On January 27, the penultimate trading day before the Spring Festival, the A-share market fell again. As of the close, individual stocks in the sector showed a general downward trend. Less than 300 stocks in the two cities rose, more than 100 stocks fell by the limit, and more than 4000 stocks fell, with a very poor profit-making effect.
After hours, the reporter interviewed a number of public offering institutions, including China Merchants, Ping An, Boshi, Wanjia, YONGYING, Everbright baodexin, Qianhai Kaiyuan, Jinying, Nord, Western Lide, Huafu, Bodao, Tongtai, Yimi and other more than ten companies, and made a first-time interpretation of today's market performance.
The public offering respondents generally believed that Powell Hawks' statement was the core concern of the current A-share market, and the tense overseas situation directly suppressed investors' risk appetite; In addition, the booming industries with outstanding performance in the past year are facing relatively large profit prospects and valuation adjustments; At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the position adjustment and stock exchange of institutional funds will also disturb the market.
Looking forward to the future, the fund companies unanimously judged that the short-term disturbance of the market will not change the long-term trend. After the Spring Festival, the positive factors will be gradually revised upward, the negative factors will accelerate the convergence, and the A-share market may be expected to gradually recover. In fact, the current market has a good investment value. Fund companies actively purchase from themselves to boost market confidence. It is also a positive signal to "stand up the backbone of a shares" with practical actions.
Powell Hawks' statement disturbs A-Shares
On Thursday, the Shanghai index opened higher, the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index opened lower, and rebounded slightly after the initial decline of the market. The Shanghai index was close to 3400 points in the early trading, and A-Shares continued to fluctuate downward in the afternoon. The Shanghai index fell more than 1.5% and broke through 3400 points, the gem index fell more than 3%, and more than 100 shares in the two cities fell by the limit.
As of the closing, the Shanghai index had reported 3394.25 points, down 1.78%, with a turnover of 346.5 billion yuan; The Shenzhen composite index reported 13398.84 points, down 2.77%, with a turnover of 476.4 billion yuan; The gem index reported 2906.76 points, down 3.25%, with a turnover of 190.6 billion yuan. Public funds generally believe that the adjustment of the A-share market is caused by the aggregation of multiple negative factors and the disturbance of overseas factors.
Overseas, Boshi Fund believes that the Fed's interest rate meeting hinted at raising interest rates in March and said that it does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates at each interest rate meeting, and its hawkish degree exceeded market expectations or the fuse.
China Merchants Fund said that Powell Hawks' statement is the core concern of the current A-share market. The relevant guidelines for interest rate increase and table reduction given in the written document of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January basically meet market expectations. However, Powell said at the press conference that the point of exceeding expectations was that he was open to raising interest rates more than four times during the year and the range of interest rate increases, which led to the market's expectation of raising interest rates four to five times during the year, and triggered the rapid fall of asset prices to hawks.
After Powell's above statement, asset prices also adjusted significantly, US bond yields jumped in an all-round way, the interest rate curve became steeper, gold almost erased all the gains in the past week, the US dollar index regained strength, and US stocks fell rapidly. This concerns about the valuation end of A-share assets.
According to further analysis of golden eagle fund, on the whole, the statement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January did not exceed market expectations.
However, the market is still frightened, which more reflects the amplification of Powell's "Hawk" orientation in the current market. After the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate resolution, the three major stock indexes were still trading at intraday highs, indicating that the interest rate resolution did not exceed expectations, and US stocks turned from up to down during Powell's press conference.
It can be seen that the factors that significantly suppress market expectations may be related to Powell's relevant statements. Among them, when answering the reporter's question "how will the interest rate increase be distributed among various meetings", Powell responded that "interest rates may be increased at every meeting", which was interpreted by the market as "interest rates may be increased at every Federal Reserve interest rate meeting", transmitting a "partial Eagle" signal.
In addition, since the interest rate meeting in January did not have a long-term time plan and intensity arrangement for the fed to raise interest rates and shrink the table in the future, Powell also delivered more uncertainty information in relevant aspects in the face of reporters, so the market also made pessimistic pricing for "uncertainty". On January 27, the net outflow of funds from A-Shares going north exceeded 14 billion, the largest in nearly a year.
For the reasons for market fluctuations, YONGYING Fund believes that the Federal Reserve released a more than expected hawkish signal overnight, leading to a significant adjustment in global stock markets.
