\u3000\u3000 Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) (600859)
Event: the company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.239-1.399 billion in 2021, an increase of 266% – 313% at the same time; It is estimated that the net profit not attributable to the parent company will be RMB 858-1038 million, an increase of 110% – 155% at the same time.
Comments: the main business is gradually alleviated under the influence of the epidemic, and is expected to increase by 272% – 364% in 21q4. The net profit of the first business in 21 years is included in non recurring profits and losses. The net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 was 263 million yuan, 217 million yuan and 109 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of 230.10%, 5.06% and – 43.50% respectively. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q4 will be 650-810 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 272% – 364%. The company achieved substantial growth in the fourth quarter and the whole year, mainly due to: 1) the main business was gradually alleviated under the influence of the epidemic, actively building a marketing brand, accelerating the adjustment of business resources, continuously deepening brand operation, strictly controlling costs and expenses, and driving the improvement of the company’s performance. 2) After absorbing and merging the shares of shoushang, the net profit of shoushang in 21 years was included in the non recurring profit and loss of Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) year. At the same time, affected by the rise in the share price of trading financial assets held by the company, the profit and loss from changes in fair value increased significantly compared with the same period of last year. 3) The performance base of the company in the same period in 2020 is low. Excluding the non recurring profit and loss, the net profit deducted from non parent company of 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 is 236 million yuan, 223 million yuan and 103 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of 273.5%, 38.43% and – 47.44% respectively. It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company of 21q4 is 300-480 million yuan, with a same increase of 59% – 155%. With the subsequent epidemic gradually alleviated, we expect the company’s tax business will continue to recover gradually.
The tax exemption projects in Beijing have been continuously promoted, and the “14th five year plan” for tourism development has accelerated the promotion of entry-exit tax exemption. The 14th five year plan for tourism development, which was recently issued, points out that China’s tourism should be promoted, inbound tourism should be promoted in an orderly manner, and outbound tourism should be developed steadily; Improve the service level of shopping departure tax rebate, expand the coverage of shopping departure tax rebate policy, and encourage more merchants to voluntarily become tax rebate stores to enrich the variety of goods; We will improve the tax exemption policy system and promote the healthy and orderly development of China’s tax exemption industry. The recovery of inbound and outbound tourism is expected to increase, the level of departure tax rebate is expected to increase, and the tax exemption policy in the city is expected to increase. The company is actively promoting the implementation of various tax exemption projects.
Investment suggestion: consumption continues to recover, which is good for retail business, Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) tax business continues to improve and gradually returns to normal. The company’s tax business has been steadily promoted, and the supply chain of tax-free channels has been built smoothly. As the impact of the epidemic on the company’s main business is gradually alleviated, we raised the company’s net profit for 21 / 22 years to 1.25/1.4 billion yuan respectively (the previous value was 9.5/1.05 billion yuan), corresponding to 25 / 22xpe, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the repeated epidemic risk, the company’s operation risk and performance forecast are the preliminary calculation results, and the specific financial data shall be subject to the company’s disclosure announcement
