\u3000\u3000 Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300573) (300573)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 187 ~ 212 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 112.46% ~ 140.49%, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company of 177 ~ 202 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 107.92 ~ 136.89%.
High performance, growth in line with expectations. The company has more than doubled its performance in 2021 and reached a new high. From 2019 to 2021, the performance growth rate exceeded 100% for three consecutive years. We judge that the main driving force of the company’s growth is the company’s medical service business (Xingqi Eye Hospital) and eye drops business.
Atropine eye drops are expected to shine. According to the company’s previous announcement, from January to July 2021, the income of Xingqi ophthalmic hospital was 160 million yuan, exceeding that of 2020 (138 million yuan), including 142 million yuan of drug income (basically 0.01% atropine eye drops) and more than that of 2020 (114 million yuan). According to the data from January to July and the data of the company’s semi annual report and the third quarterly report, we predicted that the revenue of atropine eye drops in 2021 was about 300 million yuan, which is still maintained at present.
Other businesses have achieved rapid growth, and we look forward to the large volume of cyclosporine eye drops after entering the medical insurance. According to the overall data and atropine calculation data of the company in the third quarter, we judge that the business of the company has also achieved more than double-digit growth in the first three quarters except atropine eye drops, and the overall situation has not changed much from the first three quarters. In December 2021, the company announced that the company’s cyclosporine eye drops (II) were included in the national medical insurance catalogue in 2021, and the price was 5.5 yuan (0.4ml ∶ 0.2mg / piece), or 165 yuan / box, which was about 80% lower than the previous price of 799 yuan. We judge that the price of cyclosporine eye drops was relatively high. Although it was an exclusive product, it was still difficult to promote it. After the price reduction of cyclosporine is included in the medical insurance, the promotion and volume of cyclosporine is expected to accelerate. It is expected that the revenue end of the company’s cyclosporine eye drops will increase significantly on the basis of 2021 in 2022.
The acquisition of minority equity of Xingqi ophthalmic hospital is expected to thicken the company’s performance. In September 2021, the company announced the acquisition of 33.20% equity of Shenyang Xingqi ophthalmic hospital Co., Ltd. held by Zhensheng investment center of Ningbo Meishan free trade port area. After the acquisition, Xingqi ophthalmic hospital became a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company; On October 18, 2021, the general meeting of shareholders voted to pass the proposal. The revenue and net profit of Xingqi ophthalmic hospital in 2020 were 138 million yuan and 16.51 million yuan respectively; From January to July in 2021, it was 160 million yuan and 26.98 million yuan respectively. According to the prediction of the company, Xingqi ophthalmology will earn 127 million yuan from August to December 2021. If the net interest rate remains the same as that from January to July, the net profit of Xingqi ophthalmology will be 48.4 million yuan in 2021, and it is expected to achieve rapid growth in 2022. Even if the conservative net profit of RMB 50 million in 2022 is calculated, the consolidated statement of minority equity will increase the net profit of the listed company by about RMB 16.6 million to the parent company.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 207 million yuan, 303 million yuan and 434 million yuan respectively, with the corresponding growth rates of 135.3%, 46.2% and 43.5% respectively; EPS is 2.35 yuan, 3.44 yuan and 4.93 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 46x, 32x and 22x respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the promotion of core products is not as expected; The market competition of ophthalmic drugs is intensifying; Risk of new drug research and development.