Specifically, before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January, considering that there has been a major adjustment in US stocks, the market expects the meeting to release a signal of easing, but in the end, the Federal Reserve's attitude has not softened. It still suggests that taper will end in March, raise interest rates for the first time in March at the earliest, and is expected to start to shrink after starting to raise interest rates.
After the meeting, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not respond positively to the number of interest rate hikes, which was interpreted as not excluding interest rate hikes at each meeting. The expectation of monetary tightening increased, resulting in US stocks turning from rising to flat. Today, US stock index futures are still adjusting, and the overseas liquidity risk superimposed US stock adjustment once again affects the sentiment of the Chinese market.
Tongtai fund also said that the biggest concern of the market now is the Fed's interest rate hike. Last night, Beijing time, the Fed showed a more hardline signal, and the pace of interest rate hike was earlier than previously expected by the market. Superimposed on China's Spring Festival holiday, the performance of US stocks during the period may have a great impact on the A-share market after the year, which is also a great uncertainty.
Historically, the "expected enhancement" of the Fed's interest rate increase or table contraction will lead to the periodic decline of US stocks and a shares, the landing of interest rate increase boots or the expected stabilization, and the market often bottoms out periodically.
Yimi Fund believes that the performance of the A-share market is weak. On the one hand, it is impacted by the external factors of the Federal Reserve's currency shift, and on the other hand, it is also related to the recent conflict concerns in Russia and Ukraine.
Yimi Fund said that since the beginning of the year, the microstructure of the A-share market has deteriorated, which has also expanded the spread of investor pessimism. However, we believe that the current economic cycle mismatch between China and the United States, the central bank's recent speech has put "me first" before "stability first", the macro monetary policy will still be dominated by China, the loose situation of China's policy will still be maintained, and the overall valuation of A-Shares will be compressed and unsustainable.
Xie Yi, fund manager of Nord fund, also said, "we see that the recent market has led to a relatively large correction due to the rising expectation of external fed interest rate hike. At the same time, the situation in Ukraine has also exacerbated the range of adjustment."
A shares face dual emotional repression
In addition to overseas factors disturbing a shares, the aggregation of various negative factors in China makes A-Shares under short-term pressure. Golden Eagle Fund believes that although the fear of geopolitical friction has been repaired recently, for the Chinese market, it is still in the time window with low risk preference before the Spring Festival, and the short-term A-shares are facing the suppression of both internal and external emotions.
In the past week, the transaction volume of A-Shares remained below trillion, and it was around 800 billion for two consecutive days from January 26 to 27, significantly shrinking compared with the previous transaction scale of 1-1.1 trillion days.
Chang Xiaowei, chief market analyst of Xinxin, also said that the main reason for today's market decline was the resonance of dual factors outside China, the landing of the overseas fed interest rate meeting, Powell's release of the "Hawk" signal and his emphasis on the early contraction of the table in March, which had a great impact on the overseas market. In addition, the superposition of A-Shares is close to major festivals, resulting in reduced risk appetite of on-site funds.
Boshi Fund said that as the Spring Festival approached, investors' trading enthusiasm continued to weaken and risk aversion further strengthened; Thirdly, the downward pressure on China's economy still exists, and the market still has doubts about the future trend of China's economy.
According to the analysis of Bodao fund, the market continues to adjust downward in the short term, which may be caused by multiple factors outside China. In China, due to the downturn in the economic stage, the booming industries with outstanding performance in the past year are facing relatively large profit prospects and valuation adjustments. The position adjustment behavior of market players at the beginning of the year also has an impact on the market. At present, the operation of monetary easing has just started, and it will take time to reflect the fundamentals. From the perspective of market structure, when no new hot spots or relatively uncertain investment opportunities are found in the short term, there may be spontaneous balance, and some hot industries will adjust downward to find space.
In addition, Bodao Fund believes that the proportion of institutional investors in the A-share market is increasing, and some funds will adjust their positions at the end of the year, which may be one of the factors affecting the market in the short term.
For the reasons why the overall market performance is poor and there is no "good start" since the beginning of the year, Huafu fund research department recently said that while the track stocks with heavy positions of funds in the early stage fell, the stable growth related industries did not provide sufficient support for the index. The main reason is that the market is looking for a new main line due to the high valuation at the beginning of the year and the lack of new over expected catalysis in the short term.
The main line of steady growth is at the stage of policy setting but no clear policy implementation. There are differences in the market's expectations for steady growth, mainly in the strength and grasp of steady growth. Therefore, it can be seen that the rise of steady growth is not straightforward, with rise in the first week, correction in the second week and rise in the third week.
