Food and beverage holdings continued to decline, Baijiu and Food Holdings declined. The proportion of food and beverage sector in 2021q4 fund’s heavy positions was 7.77%, down 0.57pct from Q3. The proportion of 2020q4-2021q4 fund’s heavy positions in food and beverage was 10.38%, 10.08%, 9.45%, 8.34% and 7.77% respectively. Q4 began to fall gradually after reaching the historical peak in 2020. Baijiu stock holdings declined. Baijiu Baijiu 2021Q4 positions 6.50%, reference liquor market value accounted for A shares (excluding bank petroleum and petrochemical) market share of 5.85%, Baijiu super matching range of 0.65pct. The over allocation range is reduced (the over allocation range of Q3 is 1.02pct). Positions in food stocks fell. 2021q4 fund’s heavy positions in dairy products, food synthesis, seasoning and fermented products and meat products were 0.51%, 0.18%, 0.08% and 0.02% respectively, with month on month changes of -0.04pct, -0.06pct, -0.03pct and 0.00pct. According to the 2021Q4 fund’s heavy stock, the total market value of Baijiu holdings accounted for 12.37% of the total value of the fund’s heavily loaded stocks, and the ratio of liquor to stock was 0.09pct. The proportion of the total value of the food and beverage holdings was 14.77%, the ratio of the total value of the fund to the total value of the stock was 14.77%, a decrease of 2021Q4.
Among the top 20 heavyweight stocks of the fund, there are 5 food and beverage targets, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Laojiao and Yili rank higher. By the end of December 2021, there were five food and beverage stocks in the top 20 with the highest proportion of fund positions, namely Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) . Baijiu shares, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) positions rose, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ranking increased. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) the proportion of heavy fund positions in 12021q4 was 2.57%, up 0.03pct month on month. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the position of the whole market rose by 1 to 32021q4, with the position proportion of 1.21%, down 0.20pct month on month. The position ranking of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) increased by 3 places to 52021q4, with a position proportion of 1.01%, a month on month increase of 0.14pct, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) decreased by 2 places to 12, and the position proportion of Q4 decreased by 0.13pct to 0.65%. In terms of food stocks, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) fund position rose to 162021q4, with a position ratio of 0.47%, down 0.01pct month on month.
Analysis on the number of funds held by individual stocks: the overall number of funds held increased, reflecting differentiation. Baijiu sector, 2021Q4 food and beverage sector holds the number of funds in the top 10 shares of liquor Baijiu accounted for 7 seats, namely Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) . In terms of shareholding quantity, Maotai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Fenjiu, Yanghe and Gujing reduced their holdings by 0.1%, 6.3%, 7.9%, 12.5% and 17.5% month on month respectively, and Laojiao and shede increased their holdings by 11.4% and 71.3% respectively. In the food sector, the number of shares held by some companies decreased significantly, including Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) . The number of shares decreased by 1.3%, 9.3%, 50.1% and 57.1% respectively month on month, with Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) and Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) increasing compared with 2021q3. In the beer sector, Tsingtao beer and China Resources increased month on month. The number of funds held by 2021q4 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) increased by 11, but the number of shares fell by 10.8%, the number of shares held by Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) increased by 16.1% and the number of shares held by China Resources beer increased by 31.9%.
Investment suggestions: we believe that the recovery of consumption scenes such as banquets and catering under scientific epidemic prevention, the recovery of public price belt demand stimulated by policies such as stabilizing employment and promotion fees, and the high profit elasticity of some public products are the key points of investment in the food and beverage sector in 2022. In Baijiu, we think Baijiu has a prosperous marginal profit and a flexible area. α Opportunities, such as the relief and economic recovery of the area such as Su and Hui, will help some regions to release their elasticity of Baijiu release, or promote the overall upgrading of regional Baijiu valuation. We recommend the regional Baijiu Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , and pay attention to Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) and Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) . High end Baijiu Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is currently expected to be low, waiting for the price to pick up the warmer expectations. In terms of popular products, it is recommended to follow the implementation of price increase in the peak season of the Spring Festival and the rhythm of performance release. At present, it is recommended to focus on the targets with smooth price increase and good demand margin, such as Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , and pay attention to Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) . Secondly, it is recommended to recommend high-quality targets in the catering supply chain, such as Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , and those with large profit elasticity, such as Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , and pay attention to Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) .
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic may be repeated; Slowdown in macroeconomic growth and changes in liquidity; Industry competition exceeded expectations.
