\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957)
The performance forecast of the company in 2021 belongs to the parent company, with a net profit of RMB 820-890 million. The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company is about 820-890 million yuan (YoY + 50.87% - 63.75%), deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company is about 770-840 million yuan (YoY + 50.20% - 63.85%), the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in q1-3 in 2021 is 45.83% / 75.13% / 64.29% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 alone is about 465-535 million yuan (YoY + 41.59-62.92%), The net profit deducted from non parent company is about 437-507 million yuan (YoY + 37.85% - 59.94%), of which the non recurring profit and loss is 45-55 million yuan, mainly due to the investment income of idle fund cash management and government subsidies, and the performance is in line with market expectations.
Product sales continued to shine, and the main brand "Winona" continued to consolidate its brand strength. The company's main brand "Winona" focuses on the sensitive muscle track. In 2021, it won the top 10 of tmall beauty makeup in double 11. It is the only domestic brand on the list, with cumulative sales exceeding 1 billion. The strategy of large single product has achieved good results, and the sales of classic single product special cream has been continuously bright. The contribution of the "Shu Min series" has been outstanding, and the explosive products such as sunscreen / freeze-dried mask have been derived. In terms of efficacy, they have been extended to the "sensitive plus", aiming at the advanced needs of sensitive muscle groups, such as whitening, sunscreen and anti aging. According to iResearch, Winona brand's market share in the dermatology level skin care market has increased to 22.5%, and further widened the gap with the latter, highlighting its brand strength.
The channel operation rhythm is steady, and the brand value is magnified in coordination. The company has a clear positioning for online / offline channels and cooperatively enlarge the brand value. The tiktok Kwai has benefited from fine operation and flexible marketing, and maintained high growth rate. During the double eleven period, it was brilliant in many business platforms, and Tmall / Jingdong / vip.com / jomme cosmetics self sowing / fast hand were ranked 6/2/6/1/6. Maintain the professional tone of the brand offline. In December, the brand image store opened in Hangzhou Yintai. In the future, it is expected to further increase the number of stores and enhance the brand influence. The OTC layout is steadily promoted to East / South China, and Watson / Beauty Collection stores and other new channels are expanded, both young, emerging and professional. In addition, private domain construction has achieved remarkable results. Through the output of high-value content, it can effectively improve user stickiness and reduce the cost of getting customers. We expect that in 2022, the growth rate of online channels will maintain 40% +, the proportion will increase to 85% +, and the growth rate of offline channels will maintain 25% +.
The multi brand strategy has been steadily expanded, and efforts have been made to build a large consumption ecological landscape. The expansion of the company's brand matrix is stable. Winona baby finely distinguishes products according to age (0-12 years old) and cooperates with pediatric medical experts to maintain professional tone. 2021 double 11 was listed in the top 10 of tmall baby skin care for the first time. We expect the revenue to exceed 100 million in 2022; In May, it is expected to launch a new anti-aging brand, continue the professional tone and focus on the whole cortex anti-aging. In the initial stage, it is planned to take offline medical and beauty institutions as the breakthrough, and it is expected to be large in the future. The overall positioning of the company is based on the height, and the point, line and surface are gradually precipitated into a large and healthy ecological territory. The Yunnan characteristic plant extraction laboratory led by the company has recently been delisted. Through the use of Yunnan characteristic plant resources to make research and development breakthroughs in functional skin care products / food / drugs and other tracks, it is expected to further participate in the competition in the world market and set a benchmark through M & A / going to sea in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. Based on the company's performance in 2021, we maintain the forecast that the revenue in 2022 / 2023 will be RMB 5.380/7.419 billion respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.168/1.671 billion respectively. As the leader of skin skin care products, the main brand continues to enjoy the high growth of the track, and the multi brand strategy is ready to contribute to the second growth pole. The current share price corresponds to 59 times of PE in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; Product promotion is not as expected; Product quality management risk