In terms of monetary policy, China's monetary policy of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates (LPR and policy interest rates) and steady growth is gradually gaining strength. The hawkish expression of the overseas Federal Reserve makes the market expect that the process of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase may be advanced, and the US bond interest rate will rise, which shortens the time window for the market to expect China's monetary policy to be loose, As a result, the response of the equity market to China's relatively loose monetary policy is flat. In the final analysis, it is still in a pessimistic expectation of the economy and lack of confidence in steady growth.
keep positive and optimistic about the market after the Spring Festival
Although the short-term A-share market continues to adjust, dual factors outside China suppress market performance. In the short term, the fund company is not pessimistic about the prospect of A-Shares and remains optimistic about the market after the Spring Festival.
Qianhai open source Fund said that the current fund issuance has warmed up, self purchase has also increased significantly, and the positive basis difference of if and IC has also begun to converge, indicating that the pressure from quantitative capital deleveraging has been significantly released, and the congestion of popular tracks has significantly warmed up. In addition, after the sharp decline of US stocks, the ratio of put to call option trading volume of S & P 500 has dropped significantly, indicating that the adjustment of US stocks may be coming to an end, and the subsequent impact on China's A-share market will gradually decrease.
Therefore, from the above indicators, the negative release has been relatively sufficient, the adjustment is coming to an end, and the market is at the bottom. Subsequently, with the recovery of risk appetite, the continuation of loose liquidity and the continuation of the boom direction, the market is expected to usher in a wave of "decent repair"
Tongtai fund also believes that in the short term, the most panic time in the market has passed. With the gradual clarity of expectations, the market volatility will gradually decrease. The biggest risk of investment is not the risk of the market, but the risk of permanent loss of asset price due to the overvaluation of the subject matter and the lack of growth of performance.
On the follow-up trend of the A-share market, there are great differences in the market. Although the market has weakened due to the disturbance of some uncertain factors, the current market has a good investment value; After the valuation digestion, the valuation of some high-quality enterprises has been attractive. In the dimension of 3 to 5 years, the performance growth rate of enterprises will be reflected in the growth of their market value.
Xie Yi, manager of Nord fund, said bluntly, "I am still optimistic about the whole year. External factors will gradually dissipate, and internal factors of China's economy will become the dominant factor."
According to the analysis of Ping An fund, since the beginning of 2022, on the one hand, there have been concerns about China's economic growth, on the other hand, A-Shares have fluctuated sharply due to the influence of overseas markets. From the perspective of the Chinese government's Cross cyclical adjustment of the economy, there is no need to worry too much about liquidity.
Chang Xiaowei, chief market analyst of Everbright Prudential, judged that A-Shares fluctuated greatly in the short term and should not be overly pessimistic in the short term. Firstly, China's policy is relatively warm at present, and the economic fundamentals have not deteriorated significantly. Secondly, A-Shares are relatively low compared with the global stock market.
\u3000\u3000 "Third, the opportunity of gold pit before the festival is conducive to the repair and rebound of the market after the festival. Fourth, the recent significant contraction of the two cities has fallen, which has been at the relative bottom level compared with the second half of last year. In conclusion, whether it is the short-term market fluctuation or the long-term stability of China's fundamentals, we should not be overly pessimistic about the future market. Among them, the short-term decline of undervalued varieties may It is a phased adjustment. At present, we should put a flat mind and long-term layout! " Chang Xiaowei said.
China Merchants Fund believes that the first adjustment before the year means that the market opportunities after the year, and there will still be a shock pattern before the A-share Festival. Looking forward to the Spring Festival, on the one hand, the positive factors will be gradually revised upward. After experiencing the real estate credit risk and local hidden debt problems in recent years, the market inevitably hesitates to stabilize growth. However, at present, the local two sessions have been held one after another, and the demand for steady growth is strong. With the successive completion of the term change of provincial Party and government organs, the steady growth policy will accelerate the promotion and force, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the molecular end after the year.
On the other hand, negative factors will accelerate convergence. At present, the market is gradually pricing the changes in overseas liquidity expectations. The negative impact of overseas liquidity expectations before the year is being accelerated. At the same time, the real estate credit risk will be gradually implemented after the year, and the negative factors at the denominator will accelerate the convergence. In addition, the short-term risk appetite of investors has been at a low level recently, and the downward space is limited. On the whole, the A-share market may gradually recover after the Spring Festival.
