Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Guosheng Securities: policies are working frequently! Risk appetite is not good. What is the hesitation of the stock market?
The policy has made frequent efforts, and the risk appetite has not improved. What is the stock market hesitating about? The fundamental reason for the restlessness in spring lies in the admission of incremental funds: at the macro level, it is shown as the liquidity overflow after credit supply, and at the micro level, it is shown as the “good start” of all kinds of funds. At the micro level, institutional issuance has cooled significantly since the beginning of the year, which is significantly lower than expected compared with the good start of the previous two years. At the macro level, although the central bank recently lowered the reserve requirements and interest rates one after another, on the one hand, it will take time for the macro liquidity to be transmitted to the entity and stock market, and the market at the end of last year overdraw the credit easing at the beginning of the year; On the other hand, steady growth has gradually entered the effect verification period, and the high base in January 2021 limits the imagination of short-term credit expansion, so the stock market trend is very tangled.
There is no agitation, but there is no need to be pessimistic. The market of the lunar new year can be expected. Since December last year, real estate sales, new construction and other data have deteriorated again, and the real estate chain continues to become a drag on the economy. The risks at the real estate end and the weakness of front-end data also mean that there is a need for further easing at the policy end. The signal released by the five-year LPR reduction is of greater significance. The end of the policy has been clear, and the probability will be substantially loosened in the future. Before the real reversal of economic data, the easing intensity may be amplified step by step, and the credit conditions have ushered in a real sense of stabilization. The m1-ppi scissors gap is repaired upward. The policy easing, credit stabilization and market expectation are expected to gradually return to a virtuous circle. In the stage of weak credit and economy in history, the success rate of large finance is the highest. With the digestion of growth, it is expected to open a wave of resonance market after the Spring Festival. []
Cinda Securities: slow bottom reading! Rebound after the Spring Festival
After steady growth, why did the index adjust instead? This is because: (1) since the second half of 2020, the previous rise of the stock market has been accompanied by the fact that the current profits of some sectors have greatly exceeded expectations, and the sales volume and price of the industry have exceeded expectations. Most of the sectors leading the rise since November 2021 are valuation repair, and there is no significant improvement in short-term Fundamentals (sales volume or price), which leads to the lack of position confidence of some investors.
(2) the issuance of funds in the stock market at the beginning of the year is not ideal. Looking ahead, strategically, 2022 will be a compressed version of 2018-2019, with the first half similar to 2018 and the second half similar to 2019. The tactical rebound will occur after the Spring Festival. The improvement of credit data and the active residents’ funds after the festival are worth looking forward to. The undervalued sector related to steady growth will continue to generate excess returns. Looking back on q2-q4 in 2014 and q3-q4 in 2018, regardless of the effect of steady growth, infrastructure, real estate and banks have excess returns within six months after steady growth. []
YueKai Securities: the market is nearing the end of adjustment. Investors should “look at the scenery”
According to our calculation, in terms of the winning rate in recent 10 years, the winning rates of Shanghai stock index and gem index are 70% and 80% respectively in the week before and after the Spring Festival; From the perspective of rise and fall, the average increase of Shanghai Stock Exchange / gem after the festival was 0.21% / 2.28%. The performance in the 15 trading days after the festival was significantly superior. Affected by the policy expectations of the two sessions and event driven, the performance after the festival was significantly better than that before the festival, and A-Shares had the calendar effect of “spring agitation”.
We believe that the follow-up downside space is limited, and the market is close to the end of adjustment. Investors should “look at the long scenery”. Under the theme of “focus on me”, steady growth is still the focus of the market in the near future. Whether it is broad money or credit, the policy underpinning economy is worth looking forward to. For the future market, the pre festival market pursues certainty, the performance of blue chip in the large market is better than that of small and medium-sized markets, the policy expectation after the festival rises again, and the market turns to pursue high elasticity. It is expected that steady growth in the first quarter is still the main market, and it is expected to take the lead in opening a wave of market dominated by large cap stocks.
In terms of allocation ideas, first, pay attention to the performance of large cap stocks in the near future. There is a strong demand for phased reverse switching in large cap stocks. Focus on the main line of steady growth and undervalued value, real estate, building materials, household appliances in the infrastructure and real estate chain, as well as leisure services, food and beverage and other consumer industries that expand domestic demand.
