeting and the need for large-scale table contraction” was more hawkish than the market expected, resulting in a significant outflow of foreign capital from A-Shares today. The probability that the increment of China’s basic currency in February is higher than that in January is small, and the height of correction rebound in the middle and early ten days is limited. After March, if the economic data from January to February are not as good as expected and trigger a new round of stimulus speculation, it may trigger a new round of rise in a shares. It is suggested that investors should mainly rebound and reduce their positions in mid and early February, and then look for opportunities in late February.
Hu Po, fund manager of private placement network: the recent macroeconomic data is less than expected, and the uncertainty at the economic level is also increasing. At the same time, the Fed’s interest rate increase and contraction led to the correction of US stocks, which also had a great impact on the confidence of a shares. Therefore, under the superposition of various negative factors, there has been a rapid correction in the stock market recently, The main index correction ranges are between 10% – 15%, and the adjustment range of individual stocks is even higher, especially the high growth stocks in the early stage. This is also the common influence of the market pessimism before the festival. In the long run, the overall market liquidity this year can still be guaranteed, so the probability of systemic risk is still very low. After full adjustment, the market will still show relatively good investment value. It is suggested that in the process of adjustment, we should dare to actively layout, and the pre festival may be the best layout time point.
Huang Yi, investment director of Hongfeng assets: after the rapid decline adjustment in the early stage, the market may be coming to an end, and the price performance of stock market valuation has improved. 1. China is still in the window period of monetary policy easing, and the central bank has strong certainty in maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity. Recently, the capital side has successively released positive signals, and the net inflow of funds to the North has been accelerated; 2. The Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates basically falls, the yield of short-term US bonds may be slightly adjusted downward, and the US stock market may usher in phased repair; 3. After the Spring Festival, all major projects will be started intensively, the momentum of steady growth will be further consolidated, and negative expectations will accelerate digestion; 4. After rapid adjustment, the valuation of high boom industries has returned to a more reasonable level. Considering the growth, the investment cost performance has been improved and the winning rate is very high. The follow-up market is still a structural market, focusing on high boom industries such as photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, semiconductors and steady growth infrastructure sectors.
