\u3000\u3000 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809)
The company's high-end strategy is firm, the potential for nationalization is still sufficient, and the "buy" rating is maintained
The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.23 billion yuan to 5.54 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 70% ~ 80%. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter was 360 million yuan ~ 660 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 42.6% ~ + 7.3%. As the 2021q4 expenditure exceeded the expectation, we lowered the profit forecast from 2021 to 2023. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.32 (- 400) billion yuan, 7.71 (- 360) billion yuan, 10.55 (- 220) billion yuan, EPS will be 436 (- 0.33), 6.32 (- 0.29) yuan and 8.65 (- 0.17) yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 61.5, 42.5 and 31.0 times respectively. The company has a firm high-end strategy, We will continue to promote nationalization, be optimistic about the development potential and maintain the "buy" rating.
In the fourth quarter, the goods were strictly controlled and the cost was accelerated, resulting in a significant slowdown in performance
The company's revenue in the first three quarters was well completed. In the fourth quarter, the company began to consolidate and adjust the market to accumulate strength for development in 2022. The specific performance is to strictly control the product quota. In the public exchange of investors on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the company said that the market inventory had reached the lowest level in history before the peak season began. At the same time, the sales expenses were settled centrally in the fourth quarter, and the investment items included freight, advertising investment and consumer cultivation, resulting in a significant decline in the net interest rate in the fourth quarter.
The quality of the channel is good, the mobile sales of money collection are smooth, and 2022 has a good start and a high growth period
Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the company has been in a state of strict control of goods, 2022q1 has high enthusiasm for collection, smooth collection and delivery, a good start and high availability. With the early market infrastructure construction gaining a harvest, consumer recognition continues to improve. Looking ahead to the 2022 year, the potential of the company is still high. We expect that the company's revenue growth will remain at the forefront of Baijiu listed companies.
The product structure continues to be optimized, focusing on the blue and white revival version. The improvement of net interest rate in the future is a deterministic trend
In 2021, the growth rate of blue and white series was higher than that of products in the middle and low price belt. In 2022, the company focused on the blue and white revival version of the thousand yuan price belt to achieve a breakthrough in the scale of the high-end price belt. At the same time, the overall price increase and reduction of the low-cost product Bofen. The optimization of product structure will effectively boost the gross profit margin. At the same time, the sales and management expense rate will remain stable and decrease. We expect that the annual net profit margin will still increase significantly and there is a large margin of profit elasticity.
Risk tip: macroeconomic fluctuations lead to a decline in demand, and the expansion outside the province is less than expected