Second, pay attention to the performance of small and medium-sized markets throughout the year. This year’s marginal change at the denominator end has supported the trend of small and medium-sized stocks. In the stage of steady growth, we pay attention to the investment direction dominated by expected improvement and relative profit growth, and the energy transformation, high-end manufacturing, digital economy and other directions supported by high-quality transformation and development. []
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : from the end of the festival to the phased window period of A-Shares of the two sessions
When we distinguish the short-term and long-term factors of the weakness of a shares, we squat down, and the weak “restless” market logic from the post festival to the two sessions is clearer: 1) in terms of short-term factors, the market risk preference center moves up in a large probability from the post festival to the two sessions, and the rise probability of all A-Shares rises to 73% and the average yield rises to 3.0% from 2010 to 2021; The Fed’s interest rate hike and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine do not constitute incremental repression. The former has been within the range of consistent market expectations (the Fed’s four interest rate hikes in March, June, September and December this year are consistent expectations), and the latter does not obviously constitute a negative impact on the fundamentals or liquidity of a shares. The “squat” before the festival actually accumulates power for the “agitation” after the festival. 2) In terms of medium and long-term factors, the period from the end of the policy to the end of the valuation of A-Shares often shows three major stages and five small stages. The current concern about the strength of the policy may show market repair with the expansion of the strength of the policy.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : analysis of the causes of the market crash! Wait patiently for the panic on the disk to be completely digested
Institutional Analysis of the reasons for the sharp decline in the market, on the one hand, is due to the disturbance to the global market caused by the expectation of interest rate hike in the United States, superimposed on the impact of the intensification of the border between Russia and Ukraine, on the other hand, the consensus expectation of the Chinese market on the policy has changed after new year’s day, and the lack of profit-making effect, which eventually led to the general decline of individual stocks in the whole market, especially the huge decline of small and medium-sized stocks. In terms of hot spots, although the index fell sharply, there was an obvious undercurrent surge in the digital economy sector, and some stocks rose by the limit continuously, which represents the attitude and direction of attention of funds. In addition to the impact of the news, the performance mine is also the inducement of the market decline. At present, entering the intensive disclosure period of annual report performance forecast, the performance mine of some companies also has a certain pressure on the market. In addition, we also saw a lot of stocks that fell sharply and fell by the limit. Most of these stocks were wildly speculated in the early stage, but also concentrated on the decline, making the market “worse”.
In the face of heavy setbacks and continuous adjustments, we are not pessimistic about the market. More importantly, under the strong expectation of stable fundamentals and abundant liquidity, the logic of the overall improvement of the market has not changed. It is still the view that there is no need to panic to kill and cut meat. First, patiently wait for the panic on the disk to be completely digested.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : adjust the end! Maintain offensive thinking in a defensive atmosphere
The current market presents an obvious defensive atmosphere.
The main factors restricting market risk appetite are: first, the negative feedback caused by the rapid adjustment of heavy position stocks; second, the limited incremental funds such as new development fund since the new year; third, the increased volatility of overseas markets under the expectation of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
At the end of the adjustment, we are not pessimistic about the A-share market in the next quarter. The downward pressure on China’s economy is increasingly apparent. In the next half of the year, the economy is in the bottom seeking stage, and the economic probability will reach the bottom in the middle of next year. The downward performance has become the unanimous expectation of the market and will not become the core factor leading the market. In the absence of changes in fundamentals and policies, the reasons for the obvious adjustment of the market (especially institutional heavy position stocks) before and after new year’s day are highly likely to be related to the capital game. From historical experience, this adjustment lasts about 2-3 weeks. At present, the adjustment of heavy position stocks may be coming to an end.
Keep the offensive thinking. There are no obvious negative factors in China. With the convening of the Fed interest rate meeting, the rhythm of interest rate increase is expected to stabilize, and the fluctuations in overseas markets are difficult to last. At present, the stable growth sector is the preferred choice under the defensive idea. Under the superposition of undervalued values and strong policy expectations, the market performance of the sector has a bottom in the downward direction and flexibility in the upward direction. However, as the market risk appetite bottomed out and rebounded, the market turned from defensive to offensive, and the stable growth sector is not the best choice. The core reason is that the fundamentals of the infrastructure sector related to steady growth are difficult to have great elasticity, and the correlation between roe of the infrastructure sector and economic growth and infrastructure investment is becoming weaker and weaker. Historically, one belt, one road and the central enterprises, have not been significantly related to the relative performance of infrastructure construction in recent years.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : the shock still follows the main line of “steady growth”
The shock remains the same, and we need to follow the main line of “steady growth”. Near the Spring Festival, A-Shares are affected by the disturbance of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the uncertainty of the news before the long holiday. The power of incremental funds to enter the market is insufficient, and A-Shares still show the characteristics of structural market. Since December, China’s steady growth policy has made forward-looking efforts. The central bank has cut reserve requirements and interest rates one after another, and there is still room for subsequent interest rate cuts. The market is in a “wide money” window period, and macro liquidity is expected to remain relatively loose. Structurally, “wide credit” is the ultimate demand of the central bank for wide money. Infrastructure and real estate are important. The real estate regulation policy is expected to be marginal loose. Urban renewal, affordable housing construction and new infrastructure are the key directions. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to focus on “undervalued blue chip”: first, it is related to traditional infrastructure, such as banks and building materials; Second, the real estate and its upstream and downstream industrial chain benefiting from the marginal improvement of real estate policy. Focus on topics: digital economy, meta universe, traditional Chinese medicine, etc. []
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) : stock holding or currency holding market characteristics before and after the Spring Festival
Combing the market characteristics before and after the Spring Festival, first, the A-share Spring Festival effect is significant, the market has a high probability of rising before and after the festival, and the Spring Festival red envelopes in the A-share market in the past ten years have the characteristics of significant low risk and high return. Second, in contrast, the Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index perform better than the Shanghai Composite Index, and the small and medium-sized stock indexes such as China Securities 500 and China Securities 1000 are better than the heavyweight indexes such as Shanghai Securities 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Third, from the performance of various industries, Shenwan’s primary industries generally closed up around the Spring Festival, and nonferrous metals, electronics, computers and other sectors performed relatively well. Fourth, from the performance of each style index, the main style indexes also have a high probability of closing and rising before and after the Spring Festival, and the style of high price earnings ratio is better than low price earnings ratio, the style of high price stocks is better than low price stocks, and the style of low loss and low profit stocks is better than blue chip stocks.