Bodao fund also believes that the short-term disturbance of the market will not change the long-term trend. Since 2019, China's A-share market has entered a new upward cycle, and the biggest driving force behind it comes from the allocation of large categories of assets. Looking forward to 2022, the trend of the transfer of large asset allocation to A-Shares will continue, but the market is worried that the speed of inflow of A-Shares in 2022 may be reduced compared with the past three years.
The current stability of the RMB exchange rate shows that overseas disturbances have not really affected the fundamentals of China's economy. At the same time, we should believe that after the counter cyclical adjustment of monetary policy and fiscal policy is started, there will be positive feedback on economic fundamentals in 2-3 quarters. According to the central bank's statement of "opening up the monetary policy toolbox a little", there is still more room for follow-up monetary policy, and the stock market usually makes a positive response to this trend change in advance, In 2022, the probability of medium-term adjustment trend in A-share market lasting more than 6 months is small. Bodao fund suggested that we should dare to grasp the opportunities in the adjustment process of some high-quality growth stocks.
Although the market has weakened due to the disturbance of some uncertain factors, the current market already has good investment value. Bodao fund applied for a total of 10 million yuan for some of its funds on the 24th. The company is optimistic about the long-term and stable development prospect of China's economy and firmly believes that long-term investment is a reasonable way to share the value of the capital market, especially when there is a "good price" in the market, We should stick to it.
steady growth is still in the first quarter
A number of fund companies said that there was still room for steady growth in the first quarter, while paying attention to the progress of the Fed's interest rate hike or even table contraction, the rhythm of China's fiscal force in advance, etc.
Western profit Fund believes that the main line of China's policy in 2022, the reduction of LPR at the beginning of the year, the continuous development of fiscal policy and the fine-tuning of real estate related policies all show that steady growth is on the way. From the macro perspective, there are sufficient reserves in the toolbox of steady growth such as monetary and fiscal policies. It is worth looking forward to the continuous protection of China's economic environment and the relatively loose pattern of liquidity.
Western profit Fund believes that recently, the public fund industry has set off a "self purchase tide", using practical actions to "prop up the backbone of a shares", shoulder the main responsibility of leading value investment, and release positive signals. Behind this signal is not only institutional investors' recognition of the investment value of the A-share market, but also their confidence in the long-term improvement of China's economy.
Golden Eagle Fund reiterated that the recent weak performance of the A-share market in the short term does not mean that the spring market is gone, or just the delay of "agitation". Before the two sessions, China was entering the observation period of "steady growth" and "moderately advanced policy force", and China's liquidity environment was loose.
After the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January and after the Spring Festival, it is expected that the suppression factors of peripheral and Chinese funds may subside, and the "good start" effects such as subsequent bank credit and fund issuance may boost the market. Investors still need to wait patiently.
YONGYING fund also said that it was not pessimistic about the future market and waited for China's further easing policy after the Spring Festival. Overseas, the next fed interest rate meeting is in late March. Considering that the US economic data may weaken in February, the monetary tightening is expected to ease moderately.
In China, under the downward pressure of China's economy, the policy probability will continue to be loose.
In terms of coping strategies, YONGYING Fund said that from the perspective of half a year, the certainty of taking steady growth as the main line is large, the valuation of relevant sectors is low, which can resist external risks. At the same time, it is also in line with the phased support direction of the policy and needs to wait for the data verification signal after the policy is launched.
Yimi fund is also optimistic about the future market. At present, China is in a policy cycle of wide credit and wide monetary policy. The tone of "stable growth" is clear. The positive fiscal policy and the recent signal of "reducing reserve requirements and interest rates" from the central bank all represent that the policy is gradually exerting force, and China's economy will still maintain a good trend. Looking forward to the future, the influence of denominator end is gradually weakened, and the confidence of numerator end is constantly repaired. After the Spring Festival, the market is expected to gradually correct upward, and investors should gradually enhance their confidence.
Huafu fund research department believes that steady growth is still possible in the first quarter. In the future, with the improvement of policy expectations and the gradual implementation of policies, it is expected that the certainty of steady growth will be improved, and the certainty of credit cycle from wide currency to wide credit will be improved. The time points for future verification include the local two sessions, the credit extension in mid February and the two sessions. From the perspective of liquidity, the macro liquidity is loose, the credit is expected upward, but the wide credit has not been completed, and the micro liquidity supports the overall valuation of a shares.
However, for the moment, considering that the logic of steady growth has been deduced more, YONGYING fund stressed that it may be difficult to have more obvious signals of steady growth before and after the Spring Festival. If there is a signal of monetary easing after the Spring Festival, the growth style may usher in a phased rebound. In the future, if the Federal Reserve starts the interest rate increase cycle, the global risk asset prices may be affected again.
