On January 25, the securities times held a dialogue with Li Bei, founder of Banxia investment in the reception hall. Li Bei has 10 years of working experience in the fund management industry. She once served as the investment manager of the special account in bocom Schroeder fund and the investment director and fund manager of Shanghai Honghu investment.
Li Bei believes that the United States may be a bear of stocks and bonds, and bonds will be more dangerous, especially credit bonds. This year's A-share market is not optimistic, mainly due to three negative factors: pressure on corporate profits; The position is relatively high and there is room for decline; The outflow of foreign capital.
Securities Times reporter: what cycle is China in now? What cycle is the world in? What indicators and data will be used to judge?
Li Bei: we mainly focus on two data, one is interest rate and liquidity, and the other is effective capacity utilization. One of these two indicators determines liquidity and the other determines corporate profits and commodity prices. Capacity utilization is positively correlated with commodity prices and corporate profits. Based on this framework, China has entered a recession cycle since the fourth quarter of 2021. However, there will be some fluctuations in this recession cycle, and there may be a small rebound in the first quarter of this year. For the United States, I tend to think that it has entered stagflation. Stagflation is first reflected in the slowdown of economic growth and the slowdown of enterprise profit growth. By the third quarter of 2021, it may be the fastest period of corporate profit growth and economic recovery in the United States. At the same time, inflation is also the highest level in the past 30 or 40 years.
Securities Times reporter: will we follow the fluctuations of overseas markets or walk out of an independent track?
Li Bei: in the past 10 years, there has been a certain dislocation in the Sino US cycle, and China's cycle is ahead. It didn't have a great impact on the economy or market before, because China was relatively independent. At that time, China's capital account was not open, so it would be better for China to follow its own cycle. Now it's different. After the concentrated inflow of foreign capital in the past three or five years, the proportion of foreign capital in both the stock market and the bond market is relatively high, so we can't completely break away from the cycle of overseas markets.
Securities Times reporter: in 2022, what do you think of the opportunities in the global market?
Li Bei: I tend to think that the United States may be a bear of stocks and bonds, and bonds are more dangerous, especially credit bonds. Many people say that American stocks are overvalued. In fact, compared with stocks and bonds, bonds are more overvalued. On China's side, China's national debt is lying and winning. China's national debt and interest rate spread are still at a very comfortable level, especially in the medium and short ends. There is still room for compression. A shares are not optimistic this year, mainly due to three negative factors: pressure on corporate profits; The position is relatively high and there is room for decline; The Federal Reserve raised interest rates and the outflow of foreign capital.
Securities Times reporter: how to look at commodities?
Li Bei: commodities may be a pattern of high before low. The main driving forces of the commodity bull market in 2021 are as follows: one is the supply side, such as coal, which had negative growth before October last year; In other areas, the supply was greatly disturbed in the second half of last year due to policies such as dual control of energy consumption. However, in 2022, many fields will recover. For example, coal will first achieve positive growth in output. The supply of most industrial products has increased this year. The other is the demand side, which is not very optimistic. Throughout the year, I am not optimistic about commodity prices.
Securities Times reporter: what areas are at risk? What areas deserve attention?
Li Bei: China has always been "emphasizing agriculture over commerce". We need to think about what is contemporary "agriculture" and what is contemporary "commerce". Manufacturing, especially high-tech manufacturing, is the contemporary "agriculture", which is the foundation of economy; Internet Finance may be the contemporary "business".
Securities Times reporter: how to view the opportunities of new energy at this stage?
Li Bei: in 2021, new energy vehicles are the best sector in related fields, and photovoltaic and wind power are worse. In fact, this is the problem of phased scenery. Taking photovoltaic as an example, its supply growth rate is higher. In many links, its supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate, so its profitability was compressed last year. When the barriers of an industry are not so high, the competitive pattern largely determines the profitability. We can't just look at the growth of volume. I think the story of photovoltaic in last year may fall on this year's new energy vehicles.
