\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957)
Performance review
The company predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company for the whole year of 21 will be RMB 820 ~ 890 million, with a simultaneous increase of 50.87% ~ 63.75%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 770 ~ 840 million, with a simultaneous increase of 50.20 ~ 63.85%, which is generally in line with the expectation.
Quarter by quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 45.83% / 75.13% / 64.29% / 41.59 ~ 62.92% in each quarter of 21q1 ~ 4. 21q4 parent net profit continues to grow beautifully on the basis of high base, and the growth rate of revenue is expected to be higher than that of net profit.
Business analysis
The main brand “double 11” promotes sales and sells 4Q21, and sales volume is increased. The sales of 21Q4, the flagship Tmall flagship store, increased by 134%, and continued to grow. The cumulative sales of the “double 11” promotion period exceeded 1 billion 500 million yuan, and increased by 65%. The sales volume of Shu Min moisturizing cream was over 4 million bottles, the freeze-dried mask was sold tiktok 2 million boxes, the sunscreen lotion and the essence of Shu Min were sold by 100 million. In December, under the pressure of large market growth, it still increased by 217%, among which the first sale of spot cream was the first and the selling price was 488 yuan / bottle. The spotted essence was incubated for many years (18 years). It has clinical efficacy (the strongest human efficacy test) and the product quality is excellent. It is expected to become another large single product after special cream and sun protection. The tiktok channel of the main brand 21Q4 is accelerating and the 21Q1~4 retail sales volume is 0.38/0.39/1.06/2.08 billion. Shu Min’s special products are sold well in the tiktok version and set, the mask and the water milk set.
Baby has gradually spread out in 21 years, and continues to make efforts in 22 years. The profit level is expected to benchmark the main brand: endorsed by Ma Lin, a professional pediatric dermatologist, the flagship store of Taoda data baby has sold 40 million in 21 years, with an estimated omni-channel revenue of 50 million + and a net interest rate of 10 ~ 20%; In the past 22 years, the product formula / packaging / price has been comprehensively upgraded, and the online and offline teams have been independent from the main brand. The revenue is expected to exceed 100 million and the net interest rate is close to 20%.
Ladies’ anti-aging brand has been launched in 22 years and has strong professional endorsement effect: it is expected to be listed in May 22, focusing on large chain medical beauty brand institutions in first and second tier cities in advance, and adopting point-to-point direct selling mode; At present, it is conducting clinical efficacy verification in combination with the third class a hospital; Cooperate with well-known Huashan and West China hospitals, establish a medical expert committee and enhance brand academic endorsement. It is estimated that the revenue will exceed 100 million and the profit and loss will be balanced in 22 years.
Investment advice
Firmly optimistic about the development of the company relying on the strongest product strength verified by clinical efficacy, the strongest marketing endorsed by experts and the strongest operation ability of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) multi-channel. It is estimated that the EPS in 21-23 years will be 1.94/2.63/3.48 yuan, corresponding to 62 times of pe62 in 22 years, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The industry competition intensifies, the marketing investment is less than expected, and the ban is lifted by major shareholders.