YONGYING Fund believes that the following factors need to be paid attention to in the near future. First, the Fed's progress in raising interest rates and even shrinking the table; Second, the rhythm of China's fiscal development in advance; Third, observe China's industrial policies, including the promotion progress of new energy, real estate financing policies, real estate tax and consumption tax.
focus on high-quality growth targets benefiting from economic transformation and upgrading
In terms of investment direction, high-quality growth targets in emerging industries benefiting from China's economic transformation and upgrading are still favored by public offering.
Looking forward to the future, Tongtai Fund believes that the subdivided industries with clear growth are the key direction of capital attention; The asset allocation of its funds still focuses on high growth. Starting from the supply and demand pattern, it looks for excellent enterprises from an industrial perspective, hoping to obtain long-term excess returns for its holders.
Ping An fund is still optimistic about the opportunities of vehicle intelligence and supply chain reconstruction driven by new energy vehicles, science and technology manufacturing opportunities under the wave of digital development, the recovery of consumption profitability caused by the narrowing of cpi-ppi scissors difference, and the industrial chain caused by energy reform.
With the adjustment of the market, Ping An Fund said that what we can do is to actively track the fundamentals of various industries and key companies, and strive to seek alpha of individual stocks in the volatile market.
"I fear when others are greedy, and I am greedy when others are afraid," the Western profit fund quoted Buffett as saying This round of adjustment is essentially a very good window for valuation digestion and sector rebalancing. We cherish the valuable opportunity of market adjustment and pay attention to the investment opportunities of stable growth sectors and high growth industries after adjustment. When the market fluctuates sharply, you might as well be more calm and confident.
Bodao Fund said that with the downward trend of the market, the risk has been gradually released. The probability of subsequent A shares continuing to decline significantly is small, the probability will continue to fluctuate, and the structural market will continue. Science and technology, advanced manufacturing, new energy and other sectors will benefit from China's economic transformation and upgrading, so we can pay appropriate attention to the investment opportunities of relevant high-quality leading enterprises.
In terms of industry allocation, Golden Eagle Fund believes that before the Spring Festival, before the "stable growth" policy has not been fully implemented, the risk appetite of A-share funds is still inclined to defense. In the short term, it is more inclined to the main line of "steady growth" of undervalued Value Catalyzed by expected policies, namely bank real estate chain, new and old infrastructure chain and mass consumption.
In the medium to long term, new energy, military and other technology sectors may still maintain a high economic boom in 2022. After this round of adjustment, during the subsequent intensive disclosure period of the quarterly reports, the business direction of high performance and cost-effective performance can still be adjusted.
Xie Yi's analysis, "With the decline, we have seen a considerable number of sectors with allocation value. For example, the real estate industry chain previously affected by the tightening of industrial policies and the impact of Evergrande incident has a high cost performance, and there is long-term value in household appliances, furniture and consumer building materials. Secondly, some exports negatively affected by overseas epidemic and supply chain disturbance in the early stage With the normalization of the epidemic situation, there will be restorative improvements in the manufacturing industry, as well as the manufacturing industry with factories overseas, and the profits and valuations are expected to rebound. For another example, high growth industries with high long-term growth certainty and current valuation adjusted with the market, such as new energy and chips, all have common opportunities. "
"On the whole, we can see that sufficient opportunities at the individual stock level emerge with the adjustment. At present, it is a better time point to increase positions. In addition, Hong Kong stocks are actually more attractive in terms of valuation. At the same time, their fundamentals are highly likely to follow the continuous recovery of China's economy, and their cost performance may be greater than that of a shares." Xie Yi said.
Yimi fund suggests paying attention to the fields of green power, new energy vehicles and intelligent driving with high growth certainty, and gradually increasing wind power, photovoltaic, energy storage, hydrogen energy and automotive electronics; High quality blue chips such as building materials and mandatory consumption with high performance certainty and relatively low valuation can also be actively deployed.
media review
Front page of Securities Daily: erect the backbone of a shares
Front page of Securities Times: keep the cloud open and see the moon bright
Financial investment news: A-share "standing up" needs capital and confidence
institutional view
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : "emotional bottom" and "market bottom" resonate, and market overshoot brings better buying points
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : A shares are currently cost-effective, short-term disturbance does not change the medium and long-term trend
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : empty energy is released, and the stock index will rebound technically at any time
